(21)--6.1国际经济学双语讲稿.docx

《(21)--6.1国际经济学双语讲稿.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《(21)--6.1国际经济学双语讲稿.docx（3页珍藏版）》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、批注李1：我们在之前的章节提到过，目前有一个重要 的热点问题:中美之间的贸易争端。P3 As we mentioned in the previous lecture, there is an important hot issue at present: the trade war between China and the United States.批注李2: 2018年7月11日美国政府宣布对从中国进 口的约2000亿美元商品加征10驰关税，8月2曰又将 加征税率提高至25%oOn July 11th, 2018, the U.S. government announced a 10%

2、 tariff on about 200 billion U.S. dollars of goods imported from China. On August second, the U.S. government raised the tariff to 25%.P4 Now, lets consider the following questions: what is the background and reason for the U.S. trump administration to launch a trade war with China?批注李3:现在，让我们思考以下问题

3、：美国特朗普政府发起对中国贸易战的背景和原因是什么？美国对进口自中国的商品加关税，对美国和中国分别意 味着什么？一国制定贸易政策，需要考虑哪些因素？ what does imports tariffs mean for the U.S. and China? What factors should a country take into account when making trade policies?批注李4:每个国家在制定自己的经济政策之前都必 须考虑现实背景。这些政策既要适应国际国内经济形势, 又要满足国内不同群体的利益需求。一般来说，纵向地 看，一个国家从落后的农业国发展为发达的工

4、业国会经 历不同的发展阶段。与此同时，从横向上看，世界各国 的发展水平还存在较大差距。不同发展水平的国家通常 会制定不同的贸易战略。本章将探讨发达国家和发展中 国家的典型贸易政策。批注李5:通常来讲，世界上的所有国家可以按照实际 收入进行排列，分为发达国家和发展中国家。发达国家 包括北美和西欧国家，加上澳大利亚、新西兰和日本。 世界上大多数国家被划分为发展中国家或欠发达国家。 发展中国家大多在非洲、亚洲、拉丁美洲和中东。Every country must consider the realistic background before they formulate their own eco

5、nomic policies. These policies should not only adapt the international and domestic economic situation, but also satisfy the interest demands of different domestic groups. Generally speaking, a country will experience different stages of development lengthways from a backward agricultural one to a d

6、eveloped industrial one. In the meantime, on a horizontal scale, there is a wide gap in the level of development between countries worldwide. Countries with different levels of development usually develop different trade strategies. In this chapter, we will explore typical trade policies of develope

7、d and developing countries.P5 It is a commonly accepted practice to array all nations according to real income and then draw a dividing line between the advanced and developing ones. Included in the category of advanced nations are those of North America and Western Europe, plus Australia, New Zeala

8、nd, and Japan. Most nations of the world are classified as developing, or less developed nations. The developing nations are most of those in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East.P6 Now, lets observe the historical background of three waves of globalization.First stage, from 1870 to 1914

9、, Developed countries completed the industrial revolution. The application of new technologies reduced the cost of transportation and communication. New technologies promoted the development of globalization. But it was interrupted by two world wars and the great depression.批注李6:现在，让我们来了解三次全球化浪潮这一历

10、史背景。 第一阶段，从1870年到1914年，发达国 家完成了工业革命。新技术的应用降低了交通和通讯的 成本，促进了全球化的发展。但它被两次世界大战和 1929大萧条所打断。第二阶段，从1945年到1980年:发达国家控制着制造 业和服务业，我们称之为:富国俱乐部。发达国家通过 更加专业化的分工和产业集聚获得规模经济,第三阶段, 1980年至今，中国、印度、巴西等一些发展中国家进 入世界制造业市场，而其他发展中国家则日益边缘化， 陷入贫困。在这一全球化浪潮中，国际资本流动显著增 加。Second stage, from 1945 to 1980: developed countries con

11、trolled the fields of manufacturing and service, we call them: the rich-country club. Developed countries gain economies of scale through more specialized division of labor and industrial agglomeration.Third stage, from 1980 to now: some developing countries, such as China, India and Brazil, enter i

12、nto the world manufacturing market, but other developing countries are marginalized and gotten in poverty increasingly. In this wave of globalization, international capital flows have increased significantly.P7 Next, we take the United States as an example to illustrate the developed countries choic

13、e between free trade and protectionism. This table shows the average U.S. tariff rate from 1890 to 2008. We can see that the U.S. trade acts are basically consistent with three waves of globalization, causing its tariff rates fluctuated accordingly. In the latest wave of globalization, from 1980 to

14、2008, the average U.S. tariff rate stays below 5 percent. We can say that this tariff rate keepsU.S. in a fair degree of free trade.P8 However, the story changed after Trump became the President of the United States in 2016. Trump pursued his campaign strategy of America first, and implemented prote

15、ctive policies on trade and immigration, such as withdrawing from TPR even threatening to withdraw from WTO, launching a trade war against China, promoting manufacturing back to the U.S. through tax and other means, and strengthening immigration censorship. On trade, an important tool of trumps Amer

16、ica first is to launch a Sino-us trade war to force China to step up intellectual property protection for U.S. businesses and prompt U.S. manufacturing companies to move factories in China back to the U.S.；P9 Why does Trump pursue America first and roll out protectionism? We do a simple analysis bot

17、h internationally and domestically. First, the international context is: the nationalism resurgence in the worldwide. In fact, the nationalism in Europe is even worse than that in America. It is mainly reflected in its attitude towards immigrants, especially Muslim immigrants, which directly led Bri

18、tain Brexit and even led to the disintegration of the European Union. Lets look at the domestic context. In the United States there are a number of states known as the rust belt, alluding to the traditional industrial states such as the northeast, the Midwest and the great lakes region, including Oh

19、io, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin and so on. These regions represent the heart of Americans manufacture. The steelmaking industry and refining industry in Ohio, the automobile industry in Michigan, and the metallurgical coke industry in Pennsylvania are Americans honor in 1980s. But

20、 from 1990s, under the competition from globalization, free trade and global manufacturing, for saving the cost of labor, a large number of manufacturing enterprises in the United States transferred to developing countries represented by China. Especially under the impact of financial crisis in 2008

21、-2009, in these traditional industrial and manufacturing states, industrial decline not only let them rust, but also make their population rapidly shrinking. The loss of jobs and a stagnant wage for ten years have created a great deal of anxiety. President Trumps America first strategy and a series

22、of protectionist policies cater to this situation.After the U.S. announced a series of tariff increases to China, the Chinese government ignored the American demands for intellectual property protection and further opening up of the Chinese market, instead, China increased the import tariffs on U.S.

23、 soybeans and other commodities. This increased the cost of importing soybeans for Chinese companies. Some companies have to import Brazilian soybeans that are more expensive than ones sold in the United States. U.S. soybean farmers are also struggling because China is an important market for them.

24、This kind of reciprocal tariff is undoubtedly a mutual harm.批注李7:接下来，我们以美国为例说明发达国家在自 由贸易和保护主义之间的选择。这张表显示了 1890年 至2008年美国的平均关税税率。我们可以看到，美国 的贸易行为与三次全球化浪潮基本一致，导致其关税税 率也随之波动。在最近的全球化浪潮中，从1980年到 2008年，美国的平均关税保持在5%以下。我们可以说， 这个税率使美国保持了相当程度的自由贸易。批注李8:然而，在2016年特朗普当选美国总统后， 情况发生了变化。特朗普奉行“美国优先”的竞选战略, 在贸易和移民问题上实施

25、保护政策，如退出TPP、甚至 威胁退出WT0、对中国发动贸易战、通过税收等手段 推动“制造业回流美国”、加强移民审查等。在贸易问 题上，特朗普“美国优先”的一个重要手段便是发动中 美贸易战，迫使中国加强对美国企业的知识产权保护， 并促使美国制造企业将在华工厂迁回美国。批注李9:为什么特朗普追求“美国优先”，推行保护 主义?我们从国内和国外两方面原因做了一个简单的分 析。首先，国际背景是民族主义在世界范围内复活。 事实上，欧洲的民族主义甚至比美国还要严重。这主要 体现在对移民特别是穆斯林移民的态度上，这直接导致 了英国的脱欧，甚至使欧盟面临解体。让我们看看美国 国内的情况。在美国有许多州被称为“

26、锈带”，暗指传 统的工业州，如东北、中西部和五大湖地区，包括俄亥 俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、伊利诺伊州和威斯康 星州等。这些地区代表了美国制造业的核心。俄亥俄州 的炼钢和炼制工业、密歇根州的汽车工业和宾夕法尼亚 州的焦炭冶金工业是美国人在20世纪80年代的荣耀。 但是从20世纪90年代开始，在全球化、自由贸易和全 球制造业的竞争下，为了节省劳动力成本，美国大量的 制造业企业转移到了以中国为代表的发展中国家。特别 是在20082009年金融危机的影响下，在这些传统的 工业和制造业州，工业衰退不仅让他们“生锈”，而且 使他们的人口迅速减少。失业和十年来的工资停滞不前 弓I起了极大的焦虑。特朗普

27、总统的“美国优先”战略和 一系列保护主义政策迎合了这种情况。批注李10：美国宣布对中国增加一系列关税后，中国 政府无视美国对保护知识产权和进一步开放中国市场 的要求，反而提高了美国大豆等大宗商品的进口关税来 应对。这增加了中国公司进口大豆的成本。一些公司不 得不进口比美国企业售价更贵的巴西大豆。美国种植大 豆的农民也在苦苦挣扎，因为中国对他们来说是一个重 要的市场。这种相互增税的方式无疑是一种“互相伤害”,P10 There is no doubt that globalization has brought tremendous development to the world, espec

28、ially to China in the reform and opening-up. That is why most economists are so enamored of free trade. Today, globalization and free trade seem to be suffering again. So, where does the globalization and freetrade that the world once pushed so hard for, and which China still insists on today, go from here? This is an important question for everyone to think about.批注李11：毫无疑问，全球化给世界特别是改革开放 后的中国带来了巨大的发展。这就是为什么大多数经济 学家如此迷恋自由贸易。今天，全球化和自由贸易似乎 再次遭遇挑战那么，世界曾经为之奋斗、中国今天仍 坚持不懈的全球化和自由贸易又将何去何从呢？这是 一个值得每个人思考的重要问题。批注李12:好的，下课了，谢谢收看，再见。OK, class is over, thanks for watching, see you later.