2023美国对华出口报告-19页-WN6.pdf

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1、 US Exports to China Goods and Services Exports to China and the Jobs They Support,by State and Congressional District 2023 US-China Business Council 2023 US Exports to China Generously sponsored by US-China Business Council 2023 1 US Exports to China Executive Summary US exports to China support a

2、broad swath of the US economy.These exports contribute to American livelihoods across the country.This report explores the latest comprehensive data available for both US goods(2022)and services(2021)exports to China,as well as the American jobs(2021)they support.China was the United States third-la

3、rgest goods export market in 2022 and its sixth-largest services export market in 2021.For combined goods and services exports in 2021,China was the top export market for four states,in the top three markets for 38 states,and within the top five markets for all but three states.China is just one of

4、three countries whose purchases of US goods and services supported more than 1 million jobsCanada and Mexico were the other two.The US-China trade relationship has grown steadily for decades,but in 2022,it appeared to weaken slightly.Goods exports to China reached a record high,but much of that year

5、-over-year growth can likely be attributed to inflation.When compared to US exports to other top markets,goods exports to China grew at a significantly slower rate.Stunted economic growth in China,Russias war in Ukraine,and US-China tension are weighing on the bilateral trade relationship,as are lon

6、g-standing barriers,such as tariffs.On the services front,US exports to China increased in 2021 but had not recovered from the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic.US goods exports to China increased by 1.2 percent in 2022 and were led by oilseeds and grains.Both oilseeds and grains and pharmaceutical exp

7、orts saw double-digit growth year over year.While semiconductors and oil and gas remained among the top goods exports to China,both saw double-digit contractions.US services exports to China increased by 7 percent in 2021,with education and various types of royalties comprising the largest categorie

8、s.More than half of states increased their services exports to China by at least 5 percent.Travel,historically the largest services export to China by far,sunk even lower than it had the year prior,and education exports saw a moderate increase.$151.3 billion US goods exports to China,2022$149.5 bill

9、ion US goods exports to China,2021 1.06 million Jobs supported by US exports to China,2021$39.6 billion US services exports to China,2021 US-China Business Council 2023 2 US Exports to China US Goods Exports to China Overall goods exports to China increased 1.2 percent year over year,and the top cat

10、egories remained largely the same as previous years.While a positive growth figure suggests,at first glance,that the bilateral trade relationship is expanding,high inflation and other factors suggest it is wavering,at least in a few key sectors.Growth in US exports to other top foreign markets in 20

11、22 far outpaced growth in exports to China.US goods exports to China(billion)$119.8$121.4$114.0$113.8$128.0$118.0$104.7$123.0$149.5$151.3 2013201420152016201720182019202020212022Change in US goods exports to China,2021-2022-$1 billion -$1 billion+US-China Business Council 2023 3 US Exports to China

12、All others,$8.7B US goods exports to China by category,2022 US-China Business Council 2023 4 US Exports to China Market Exports(billion)Growth(y/y)1.Canada$337.9 15%2.Mexico$313.8 17%3.China$151.3 1%4.Japan$78.5 8%5.United Kingdon$71.5 27%6.Netherlands$70.6 37%7.South Korea$69.9 8%8.Germany$69.5 11%

13、9.Brazil$52.3 14%10.India$46.2 18%Top US goods export markets,2022 US-China Business Council 2023 5 US Exports to China Top goods exporters to China by state,2022 State Exports (billion)Growth (y/y)Growth (10 year)1.Texas$21.8 3%104%2.California$17.7 8%13%3.Oregon$8.2 21%181%4.Illinois$6.6 9%8%5.Nor

14、th Carolina$6.5 50%123%6.Indiana$5.2 13%116%7.Louisiana$4.5 8%120%8.Minnesota$4.4 8%33%9.Washington$4.1 45%65%10.Georgia$4.1 2%8.3%Top US congressional district goods exporters to China,2022 District Exports (billion)Growth (y/y)Growth (10 year)1.Oregon 1st$3.3 22%304%2.Oregon 6th$3.2 23%273%3.Texas

15、 38th$3.2 4%541%4.California 17th$2.0 6%19%5.Nebraska 3rd$1.9 12%67%6.North Carolina 4th$1.8 72%375%7.Iowa 4th$1.6 14%66%8.Texas 36th$1.5 14%21%9.Minnesota 7th$1.5 13%37%10.Indiana 7th$1.4 13%997%US-China Business Council 2023 6 US Exports to China Diving into the Details Oilseeds and grains cement

16、their place as the top export to China Oilseeds and grainscrops like soybeans,wheat,and cornremained the largest export to China by far.At$25.4 billion,these exports totaled more than twice the size of the next largest category.US farmers sent$3.6 billion more in oilseeds and grains to China than th

17、ey did the year before.According to the US Department of Agriculture,this growth is largely attributable to strong demand and higher prices of agricultural goods compared to the previous year,as the volumes of most agriculture exports actually went down.Trouble in other marketsa drought in South Ame

18、rica,a palm oil export ban in Indonesia,and the war in Ukraine,an important exporter of wheatput upward pressure on prices.Growth in oilseeds and grains exports was widely distributed across the United States.Thirty states saw their exports of the crops expand,and 11 states saw shipments grow by mor

19、e than$100 million,with Illinois posting the largest increase of all:$653 million.Ten US states shipped more than$1 billion in the crops to China in 2022.Semiconductor exports falter Exports of semiconductors and their componentry fell by$2.9 billion last year,wiping out the growth of the year befor

20、e.Chinas weak economy in 2022,a result of strict COVID-19 travel policies and widespread lockdowns,reduced the demand for these foundational technologies.US export controls on advanced semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment,which took effect in October of 2022,also inhibited export

21、s to China.The more frequent use of export controls over the last few years has led Chinese customers to deprioritize American products when there are viable domestic and third-country suppliers.Oregon,the largest exporter of the goods by far,comprised the bulk of the national decline with a$1.8 bil

22、lion decrease in 2022.However,even with new export controls in place,chips remain the second-largest goods export to China.$7.1B$8.1B$9.7B$12.0B$14.2B$11.2B201720182019202020212022$13.6B$3.8B$8.3B$17.1B$21.7B$25.4B201720182019202020212022US exports of oilseeds and grains to ChinaUS exports of semico

23、nductors and their componentry US-China Business Council 2023 7 US Exports to China Oil and gas While US exports of oil and gas to China remained the third-largest export category at$11 billion,the figure actually represents a$1.5 billion contraction from 2021.The decrease is the result of a reshuff

24、ling in international petroleum markets after Russias invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.Russias subsequent isolation from most markets drastically lowered the price of Russian oil and gas,and some Chinese importers switched from importing the product from the United States and other produce

25、rs to importing it from Russia.Texas and Louisiana remained by far the largest exporters of oil and gas to China,shipping$7.7 billion and$2.9 billion respectively,despite both seeing year-over-year contractions of around 5 percent.Pharmaceutical and medicine exports to China saw continued growth US

26、exports of pharmaceuticals and medicines to China continued their growth streak,jumping$3 billion in 2022,or 38 percent.Much of this growth was concentrated in North Carolina,which boosted its exports by$2.1 billion compared to the year prior.A handful of states also saw massive growth relative to 2

27、021,with Rhode Island,Utah,Nevada,Arkansas,Michigan,Louisiana,and North Carolina all more than doubling their pharmaceutical exports to China.While this report does not include data for territories such as Puerto Rico or the US Virgin Islands,it is noteworthy that Puerto Rico exported$1.1 billion in

28、 pharmaceuticals to China in 2022,behind only North Carolina and Indiana.Over the past few years,China has sped up regulatory processes for new drug approvals,which has allowed US companies to more rapidly bring new drugs to the countrys market.While some US companies are able to export a large amou

29、nt of high-value,high-demand drugs that have no domestic equivalents in China,Chinas national pharmaceutical procurement program may pose a long-term barrier to continued growth for US companies in this sector.$3.4B$4.0B$5.5B$5.9B$7.9B$10.9B201720182019202020212022US exports of pharmaceuticals and m

30、edicines to China US-China Business Council 2023 8 US Exports to China US Services Exports to China Comprehensive data on services exports lag a year behind that of goods,making 2021 the latest year of data available.The United States exported$39.6 billion in services to China in 2021,a 7 percent in

31、crease over the year prior but still far below the trajectory of US services exports before the COVID-19 pandemic.Travel exports to China,which used to provide a significant contribution to the US economy,continued to sink,allowing education and various intellectual property and financial services t

32、o top the list.That said,education exports to China were still much lower than they were prior to the pandemic.Categories such as business management and consulting;miscellaneous business,professional,and technological services;and book/music royalties more than doubled over the course of 2021,and C

33、hina remained the United States sixth-largest services export market.Change in US services exports to China,2020-2021 US services exports to China(billion)$29.8$35.1$41.3$45.5$51.8$53.6$55.5$55.6$37.0$39.62012201320142015201620172018201920202021-$100 million -$100 million+US-China Business Council 2

34、023 9 US Exports to China All others,$2.5B US services exports to China by category,2021 US-China Business Council 2023 10 US Exports to China US top services export markets,2020 Market Exports(billion)Growth(y/y)1.Ireland$74.8 11%2.United Kingdon$67.4 10%3.UK Islands,Caribbean$57.3 9%4.Canada$55.7

35、7%5.Switzerland$47.1 13%6.China$39.6 7%7.Japan$36 3 8.Germany$31.6 7%9.Mexico$30.1 30%10.Singapore$30 17 Top US services export markets,2021 US-China Business Council 2023 11 US Exports to China Top services exporters to China by state,2021 State Exports (billion)Growth (y/y)Growth (10 year)1.Califo

36、rnia$7.9 7%52%2.New York$4.5 12%52%3.Texas$2.9 3%23%4.Illinois$2.2 13%41%5.Massachusetts$2 9%73%6.Florida$1.5 6%2%7.Washington$1.4 8%30%8.Pennsylvania$1.2 5%34%9.Georgia$1.2 8%25%10.North Carolina$1.1 6%69%Top services exporters to China by district,2021 District Exports Growth(y/y)Growth(10 year)1.

37、New York 12th$1.4 billion 14%60%2.New York 10th$884 million 1%52%3.Massachusetts 7th$768 million 12%103%4.Illinois 5th$645.2 million 28%80%5.California 42nd$636 million 9%7%6.California 11th$561.2 million 10%66%7.California 36th$536 million 17%93%8.California 16th$491 million 4%145%9.Washington 7th$

38、432.1 million 7%63%10.California 17th$423.1 million 1%161%US-China Business Council 2023 12 US Exports to China Travel While most nations relaxed their entry and exit policies after mRNA vaccines were deployed to fight the COVID-19 pandemic,China was an outlier.China continued to restrict non-citize

39、ns and citizens entry for the entirety of 2021 and 2022.During this time,private citizens and business executives alike found it nearly impossible to smoothly travel back and forth between the United States and China due to extended quarantine requirements,limited visa availability,and slowed passpo

40、rt issuance in China.As a result,the travel exports figurewhich represents money spent by Chinese citizens in the United Statessank even further in 2021 and will almost certainly not show signs of recovery until 2023.Since 2019,the last full year before the COVID-19 pandemic began,personal,business,

41、and health travel decreased a dizzying 98,96,and 88 percent respectively.Nevadas and Hawaiis services exports to the world have been cut in half since 2019,with their services exports to China specifically dropping by more than 70 percent over the same period.Category 2019 2020 2021 Change(2019-2021

42、)1.Personal Travel&Tourism$9.4 billion$923 million$217 million 98%2.Business Travel$3.6 billion$350 million$136 million 96%3.Medical-related Travel$188 million$40 million$22 million 88%Education Education exports to China,also impacted by travel and other factors,saw a moderate increase over the yea

43、r prior.Education exports include money that Chinese students studying in the United States pay for tuition,housing,books,and other related fees,which are all important contributions to local economies.These exports increased by 6 percent to around$11.1 billion in 2021,the largest figure for any ser

44、vices category that year,though this is far below pre-pandemic levels.California,New York,and Massachusetts benefited the most from hosting Chinese students,with each seeing a more than$1 billion contribution from them in 2021.Chinese students remain the largest demographic of international students

45、 studying at US universities,but they are coming to study in lower numbers than before.Since the 20182019 school year,the number of Chinese students coming to study in the United States has been on the decline,and the amount of money Chinese students are spending in the United States has dropped acc

46、ordingly,plummeting by a quarter since 2019.Only Arizona has increased its education exports to China during this periodand only by 1 percent.Delawares education exports to China have dropped by a staggering 55 percent since 2019,and Kentucky and West Virginia both experienced 45 percent declines.Wh

47、ile uncertainties in the COVID-19 and travel situations were likely the chief reasons for lower economic contributions from Chinese students in 2020 and 2021,worsening geopolitical tensions between the United States and China,US visa policies,personal safety considerations,and increased competition

48、from UK,Canadian,Australian,Singaporean,and domestic Chinese universities may also have played a role.These dynamics predate the pandemic and are likely to endure even if travel bounces back.Travel exports to China,20192021 US-China Business Council 2023 13 US Exports to China -55%-45%-45%-42%-41%-4

49、0%-36%-34%-34%-32%-31%-31%-29%-29%-29%-28%-28%-28%-28%-27%-27%-27%-26%-26%-26%-25%-25%-25%-25%-24%-24%-24%-24%-23%-22%-22%-21%-19%-19%-18%-18%-16%-15%-15%-12%-10%-9%-6%-3%1%DelawareWest VirginiaKentuckyOregonNebraskaIowaNevadaOklahomaColoradoMississippiNew MexicoWyomingWashingtonSouth CarolinaAlabam

50、aArkansasIdahoFloridaVermontMontanaNorth DakotaCaliforniaAlaskaMinnesotaVirginiaConnecticutLouisianaIndianaSouth DakotaKansasOhioPennsylvaniaNew JerseyMichiganTexasWisconsinRhode IslandNorth CarolinaTennesseeNew YorkIllinoisMassachusettsNew HampshireHawaiiGeorgiaMarylandMissouriUtahMaineArizonaArizo