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1、Step O ff the Gas:International public finance,naturalgas,and clean alternatives in theGlobal SouthIISD REPORTGreg MuttittShruti SharmaMostafa MostafaKjell KhneAlex DoukasIvetta GerasimchukJoachim Roth 2021 International Institute for Sustainable Development|IISD.orgJune 2021Step Off the Gas:Interna

2、tional public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global South 2021 International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentPublished by the International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentThis publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 Inte

3、rnational License.International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentThe International Institute for Sustainable Development(IISD)is anaward-winning independent think tank working to accelerate solutionsfor a stable climate,sustainable resource management,and faireconomies.Our work inspires better d

4、ecisions and sparks meaningfulaction to help people and the planet thrive.We shine a light on whatcan be achieved when governments,businesses,non-profits,andcommunities come together.IISDs staff of more than 120 people,plusover 150 associates and consultants,come from across the globe andfrom many d

5、isciplines.With offices inWinnipeg,Geneva,Ottawa,andToronto,our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries.Head Office111 Lombard Avenue,Suite 325Winnipeg,ManitobaCanada R3B 0T4Tel:+1(204)958-7700Website:www.iisd.orgTwitter:IISD_newsIISD is a registered charitable organization in Canada and has 501(

6、c)(3)status in the United States.IISD receives core operating support fromthe Province of Manitoba and project funding from governments insideand outside Canada,United Nations agencies,foundations,the privatesector,and individuals.Step Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,andclean al

7、ternatives in the Global SouthJune 2021Written by Greg Muttitt,Shruti Sharma,Mostafa Mostafa,Kjell Khne,Alex Doukas,Ivetta Gerasimchuk,and Joachim Roth.Photo:Pressure meter on natural gas pipeline(Shutterstock)IISD.orgiiStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives

8、 in the Global SouthAcknowledgementsThis report is published by the International Institute for Sustainable Development(IISD),supported by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment,Nature Conservationand Nuclear Safety(BMU)and coordinated by Deutsche Gesellschaft fr InternationaleZusammenarbei

9、t(GIZ).Data on international public finance were researched using Oil Change Internationals Shiftthe Subsidies database.Country studies were based on semi-structured interviews withcountry experts and officials,supplemented by desk research.Additional research was contributed by BalasubramanianViswa

10、nathan.The authors are grateful to the following reviewers:Julia Schweiger and Elias Spiekemann(Bundesministerium fr Umwelt,Naturschutz&Nukleare Sicherheit,BMU);Mohamed ElSobki(Cairo University);Isabel Geppert,Stefan Mager,and Florian Remann(GIZ);Diego diRisio(Global Gas and Oil Network);Edwin Malag

11、n and Adrien Vogt-Schilb(Inter-AmericanDevelopment Bank);Chris Beaton,Lucile Dufour,and Peter Wooders(IISD);Swati MitchelleDsouza(National Foundation for India);Fernando Cabrera(Observatorio Petrolero Sur);Lorne Stockman and Bronwen Tucker(Oil Change International);James Morrissey(OxfamAmerica);Simo

12、n Pirani(Oxford Institute for Energy Studies);Pia Carazo(Quantum Leap);Hannah McKinnon(Sequoia Foundation);Youba Sokona(South Centre);Meena Raman(Third World Network).IISD.orgiiiStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthExecutive SummaryOverv

13、iewThis report examines international public financing for natural gas expansion in the GlobalSouth and the choices countries face in how to develop their energy systems while meetingsocio-economic needs.The report finds that:Gas projects in low-and middle-income countries are receiving more interna

14、tionalpublic finance than any other energy source:four times as much as wind or solar.This investment risks driving a new dash for gas that locks countries into a high-carbon pathway,imperilling their economic future and the global climate.Gas is not needed,as renewable-based alternatives for most o

15、f its uses are eitheralready cheaper or are expected to be within a few years.Renewable electricity is an increasingly cost-competitive and effective means ofproviding clean cooking,helped by improvements in the efficiency of electric stovesand devices.Countries in the Global South need greater inte

16、rnational support to finance cleanenergy projects,including to help integrate renewables into often weak or unstableelectricity grids.The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed how rapid global change can affect countries indeeply inequitable ways and re-emphasizes the importance of building resilient and so

17、ciallyjust economies.As economic resources remain constrained in the coming years,it will bevital that scarce public funds are devoted to building back better.This report recommends that international public finance should no longer support fossilfuels,focusing instead on creating the enabling condi

18、tions for countries to build energysystems based on renewable energy.IISD.orgivStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthInternational Public Finance Is Driving a New Dash for GasThe greatest impacts of climate change will be felt in the Glob

19、al South,especially by thepoorest people.Southern countries differ widely in their circumstances and needs.What theyhave in common is that they have done less to date to cause climate change and have access tofewer resources to mitigate it compared to the wealthier countries of the Global North.Ofte

20、n,significant portions of their populations are energy-poor,while energy demand is growing fast.The gas industry increasingly sees its future growth potential in the Global South.Gasadvocates are calling on governments to pave the way for gas expansion,especially in Asia andAfrica.New liquefied natu

21、ral gas(LNG)exporters,such as the United States and Australia,are seeking new markets while gas companies look for new resources to extract and export.Efforts to expand gas are being underpinned by international public finance from multilateraldevelopment banks(MDBs)and from G20 bilateral financial

22、institutions such as bilateraldevelopment banks and export credit agencies.While accounting for only a small portion oftotal energy finance,international public finance plays a disproportionate role:it both unlocksprivate finance by reducing project risk and gives signals that influence wider invest

23、menttrends.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA),public funding and policysupport for gas in these economies in the coming years will be a key factor in determiningwhether global gas demand increases into the 2030s.Using Oil Change Internationals Shift the Subsidies database,this report

24、finds that inlow-and middle-income countries:Gas projects received an average of nearly USD 16 billion in international publicfinance per year from 2017 to 2019.This is more than any other source of energyand four times as much as wind or solar.The majority of this finance is going to power generati

25、on,where gas is least needed,and high-emission LNG infrastructure that risks locking large sections of the economyinto gas.International public finance invested in all fossil fuels was more than twice as highas for clean energy.Initial data on the MDBs direct project finance shows that they continue

26、 to prioritizegas during the COVID-19 pandemic:gas accounted for more than 75%of MDBssupport for fossil fuels in 2020.IISD.orgvStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthFigure ES1.International public finance for energy in low-and middle-inco

27、mecountries,annual average 20172019181614121086420Low incomeLower-middle incomeUpper-middle incomeSources:Oil Change International,n.d.;World Bank,2021.Gas Investments Are Environmentally Damaging andEconomically RiskyGas advocates have long argued that gas can serve as a“bridge fuel”until renewable

28、 energycan be developed at a larger scale.Today,this idea is obsolete for three reasons.First,theclimate crisis is now urgent:remaining atmospheric space is so limited that there is noroom for any additional fossil fuels.Second,since wind,solar,and energy storage and othersupporting technologies hav

29、e fallen rapidly in cost and are deployable at a large scale,thereis no longer a need for a bridge.Third,recent findings on the extent of methane leakagefrom gas infrastructure undermine claims of environmental benefits over other fossil fuels.Furthermore,now that renewables are competitive,addition

30、al gas tends to displace renewableenergy as well as coal.Gas starts to look more like a wall than a bridge,impeding rather thanenabling the energy transition.In the median 1.5C scenario used in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5C,global gas useis halved from 2020 to 2040.Most scenarios see power generat

31、ion almost completelydecarbonized by mid-century,even in a 2C world.IISD.orgviStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthAs climate limits drive an accelerating global energy transition,the falling costs of renewableenergy will squeeze the who

32、le gas supply chain,creating financial risks for investments in bothproducing and consuming facilities.Meanwhile,long-lived infrastructure can lock an economyinto a carbon-intensive development path that is difficult to leave.Countries are in danger ofbeing left behind in the global energy transitio

33、n,saddled with stranded assets,more expensiveenergy,dependence on imports,and trading disadvantages.Some countries plan to increase their domestic gas production either to generate exportrevenue or to reduce dependence on imports.However,as global energy markets change,theselook like increasingly ri

34、sky investments.Evidence of the resource curse suggests racing to stayahead of the energy transition is likely to lead to disappointment:without taking time to buildinstitutions and domestic supply chains,much of the revenues and jobs will flow overseas.Ironically,domestic gas production can increas

35、e dependency on imports by creating publicexpectations and political pressure for gas subsidies,which then encourages consumptionto grow faster than production.Rapid gas development in Mozambique is already showingsigns of a“presource curse”through deepening public debt,increasing militarization,and

36、exacerbation of militia violence.Figure ES2:Global gas use in 1.5C scenarios in IPCCs Special Report on 1.5C,compared to the International Energy Agencys Stated Policies scenario6,000Currenttrajectory(2.7C)5,0004,000Risk ofstrandedassets3,0002,0001,0001.5C02010IEA STEPS scenario20202030Median2040Int

37、erquartile range1.5C scenarios(IPCC):Sources:IEA,2020a;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis&IntegratedAssessment Modeling Consortium,2018.IISD.orgviiStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthGas Is Not Needed,as Renewable-Base

38、d AlternativesAre Available and Affordable for Most UsesThe Global South has the worlds largest wind and solar resources,and harnessing themcreates opportunities to develop without depending on volatile international markets.For the majority of present uses of gas,alternative technologies are either

39、 already cheaper thangas or are expected to become cheaper within a few years(Figure ES2).Often,the lowest-costdecisions are those that reduce energy requirements,such as efficiency standards,insulation,or urban planning.For the minority of gas uses where clean alternatives are not yet availableor a

40、ffordablesuch as in heavy industryrapid technological development is underway,withcommercialization expected by the early 2030s.In most countries for which data are available,wind and solar now generate power at a lowercost than gas.Battery costs are also falling rapidly,and in some countries,the co

41、mbinedcost of wind or solar with batteries is less than that of flexible“peaker”gas plants.Tropicalcountries have a strong advantage,as greater sunlight consistency through the year makessolar energy strongly pairable with batteries,creating less need for longer-term storage.At thelow penetration le

42、vels currently seen in most of the Global South,grid management needs forintegrating renewables are modest and low-cost;well-tested approaches will be adequate untilpenetration rises,by which time storage costs will have fallen further.Gas is a poor solution to the energy access problem.Of the 800 m

43、illion people worldwide whoare lacking electricity,85%live in rural areas where distributed renewable energy is,in mostcases,better able to provide electrification at a lower cost.To provide clean cooking fuels forthe 3 billion people relying on dangerous solid biomass,costly plans to expand natural

44、 gasconnections to residential consumers will face competition from electric solutions due to bothreductions in the cost of renewables and improvements in the efficiency of electric stoves andcooking devices.As sustainable alternatives become cheaper and easier to implement,and since they are moresu

45、ited to meeting development needs,there is little rationale for international public financeinstitutions to continue supporting gas at scale in the Global South.IISD.org viiiStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthFigure ES3.Status of alter

46、natives to gasCOSTS COMPETITIVE WITH GASPercentages represent share of low-andmiddle-income countries use of gasNow2020s2030s2040s Not knownAlreadycost-competitivewith gasWind and solarPowergeneration*46%*including combinedheat and power(primarily in FormerSoviet Union)Wind and solarwith storageCost

47、s fallingElectric cookersResidential&commercial19%Immersion heating,solar thermal,districtheat,insulationHeat pumpsConventionalelectric heatingLight industry11%Heat pumpsFeedstocksGreen hydrogen9%Hydrogen or electrickilns,renewable steamChemicals industry4%Electric vehiclesMostly oil and gasNot need

48、edproduction/processingRoad transport 3%Direct reduction of ironOther energy industry 3%Biomass/wasteIron&steel 2%Cement 2%Electric kilnsOther 1%Sources:see Section 4.IISD.orgixStep Off the Gas:International public finance,natural gas,and clean alternatives in the Global SouthInternational Public Fi

49、nance Can Enable the Global Southto Overcome Energy Transition ChallengesInternational public finance can play a vital role in overcoming three challenges Southerncountries often face in building renewable-based energy systems.The first obstacle isobtaining finance when private investors perceive hi

50、gh risks and low returns.The second isaccessing and benefiting from technology whose patents and manufacturing capacity are heldabroad.The third is integrating renewable energy into grids that suffer from blackouts due topoorly maintained infrastructure,ineffective grid management,and financially we