泡沫经济.ppt

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1、泡沫经济(bubble/foam economy)及其介绍一、概念二、三个阶段三、形成原因四、历史事件（起因，高潮，结束）五、事件分析与本节总结虚拟资本（Fictitious Capital）是以有价证券(portfolio investment:stock,bond,real estate mortgage)（包括股票、债券、不动产抵押单）等形式存在的，能给持有者带来一定收入流量的的资本；现实资本（Actual Capital）就是以生产要素(factor of production:land,capital,labor,entrepreneur)形式和商品形式存在的实物形态的资本。泡沫经济

2、(Foam Economy/Bubble Economy)是指虚拟资本(Fictitious Capital)过度增长与相关交易持续膨胀(overinflating)日益脱离实物资本（Actual Capital）的增长和实业部门的成长，金融证券(stock and securities)、地产价格(real estate price)飞涨，投机交易(speculation)极为活跃的经济现象。概念：概念：返回The term bubble,in reference to financial crises,originated in the 17111720 British South Sea

3、 Bubble,This was one of the earliest modern financial crises;other episodes were referred to as manias,as in the Dutch tulip mania.The metaphor indicated that the prices of the stock were inflated and fragile expanded based on nothing but air,and vulnerable to a sudden burst,as in fact occurred.泡沫经济

4、有三个阶段：泡沫经济有三个阶段：泡沫的形成阶段 forming of bubble economy泡沫的膨胀阶段 Inflation of bubble economy泡沫的溃灭阶段collapse of bubble economy返回 Reasons-Liquidity（货币的自由流通）One possible cause of bubbles is excessive monetary liquidity in the financial system,inducing lax or inappropriate lending standards by the banks,Excessi

5、ve monetary liquidity(easy credit,large disposable incomes)potentially occurs while banks are lowering of interest rates and flushing the financial system with money supplyWhen interest rates are going down,investors tend to avoid putting their capital into savings accounts.Instead,investors tend to

6、 leverage their capital by borrowing from banks and invest the leveraged capital in financial assets such as equities and real estate.Greater Fool TheoryBubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants(the fools)who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it

7、 to other speculators(the greater fools)at a much higher price).The bubbles continue as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset.The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no lon

8、ger find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price.Extrapolation(推断）Extrapolation is projecting historical data into the future on the same basis;if prices have risen at a certain rate in the past,they will continue to rise at that rate forever.The argument is that investors tend to extrapolate

9、past extraordinary returns on investment of certain assets into the future,causing them to overbid those risky assets in order to attempt to continue to capture those same rates of return.When investors feel that they are no longer well compensated for holding those risky assets,they will start to d

10、emand higher rates of return on their investments.Herding(羊群效应理论，从众心理）Another related explanation used in behavioral finance lies in herd behavior,the fact that investors tend to buy or sell in the direction of the market trend.This is sometimes helped by technical analysis that tries precisely to d

11、etect those trends and follow them.郁金香事件郁金香事件 Tulip mania(top 11637)：17世纪，曾经的欧洲金融中心、东方贸易霸主荷兰，因一个小小的郁金香球茎竟然导致了其世界头号帝国的衰落。返回事件的起因十六世纪末高雅脱俗的郁金香由于一次偶然的机会进入了荷兰人的生活，一时间成为上层社会的宠儿。或许是爱美之心人皆有之，也或许是物以稀为贵，在舆论的鼓吹下，荷兰全国上下都开始为郁金香疯狂。苏格兰历史学家查尔斯麦凯对这次郁金香狂热作了非常生动的描写：“谁都相信，郁金香热将永远持续下去，世界各地的有钱人都会向荷兰发出订单，无论什么样的价格都会有人付帐。欧

12、洲的财富正在向须得海岸集中，在受到如此恩惠的荷兰，贫困将会一去不复返。无论是贵族、市民、农民，还是工匠、船夫、随从、伙计，甚至是扫烟囱的工人和旧衣服店里的老妇，都加入了郁金香的投机。无论处在哪个阶层，人们都将财产变换成现金，投资于这种花卉。在没有交易所的小镇，大一点的酒吧就是进行郁金香交易的拍卖场。酒吧既提供晚餐，同时也替客人确认交易。这样的晚餐会，有时会有二三百人出席。为了增加顾客的满足感，餐桌或者餐具柜上往往整齐地摆放着一排排大花瓶，里面插满了盛开的郁金香。”事件的高潮事件的高潮事件的结束事件的结束泡沫膨胀到极点后的一个必然结果：泡沫溃灭事态出现了失控的局面，政府不得不出面解决 1637年

13、4月27日，荷兰政府决定终止所有合同，禁止投机式的郁金香交易。几乎是在一夜之间，不知有多少人成为不名分文的穷光蛋，富有的商人变成了乞丐，一些大贵族也陷入无法挽救的破产境地。事件分析事件分析 这次的郁金香事件是社会集体投机赚钱的获利心理造成的，对利益狂热的追求，造成了他们对郁金香价格的大肆吹捧，而使郁金香的价格大大超出实际。后果是迟早爆炸的炸弹传来传去，落到最后的人倒霉，并会造成社会经济恶性动荡，损害了经济本来的发展趋势。August,2007,an economic crisis happened in America.According to bubble economy,can you l

14、ist the reasons for this economic crisis?美国金融危机爆发的重要原因之一美国政府不断放宽了对金融监督的政策（loosen the policy on finance)，促使金融产品出现了证券化、虚拟化的现象，助长了金融市场的投机活动(speculations)。在于金融机构(Financial organizations)为了逐利而不惜降低借贷标准(subprime mortgage loan 次级抵押贷款)。金融机构为了营销(marketing)推出了一系列创新产品，包括所谓的零首付(zero yuan first payment)、无抵押贷款(no

15、mortgage loan)，以及随意打包的新的金融工具等。Is there bubble economy in Chinese property?1.Financial policy:Increase the interest rateBank of China improve the deposit reserve of other banks2.Social policy:set house purchase restrictionsbuild more and more economical houseslevy property tax存款准备金率（deposit-reserve r

16、atio）是指金融机构(Financial Organizations)为保证客户提取存款(money withdrawal)和资金清算(capital clearing)需要而准备的在中央银行(central bank)的存款(deposit)，中央银行要求的存款准备金占其存款总额的比例就是存款准备金率近五次存款准备金率调整近五次存款准备金率调整时间调整前调整后调整幅度（百分点）2011年5月18日20.50%21.00%0.52011年4月21日20.00%20.50%0.52011年3月25日19.50%20.00%0.52011年2月24日19.00%19.50%0.52011年1月20日18.50%19.00%0.5Company Logo上调原因上调原因1、to control the excessive increase in the amount of credit loans.2、to increase the banks ability to resist disaster3、to avoid economic overheating in China.