外刊英语【Week10 周三】精读讲义 20240306 decline global fertility.pdf

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1、 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 1/11 金融时报金融时报双语双语 全球生育率下降令人不安 Week10 周三 字数 625words 难度系数 全文导读 在社会、经济乃至环境层面种种因素的推动下，全球生育率的下降趋势势不可挡。随之而来的劳动力萎缩等后果不容忽视，但是鼓励生育的政策却各有局限，全球经济体该何去何从？重难点讲义&全文翻译 The troubling decline in the global fertility rate 全球生育率下降令人不安 Developed economies need to be better prepared for a drop in younger

2、 workers 发达经济体需要为年轻劳动力的减少做好更充分的准备 fertility /ftlti/n.the ability of a person,animal,or plant to produce babies,young animals,or seeds 生 育能 力，繁 殖 力 OPP infertility 扫码听音频 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 2/11 Para.1 By the end of this century,almost every country in the world could have a shrinking population.Although

3、people are living longer due to advances in healthcare and a decline in poverty,they are also having fewer babies.Over the past 50 years,the global fertility rate the total number of births per woman has roughly halved to 2.3.In most advanced economies it is already well below the replacement rate o

4、f 2.1,where the population replaces itself from one generation to the next,taking into account mortality.（翻译作业）Developing nations are on a similar downward trajectory.healthcare n.the services that are provided for looking after peoples health,or the activity of doing this 医疗保健 The government has pr

5、omised better health care for all.政府许诺提供更好的全民医疗保健服务。halve /hv/v.to reduce something by a half 将减半 Cash cuts have halved the number of places available on training courses.经费削减使培训名额减少了一半。well adv.a lot,or to a great degree 大大地；远远地 The village is well below sea level.这个村子远低于海平面。replacement rate 人口替代率，

6、也被称为生育率，是为了使一个国家或地区在人口上出生与死亡达到某种相对的平衡而产生的一个比率。具体来说，每个妇女平均生育的孩子的个数，就是人口替换率。联合国推算指出，标准的人口替代率为 2.1，即每名妇女一生生育 2.1 个孩子时，才能保证总人口持平。take something into account to consider or remember something when judging a situation 考虑到；顾及 A good architect takes into account the buildings surroundings.一位好的建筑师会考虑到建筑物的周边环

7、境。mortality /mtlti/n.the number of deaths during a particular period of time among a particular type or group of people 死亡率；死亡数 Mortality from heart disease varies widely across the world.心脏病死亡率世界各地差异很大。划线句 In most advanced economies it is already well below the replacement rate of 2.1【“it”指代上文“fert

8、ility rate“，说明大多数发达国家的生育率低于人口替代率 2.1】,where the population replaces itself from one generation to the next【定语从句，解释了人口替代率为 2.1 的具体意义，即一对夫妇生育 2.1 个孩子，才能保持人口数量不变】,taking into account mortality.【作状语，说明前句所述内容是建立在考虑死亡率的基础上】downward /danwd/adj.moving to a lower level 往较低水平下降的，下跌的 Share prices continued the

9、ir downward trend.股价继续呈下跌趋势。trajectory /trdektri/n.the events that happen during a period of time,which often lead to a particular aim or result 事物的发展轨迹 The decision was certain to affect the trajectory of French politics for some time to 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 3/11 Para.2 come.这一决定在未来的一段时间里必将影响法国的政治轨迹。到本世纪

10、末，几乎没有国家能避开人口减少的问题。虽然医疗进步和贫困减少使人们更为长寿，但他们生育的孩子更少了。在过去 50 年间，全球生育率（即每位妇女生育的孩子总数）大约减半至 2.3。（翻译作业）发展中国家也处于类似的下行轨迹上。The upshot is a decline in the working-age population across the developed world,which will bring significant social,economic and political costs if left unaddressed.Some blame a dystopian

11、 outlook among millennials and Gen Z from the harms their children may cause to the climate,to the harms the climate may also do to them.But while a child-free life has gained appeal among some youngsters,for multiple reasons,the vast majority of under-30s in America who do not have kids still want

12、them.upshot /pt/n.the final result of a situation(某事的)结果结局 The upshot was that after much argument they all agreed to help her.最后的结果是，经过长时间争论，他们全都同意帮助她。address v.if you address a problem,you start trying to solve it（着手）解决，处理问题 Our products address the needs of real users.我们的产品满足真正用户的需要。unaddressed a

13、dj.未处理的，未解决的 划线句 The upshot is a decline in the working-age population across the developed world【作为句子主干，说明上一段展现的生育率下降和人口减少问题产生的后果：适龄劳动力减少】,which will bring significant social,economic and political costs【定语从句修饰“the upshot”，说明这一后果产生的影响】if left unaddressed.【补充完整为“if the upshot is left unaddressed”,强调

14、产生影响的条件：不解决适龄劳动人口下降的问题】dystopian /dstpi/n.an imaginary place where life is extremely difficult and a lot of unfair or immoral things happen 反面乌托邦，反面假想国，敌托邦 想象中生活极其艰难的地方 OPP utopia outlook /atlk/n.your general attitude to life and the world 对生活和世界的看法，观点，态度 Hes got a good outlook on life.他有积极的人生观。mill

15、ennials 千禧一代，指出生于 20 世纪且 20 世纪时未成年，在跨入 21 世纪（即 2000年）以后达到成年年龄的一代人。这代人的成长时期几乎同时和互联网/计算机科学的形成与高速发展时期相吻合。Gen Z Z 世代，Y 世代之后、阿法世代之前的人口统计群体。研究人员和大众媒体将 1990年代中后期作为开始出生年份，将 2010 年代初 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 4/11 Para.3 Para.4 作为结束出生年份。这一世代的特点是数字原生态、信息获取快速、注重个性化和多元化。结果是，发达国家适龄劳动人口减少，若不加以解决，将带来巨大的社会、经济和政治成本。一些人将其归咎于千禧一

16、代和 Z 世代的反乌托邦观念从“他们的孩子可能危害气候”，到“气候也可能危害他们”。不过，虽然没有孩子的生活吸引了一些青年人，但美国绝大多数 30 岁以下没有孩子的人出于多种原因仍然想要孩子。Rather,the long-term drop in the fertility rate is mostly the result of positive socio-economic trends.First,global female labour force participation and education levels have risen over the past half cen

17、tury.This has led to fewer children,or having them later in life.Second,economic development,better welfare systems and lower childhood mortality have reduced the need to have several children to support financial security.labor force all the people who work for a company or in a country 劳动力 securit

18、y n.protection from bad things that could happen to you 保障，保护 This insurance plan offers your family financial security in the event of your death.这份保险能在你死后给你的家人提供经济保障。确切地说，社会经济的向好趋势是造成生育率长期下降的主因。首先，全球女性劳动参与率和受教育水平在过去半个世纪中有所提高，导致了少生和晚育。其次，人们靠生育多个子女以作经济保障的需求也随着经济发展、福利体系的完善以及儿童死亡率的降低而减少了。In the develo

19、ping world,fertility rates are still above the“wanted rate”an estimate of what the fertility rate would be if all unwanted births were avoided according to data compiled by the World Bank.But,in advanced economies couples tend to have fewer children than they want.This is because the hurdles to brin

20、ging up children have also risen.新英文外刊 2024-3-6 5/11 Para.5 unwanted /nwntd/adj.not wanted or needed 不需要的，多余的 an unwanted pregnancy 非意愿怀孕 the World Bank 世界银行，世界银行集团的简称，国际复兴开发银行的通称，也是联合国的一个专门机构；成立于 1945 年，1946 年 6月开始营业，由国际复兴开发银行、国际开发协会、国际金融公司、多边投资担保机构和国际投资争端解决中心五个成员机构组成。hurdle /hdl/n.a problem or dif

21、ficulty that you must deal with before you can achieve something 障碍，困难 Finding enough money for the project was the first hurdle.第一道难关是为该项目筹措足够的资金。bring up to look after and influence a child until he or she is grown up 抚养，养育 He was brought up by his grandparents.他是由祖父母抚养长大的。根据世界银行收集的数据，发展中国家的生育率仍高于

22、“意愿生育率”(没有意外怀孕生子的前提下预估的生育率)。但在发达经济体中，由于养育子女的障碍增多，夫妻们生育的孩子数往往比他们想要的少。Richer and higher-skilled economies come with more parenting costs,as childcare and education requirements tend to be higher.The opportunity costs of looking after kids,in lost earnings or leisure time,are also greater.But in advanc

23、ed economies today,disposable incomes available to raise children have also been squeezed by rising living costs and sluggish wage growth.House prices have soared,and childcare support has often not kept up either.In the UK,some estimates put the cost of raising a child to 18 above 200,000.The avera

24、ge price of a first home in Britain is currently around 244,000.parenting /pernt/n.the skill or activity of looking after your own children 养育（技巧）；抚养 The program aims to teach young men parenting skills.这一计划旨在向年轻男性教授育儿技巧。childcare n.an arrangement in which someone who is trained to look after childr

25、en cares for them while the parents are at work 儿童看护，儿童照管 opportunity costs 机会成本：在经济学中，指为了获得某种利益而放弃的其他利益。通常用于衡量在有限资源下进行选择时所需承担的成本。disposable /dspzbl/adj.available to be used 可以使用的 disposable resources 可支配的资源 squeeze /skwiz/v.to strictly limit the amount of money that is available to a company 新英文外刊

26、2024-3-6 6/11 Para.6 or organization 严格限制 公司或组织的资金；压缩 The government is squeezing the railways investment budget.政府在压缩铁路投资预算 sluggish /slg/adj.moving or reacting more slowly than normal 行动缓慢的；反应迟缓的 Economic recovery has so far been sluggish.经济复苏的速度目前仍然缓慢。soar /s/v.to increase quickly to a high level

27、 猛增，骤升 soaring unemployment 急剧上升的失业率 keep up to manage to do as much or as well as other people 跟上，保持同步 Jacks having trouble keeping up with the rest of the class.杰克很难跟上班里的其他同学。estimate n.a statement of how much a piece of work will probably cost 估计的成本；估价 Quotes and estimates can be prepared by comp

28、uter on the spot.报价和估价可以当场用电脑做出来。在更富裕、科技水平更发达的经济体中，育儿和教育需求往往更高，育儿成本也因此更高。照顾孩子所付出的机会成本无论是收入还是休闲时间的耗费也更多。在当今的发达经济体中，用于养育子女的可支配收入还受到了生活成本增加和薪资增长缓慢的压榨。房价飙升，儿童保育支持也经常跟不上。据一些英国人估计，将一个孩子抚养成人需要 20 万英镑以上的费用。而目前，英国首套房的平均价格约为 24.4 万英镑。The impact of falling birth rates should not be taken lightly.The burden of

29、healthcare and pension spending for older populations will fall on a shrinking workforce.That may lead to higher taxes.Public finances will come under even greater pressure too.Fewer youngsters in the labour market could also limit innovation and productivity growth.take/treat/approach something lig

30、htly to do something without serious thought 轻率对待某事 Divorce is not a matter you can afford to take lightly.离婚的事轻率不得。pension /penn/n.an amount of money paid regularly by the government or company to someone who does not work anymore,for example because they have reached the age when people stop worki

31、ng or because they are ill 养老金，退休金 Many people find it hard to live on a basic state pension.许多人发现仅凭国家基本养老金很难养活自己。workforce n.all the people who work in a particular industry or company,or are available to work in a particular country or area行业的全体从业人员；公司的全体员工；国家或地区的劳动力 Women now represent almost 新英文

32、外刊 2024-3-6 7/11 Para.7 50%of the workforce.如今女性几乎占全部劳动人口的 50%。生育率下降的影响不容忽视。老年人医保服务和养老金支出的负担将落在日益萎缩的劳动力身上，由此可能导致税收增加。公共财政也将面临更大的压力。劳动力市场中年轻人的减少还可能制约创新和生产力增长。Populists push“pronatalist”policies,including tax breaks to have kids,as a solution.Not only do they warp womens choices,there is little eviden

33、ce that they work.Governments and businesses should instead do more to reduce barriers to those who do want children,particularly by making child-rearing a better deal for working parents.This includes boosting childcare support,removing disincentives to work in the tax system and improving parental

34、 leave entitlements.Yet,even Nordic nations with family-friendly policies are experiencing low birth rates.populist /ppjlst/n.someone who tries to be popular with ordinary people and to represent their ideas and opinions 平民主义者；民粹主义者 pronatalist /prnetlst/adj.relating to the idea that it is important

35、 to have children in order to increase the number of people in a country,especially the number of people who are not immigrants(=people who have come to a different country in order to live there permanently)鼓励提高人口出生率的；多生育主义者 tax break a special reduction in taxes 减税，赋税优惠 tax breaks for small busine

36、sses 给小企业的赋税优惠 warp /wp/v.to influence someone in a way that has a harmful effect on how they think or behave 使反常；使有偏见 You mustnt allow your dislike of her to warp your judgment.你不能因为不喜欢她而作出不当的判断。rear /r/v.to look after a person or animal until they are fully grown 养育，抚养孩子；饲养 动物 Its a good place to

37、rear young children.这地方非常适合抚养小孩子成长。boost /bust/v.to increase or improve something and make it more successful 促进，推动，使兴旺 The new resort area has boosted tourism.新的度假区促进了旅游业的发展。disincentive /dsnsentv/n.something that makes people less willing to do something 抑制因素，限制因素 High interest rates can be a disi

38、ncentive to expanding a business.高利率对企业扩张会是个抑制因素。新英文外刊 2024-3-6 8/11 Para.8 parental leave time that a parent is allowed to spend away from work with his or her baby 育儿假 entitlement /ntatlmnt/n.the official right to have or do something,or the amount that you have a right to receive 拥有或获得某物的权利；应得的数额

39、 The paid holiday entitlement is 25 days.可享有的带薪假期为 25 天。Nordic nations 北欧国家，指位于北欧的挪威、瑞典、丹麦、芬兰和冰岛及其附属领土如法罗群岛、格陵兰、扬马延岛、斯瓦尔巴群岛和奥兰的统称。这五国都是世界上高度发达的资本主义国家，社会福利体系在全球范围内处于领先地位。民粹主义推行“鼓励生育”的政策，包括针对生育子女实施减税，以此作为解决方案。这些政策不仅扭曲了妇女的选择，而且事实证明收效甚微。政府和企业应该采取更多行动，为想要孩子的人减少障碍，特别是为在职父母抚养子女提供更好的待遇，包括加强儿童保育支持、减少工作的税收负担以

40、及增强育儿假权利。不过，纵使北欧国家的政策对家庭很友好，当地的出生率也不高。The economic and social forces behind declining births are unlikely to be reversed in the long term.Studies suggest environmental factors may also be affecting fertility.Immigration could be a solution,but the politics remains difficult,and it is only a short-te

41、rm option to propping up workforces with developing countries set to age too.Ultimately,the rich world will have to get used to having fewer youngsters around.That means older workers,AI and automation will have to pick up the slack.prop /prp/v.to support something by leaning it against something,or

42、 by putting something else under,next to,or behind it 把靠在上；支住，支撑 The government introduced measures to prop up the stock market.政府推出措施来扶持股市。set adj.(to do)sthlikely to do sth;ready for sth or to do sth 有可能的；做好准备的 Interest rates look set to rise again.看样子利率又要提高了。ultimately /ltmtli/adv.finally,after e

43、verything else has been done or considered 最后，最 终 a long but ultimately successful campaign 一场历时很久但最终成功的运动 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 9/11 automation /tme/n.the use of computers and machines instead of people to do a job 自动化 take up/pick up the slack to do something that needs to be done because someone else is

44、 no longer doing it 接过别人停下的工作 从长远看，导致生育率下降的经济和社会因素不太可能转变。研究表明，环境因素也可能影响生育率。移民或许是一种解决方案，但在政治层面仍然困难重重，而且在发展中国家也将步入老龄化的情况下，这只是支撑劳动力的短期选择。最终，富裕国家不得不适应年轻人减少的现实。这意味着老年工人、人工智能和自动化将不得不弥补空缺。全文思维导图作业 请大家阅读全文后，将思维导图补充完整。方法提示：思维导图旨在督促大家从整体框架上把握文章逻辑，如果读完文章对文章所讲内容一头雾水，思维导图无从下手，说明还没有读懂，继续重复通读几遍文章，读懂文章之后再完成思维导图。_ _

45、 _ _ _ _ 新英文外刊 2024-3-6 10/11 翻译作业 翻译作业：请将以下句子翻译成中文，要求理解准确、表达流畅 翻译作业：In most advanced economies it is already well below the replacement rate of 2.1,where the population replaces itself from one generation to the next,taking into account mortality.(para.1)写作练习 文章第三段第三句 This has led to fewer children

46、,or having them later in life.以及第六段第三句 That may lead to higher taxes.句子中 lead to something，表示“to cause something to happen or cause someone to do something 导致，造成”。例如，the events that led to the start of the First World War 导致第一次世界大战爆发的事件 相似表达有：1 result in something to make something happen 导致，造成：an a

47、ccident that resulted in the death of two passengers 导致两名乘客死亡的事故 2 bring about something to make something happen 引起，导致，造成:How can we bring about a change in attitudes?我们如何才能改变态度？3 give rise to something to be the reason why something happens,especially something bad or unpleasant 引起导致某事尤指坏事 His speech gave rise to a bitter argument.他的讲话引发了激烈的争论。牛刀小试：新英文外刊 2024-3-6 11/11 请使用以上表达，将句子翻译成英文 1.毁掉热带雨林给环境造成了巨大的破坏。2.总统的缺席引发了对他健康状况的猜测。