服务业供给侧结构性改革与跨越中等收入陷阱_英文_张建华.pdf

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1、 Social Sciences in China PressSocial Sciences in China, 2021Vol. 42, No. 1, 77-96, http:/dx.doi.org/10.1080/02529203.2021.1895502*This paper was funded by the Major Project of the National Social Science Fund of China, “Study on the Implementation of the New Concept of Development and the Moderniza

2、tion of National Governance” (Grant No.: 17VZL002) and the Youth Project “Quantitative Identification, Early Risk Warning and Countermeasures against the Middle Income Trap under the New Normal” (Grant No.: 16CJL015).Supply-Side Structural Reform in the Service Industry and Escaping the Middle Incom

3、e Trap*Zhang Jianhuaa and Cheng Wenba and b School of Economics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology 已占中国经济主导地位的服务业，其内部消费性和生产性的结构有待优化。通过服务业的供给侧结构性改革，推进先进制造业和现代服务业的深度融合，促进形成强大国内市场，是中国跨越中等收入陷阱的关键之举。选取45个非石油出口型经济体1950-2010年的数据，刻画世界服务业结构的典型事实，并将其中跨越中等收入陷阱的亚洲经济体与陷入陷阱的拉美经济体作为典型进行比较，进而构建包含消费性服务业、

4、生产性服务业和人力资本供给的匹配模型，揭示了服务业结构升级视角下的中等收入陷阱形成机理和跨越条件。大力发展生产性服务业，提升公共服务业对培育积累人力资本数量与质量的供给，实现高层次人力资本与知识密集型服务业的匹配效应，将推动中国经济结构转型升级，迈向高质量发展。关键词：生产性服务业消费性服务业中等收入陷阱供给侧结构性改革The internal consumption and production structure of the service industry that now dominates the Chinese economy needs to be optimized. Int

5、roducing supply-side structural reform to improve the in-depth integration of advanced manufacturing and the modern service industry and promoting a strong domestic market is the key to escaping the middle income trap. We use 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies representing the struct

6、ural evolution of the service industry worldwide to compare Asian economies that have passed through the middle income trap with Latin American counterparts that remain stuck in the trap, and thence proceed to construct a matched model that covers the consumption and production service industries an

7、d their supply of human capital, with the aim of identifying the formative mechanisms and conditions for escaping the middle income trap through upgrading the structure of the service industry. Substantially developing the production service sector, raising the supply of public services so as to cul

8、tivate the quantity and quality of human capital, and matching senior-level human capital with knowledge-intensive service 78Social Sciences in Chinaindustries will propel the upgrading and transformation of Chinas economic structure toward high-quality development.Keywords: production service indus

9、tries, consumption service industries, middle income trap, supply-side structural reformThe launch of reform and opening up in 1978 was followed by forty years of rapid development. Chinas economy is now standing at a historic starting point. In terms of the aggregate economy, the latest World Bank

10、classification (2018) shows that Chinas gross national income (GNI) per capita in 2017 was $8,690, between the lower limit ($3,896) and the upper limit ($12,055) of the upper-middle income group (calculated by the Atlas method).1 This means that China has completed the first half of the journey from

11、 an upper-middle income country to a high income one, and is currently embarking on the second half of the journey. In terms of economic structure, Chinese tertiary industrys share of added value has been the highest of all industry sectors for five years in a row, exceeding the sum of primary and s

12、econdary industry in 2015 for the first time and reaching 51.6 percent of GDP in 2017.2 Chinas economy has entered a stage of service-dominated development. However, merely expanding the share of services in GDP does not guarantee stable and sustainable macroeconomic growth, since the increase in th

13、e proportion of Chinas tertiary industry could be caused by the upgrading of consumption demand, a change in the conditions and environment of services supply, or further refinement of the industrial division of labor. An even more likely reason for these changes is the relative decline of manufactu

14、ring industry as a result of premature deindustrialization.3 Understanding the causes of the relative changes in the service industry and propelling the optimization and upgrading of its internal structure will therefore significantly affect the sustainable and healthy development of the overall eco

15、nomy in the future. Unlike manufacturing output, services output has the attributes of intangibility and high heterogeneity; production service industries in particular have an intensive intermediate-input character and are highly knowledge- and technology-intensive (KTI), with increasing returns an

16、d high barriers to entry. It is therefore essential to improve the quality of modern service industries.4 In China, modern high-end service industries have an inadequate share of the total, while traditional low-end service industries have a relatively high share. The latter play a minor role in ind

17、ustrial transformation and upgrading and reduce the overall productivity 1The World Bank, “World Bank Country and Lending Groups,” http:/data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups.2See “The Service Sector Continues to Lead and the New Economy Continues to Grow.” 3See Huang Qunhui, Huang Yan

18、ghua, He Jun et al., “A Study of Chinas Industrialization Strategy at the Upper Middle Income Stage”; “The Economist: Be Alert to the Risk of Premature Deindustrialization.” 4Liu Zhibiao, “The Development of the Modern Service Industry and Supply-Side Structural Reform.” Zhang Jianhua and Cheng Wen7

19、9of the service sector.5 On the other hand, promoting the development of human capital in education, healthcare, culture, sports and other non-material production sectors can accelerate the building of an innovative talent pool and release innovative dynamism, achieving the in-depth integration of p

20、roduction and non-production services and a fundamental combination of advanced manufacturing and modern services. At present, the major problems in Chinas service sector are insufficient support for the development of high-end manufacturing; an urgent need to raise aggregate output; and the need to

21、 optimize the internal structure. The key to economic restructuring is to prevent repetition of the Latin American economies mistakes of premature deindustrialization and to focus on supporting the high-quality development of the real economy and promoting high-end manufacturing through supply-side

22、structural reform of the service sector.This paper consists of five parts: Section I provides a brief literature review; Section II analyzes representative facts about the structural evolution of the service industry worldwide and escaping the middle income trap; Section III constructs a matched mod

23、el that covers the consumption and production service industries and the supply of human capital; Section IV uses numerical simulation of the model to take a further look at the paths to escaping the middle income trap in different policy mixes; and Section V provides our conclusions. I. Literature

24、ReviewThe term “middle income trap” first appeared in An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, published by the World Bank in 2007.6 Discussion of the existence and causes of the middle income trap have become increasingly heated in scholarly circles in China and abroad.7 Examining the

25、changes in the dominant driving forces behind economic growth and structural transformation is of particular importance, as such a trap may occur at all levels of per capita national income.8 On reaching the middle-income level, many economies see a fall in the proportion of the manufacturing indust

26、ry and a rise in that of the service industry. The rise in service sector share is not necessarily the result of the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure; rather, it may be driven by demand or supply, by further industrial division of labor, the relative decline of manufacturing or

27、 relative price changes in the service industry. That is, it does not necessarily represent a real improvement in the production capacity of the service sector.5Zhang Xiaolan and Sun Chengyu, “Improving the Developmental Quality of Chinas Service Sector Starting with Supply-Side Structural Reform.”

28、6I. Gill et al., An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, pp. 17-18.7See L. Glawe and H. Wagner, “The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned: A Literature Survey,” pp. 507-538; Fang Cai, “Is There a Middle-income Trap? Theories, Experience and Relevance to Chi

29、na,” pp. 49-61.8See Gong Gang, Wei Xiye and Yang Xianming, “Building a National Innovation System with Chinese Characteristics to Vault over the Middle Income Trap.” 80Social Sciences in ChinaBaumols cost disease (the Baumol effect), mentioned frequently in the literature on services, denotes the in

30、crease in the cost of goods and services in sectors that have experienced no labor productivity growth compared with those that have.9 Using a two-sector model of labor productivity differences and unbalanced growth, Baumol explained the formative mechanism of the “cost disease” in the service secto

31、r.10 He subsequently modified the model, introducing the concept of asymptotic stagnancy sectors, referring to those sectors whose labor productivity grows rapidly at the beginning but then tends to stagnate.11 On this basis, he argued that economic growth would stagnate as the labor force continued

32、 to shift to services. Fuchs has verified this view by making an empirical analysis of the 1929-1965 statistics for the US service sector.12 Many scholars, however, have questioned Baumols views, and later theorists have tended to approach the topic by specifying micro-level production functions and

33、 macro-level general equilibrium models.The microeconomic approach, under the assumption of perfect competition, simply studies partial equilibrium from the input-output point of view y, without considering the consumer utility function. When service industry products are used as intermediate rather

34、 than final goods, economic growth will not stagnate, nor will the service industry suffer from the “cost disease.” This argument is represented by Oulton.13 Sasaki expands the Oulton model, holding that the service industry not only provides manufacturing industry with intermediate goods, but also

35、directly offers surplus products to consumers as final goods. He finds, however, that the labor force in the manufacturing sector will gradually shift to the service sector and that the economic growth rate will tend to decline in the long run.14The macroeconomic approach, based on general equilibri

36、um theory, introduces consumption of services into the utility function and the human capital accumulation function, holding that a sustained overall economic growth rate can be promoted through human capital accumulation; its positive effect that can offset the negative effect caused by the transfe

37、r of the labor force to the service sector, thus preventing Baumols cost disease. This proposition was first put forward by Pugno.15 Cheng Dazhong and Wang Rui have expanded Pugnos model by ceasing to assume that the service industrys labor growth rate is 0. They conclude that consumption of service

38、s promotes human capital accumulation 9William J. Baumol, “Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis,” pp. 415-426; V.R. Fuchs, The Service Economy.10William J. Baumol, “Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis,” pp. 415-426.11William J. Baumol, Sue Ann

39、e Batey Blackman and Edward Wolff, “Unbalanced Growth Revisited: Asymptotic Stagnancy, New Evidence,” pp. 806-817.12V.R. Fuchs, The Service Economy.13N. Oulton, “Must the Growth Rate Decline? Baumols Unbalanced Growth Revisited,” pp. 605-627.14H. Sasaki, “The Rise of Service Employment and Its Impac

40、t on Aggregate Productivity Growth,” pp. 438-459.15M. Pugno, “The Service Paradox and Endogenous Economic Growth,” pp. 99-115. Zhang Jianhua and Cheng Wen81and thus increases the economic growth rate.16 The human capital accumulation provided by public service industries and the innovation drivers b

41、rought about by production service industries are the key to overall labor productivity growth in the service sector. Throughout history, most of the economies stuck in the middle income trap have experienced the spread of inefficient services and Baumols cost disease, whereas those economies that h

42、ave vaulted over the middle income trap have had an advanced structure of knowledge- and technology-intensive services.In short, in terms of optimizing the structure of the service industry, the economic logic underlying the middle income trap can be expressed as follows. The consumption service ind

43、ustries take the output of production service industries as intermediate input; because the upgrading of their labor productivity is limited, their productivity growth depends on the productivity upgrading of production service industries. The latters R&D and productivity upgrading rely heavily on t

44、he cultivation and accumulation of high-quality human capital. If employees are unwilling to invest in human capital or the education sector is too inefficient to foster human capital, high-quality human capital will be in short supply. In its absence, production service industries will stagnate, ex

45、acerbating the fall in the productivity of consumption services, with the result that those economies dominated by services are caught in the stagnation of the middle income trap. Upgrading the service industry structure at the middle income stage is therefore the key to vaulting over the middle inc

46、ome trap.II. Representative Facts in the Structural Evolution of the Service Industry and Escaping the Middle Income TrapThe escape from the middle income trap achieved through the interaction between the achievement of high value-added in the production service industries and improvement of the pro

47、ductivity of the consumption service industries makes high demands on the development of the sectors that foster and accumulate human capital. The development of both production services and the human capital production sector is the key to escaping the middle income trap. We need to study the gener

48、al evolutionary laws of the internal structure of the service sector and provide a specific analysis of the significant differences in internal structure at different levels of GDP per capita between the high-income economies that have crossed over the middle income trap and the middle-income econom

49、ies that are unable to extricate themselves from this trap.We used 1950-2010 data from 45 non-oil-exporting economies with populations over three million in 201517 to describe representative facts relating to the structural evolution of 16Cheng Dazhong and Wang Rui, “Preference for Services, Human C

50、apital Accumulation and the Service Paradox: Expanded Pugnos Model and Simulation Based on Data of China.” 17These economies are Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, the UK, Greece,