德勤+汽车移动的未来2035-56页-WN6.pdf

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1、The future of automotive mobility to 2035 What might mobility providers role be in tomorrows value chain?02The future of automotive mobility to 2035|What might mobility providers role be in tomorrows value chain?031.Introduction 042.The long and winding road ahead 083.The evolution of automotive mob

2、ility 104.Expected shifts in the United States and Europe 145.Future profit-pool simulation based on proxy mobility provider 366.New operating model capability requirements 437.Key takeaways 488.Conclusion 51Contacts 52Contributors and Acknowledgments 53Endnotes 5404For automotive mobility providers

3、,the business landscape could already feel like it is rapidly shifting.Buckle upthings may be about to get more uncertain.In fact,our research suggests that revolutionary thinking will be needed to help ensure future success.1.IntroductionThe future of automotive mobility to 2035|What might mobility

4、 providers role be in tomorrows value chain?05As Figure 1 demonstrates,despite seismic shifts on the near horizon,the size of the automotive mobility market in the US and“EUROPE5”region is projected to nearly double by 2035.Change is coming,whether mobility pro-viders are ready or not and there is a

5、n enormous opportunity for well-positioned players.In fact,what they do next could determine their success or failure for many years to come.In a world with rapidly changing consumer preferences,widening inequality,rising polarization,pressing climate change,declin-ing trust,and an evolving geopolit

6、ical order,the automotive industrys focus has largely centered on technology,which has driven the conversation about the evolving mobility ecosystem.1 But as the future comes into focus,with some innovations becoming reality2 and others seemingly even further away,3 mobility providers should conside

7、r focusing on value.4 Indeed,the auto mobility value chain is increasingly important for providersfrom captive and non-captive leasing companiesiii to rental companies and fleet management companiesthe industry is constantly adjusting to disruptionwhich could become even more pronounced in the futur

8、e.Fig.1 Automotive mobility market size between 2022 and 2035Source:Deloitte Global Automotive Mobility Market Simulation Tool.i The EUROPE5 region is comprised of France,Germany,Italy,Spain,and the United Kingdom.ii Reflects exchange rate as of January 27,2023(USD1=EUR0.92).iii For simplicitys sake

9、,we refer to these both as“captives”in this paper.0100200300In billion 2022203573.2140.80100200300In billion$20222035140.8281.0+5%Compound annual growth rate(CAGR)+5%EUROPE5US“The overall size of the automotive mobility market in the EUROPE5i countries and the United States is projected to increase

10、to 141 billion($153 billion)ii and$281 billion(258 billion),respectively,by 2035,with a compound annual growth rate(CAGR)of 5%from 2022.”Deloitte Global Automotive Mobility Market Simulation Tool06Underlying perspectives on the player landscapeIncumbentsCaptives This group represents the financial a

11、rms of original equipment manufacturers(OEMs),the core business of which is historically centered on asset and dealer financing as well as usage-and vehicle-related services.For this report,we also use this term in some instances to broadly refer to other types of financial institution,such as banks

12、 and other lenders.Fleet management companies These companies focus on managing large vehicle groups for customers,including financing/leasing,usage-and vehicle-related services,and re-marketing of vehicles at the end-of-life cycles.For this report,we also define this term to broadly refer to other

13、types of fleet managers like leasing companies.Rental companies This group maintains a strong footprint in classic rental products but has expanded into adjacent business sectors,including financing/leasing,fleet management,and mobility-on-demand.ChallengersThe automotive mobility landscape is being

14、 increasingly influenced by new players like mobility startups,fintechs,and challengers from other industries,such as the hi-tech sector.5 Each player may identify and focus on the largest profit pools that make the most sense for its business,which might not be the most obvious solutions.For exampl

15、e,when mapping out the future of automotive mobility,pundits and analysts tend to over-look certain players in the industry.6 Traditionally,many automotive mobility pro-viders have preferred to take a back seat.7 This may be an important and growing risk for themand indeed many stakehold-ersgoing fo

16、rward.With change acceler-ating,automotive mobility providers could face increasing pressure to accelerate their growth strategies,and to make strategic decisions on where to play in the automo-tive value chain.To help cut through the fog of rapid change,this report explores the mobility value chain

17、 and the shifts in profit pools antici-pated over the coming decade.We focus our efforts on the United States and the EUROPE5 region as two of the largest auto-motive markets in the world.In the face of generational transformation,automotive leaders in both markets may consider identi-fying and embr

18、acing fundamental change to meet new and shifting business challenges,such as the electrification of global mobility and an ongoing move to online sales.Such strategic imperatives could push industry players to develop both a sustainability play and new skill sets,as well as technologies focused on

19、a digital-first,customer-centric approach to business operations that,in turn,can help create new data-driven reve-nue streams.To be blunt,the price for inaction by indus-try players could be fatal,especially in an industry on the move in so many directions.Forecasts and business models are already

20、seeing the impact of the shifts happen-ing across the mobility landscape,8 from increased connectivity and new online sales channels to regulatory changes and the rise of electric vehicles(EVs).But leaders looking to keep pace with competitors could use greater clarity for the miles to come.“50%60%o

21、f future profitsiv may be at stake if mobility providers continue their business as usual.”Deloitte Global Automotive Mobility Market Simulation Tooliv This calculation is based on EUROPE5 and US proxy mobility providers and the application of the following assumptions to the 2035 financial model:(1

22、)a constant asset control curve of overall fleet,(2)a similar take rate for in-life services,(3)the same margin expectations for all products,and(4)a slight decrease in market share due to an increasingly competitive environment.The future of automotive mobility to 2035|What might mobility providers

23、 role be in tomorrows value chain?07About the study The study is based on three key compo-nents that provided quantitative as well as qualitative information:Customer survey In the fall of 2022,we surveyed more than 9,500 consumers across nine countries,including France,Germany,Italy,Spain,the Unite

24、d Kingdom,and the United States.Respondents were invited to complete an online question-naire translated into local languages where appropriate.Executive sessions and interviews We conducted nearly two dozen interviews and several full-day sessions with C-suite executives representing the industry s

25、takeholders in scope(captives,rental companies,and fleet managers).We organized interviews to follow the survey questionnaire to help ensure structure while providing a forum for more in-depth conversations.The workshops and inter-views took place in-person and virtually between August and November

26、2022.Profit pool simulation tool To add quantifiable context to current and future industry actions,we developed a new,standalone profit pool simulation tool.It incorporates proprietary and public databases,decades of industry project experience,predictions and assumptions based on executive-level t

27、hinking to help ensure precision in modeling the auto-motive mobility sector in the year 2035.The simulation tool also incorporates the findings from the executive interviews and customer survey to inform the financial modeling.08The COVID-19 pandemic shook up the globally integrated automotive sect

28、or,with aftershocks reverberating after governments ended lockdowns.2.The long and winding road aheadGeopolitical unrest,supply chain disrup-tions,soaring energy costs,trade conflicts,semiconductor shortages,and elevated new and used-car prices continue to rock the industry.Traditional automakers ma

29、y struggle to keep up with rapidly evolving consumer expectations and the substantial investment required to fuel digital technol-ogy innovation.Governments around the world are implementing regulatory changes targeting carbon-free mobility in the next 20 years with some imposing an outright ban on

30、the sale of internal combustion engine(ICE)vehicles by the middle of the next decade.At the same time,many new entrants are emerging to capitalize on the global shift to EVs.While the industry has always seen change,the scale and pace of todays disruptions are unprecedented.9This means that even the

31、 most stable of industry stakeholdersthink of finance providers,with the same sales-based model for decadeshave had to rethink business processes and models,seeking value in places long unexamined or even taken for granted.Companies across indus-tries and sectors have shifted from one-time product s

32、ales to offering continuous,value-add services,10 and mobility providers may be moving in that direction as well.Even though captives already contribute a significant sum to overall profitability,11 some OEMs surveyed increasingly expect their subsidiaries to play an even larger role going forward.T

33、his includes OEM expec-tations that subsidiaries may help offset some of the substantial costs of decarbon-ization.Such cost-sharing efforts can more effectively exploit profit pools along the asset life cycle and could help determine long-term successor simply survival.OEMs surveyed also expect tec

34、hnology to become even more of a differentiator,with software-enabled solutions aimed at enhancing the mobility experience.Indeed,digital innovation could likely be at the center of many emerging profit pools,as companies transition from the traditional paradigm of selling discrete assets to con-sum

35、ers to selling ongoing management of assets across multiple life cycles.Con-nected servicesfrom telematics and data analytics to infotainment and vehicle fea-ture subscriptionsare expected to unlock a variety of new revenue streams.To effectively tap into these resources,leaders at automotive lender

36、s and other mobility providers could face some tough decisions.First,they need to decide how to best invest in skills and innovation to retool for the future.They also need to envision the changes necessary to secure their place as pivotal stakeholders in tomorrows value chain.And for this to succee

37、d,it may be helpful for them to develop a sharp vision of the industrys overall future.At the same time,the development of any new or expanded business model needs to be built on a solid foundation characterized by an efficient operating model with core elements including lean processes,a high degre

38、e of automation,and a customer-centric approach.That is where our new research comes in.We initially set out to address some of the top-of-mind concerns for industry leaders today and further down the road.But along the way,we decided to move beyond presenting yet another qualitative point of view.I

39、nstead,we chose to seek out deep market insights from nearly two dozen C-suite executives.Hearing directly from the decision makers who are currently making the strategic choices that shape the future of automotive mobility provided an unprecedented view of the industry.But our research did not end

40、there.We took these lessons and developed a consumer survey and a financial model.We combined these insights to identify and analyze the key points that may help impact future decision making.The resulting executive insights paint a compelling picture of what tomorrows mobility ecosystem could look

41、likeand how industry players might thrive in that ecosystem.In the pages that follow,we The future of automotive mobility to 2035|What might mobility providers role be in tomorrows value chain?09The future of captives In 2018,we sought to answer an important question:Are captive finance companies on

42、 track for the future?The paper laid out forecasts for the years leading up to 2030,12 based on disruptive forcesincluding customer preferences shifting from vehicle ownership to usagebegin-ning to challenge the future viability of captives core business.Finance companies had long played a signif-ic

43、ant role in OEMs success based on the established dealer-network model,offering profit contribution,risk management,and sales support and customer managementand that seemed about to change.We foresaw a shifting center of grav-ity,with business volumes relocating from traditional Western markets to C

44、hina and the rest of the world,pre-senting captives with new customer segments and a new competitive environment.We looked for a shift from indirect to direct sales,making dealer networks less significant and necessitating the development of new digital sales channels based on direct customer intera

45、ctions.We foresaw an evolution of captives product and service portfolios,with more flexible leasing offerings and fewer credit and wholesale business sales.And we pre-dicted a sharp rise in the importance of customer-centricity,with innovative offerings,new sales channels,and increasing customer in

46、teractions.This was to happen by 2030but many shifts have accelerated as the underlying circumstances have changed.In fact,many predictions for“the future”are already here today(e.g.,vehicle subscriptions,long-term rentals),and the transformation of automotive mobility happened faster than anyone co

47、uld anticipate.The last few years have been so eventfulfrom pandemic-driven supply-chain crises to the rise in micro-mobility13 and EV adoptionthat we elected to revisit and expand our initial forecasts from captives to a wider view of auto-motive mobility providers today.Future of CaptivesWhat will

48、 be the core businesses for Automotive Captives in 2030?Sebastian PfeiflePartnerGlobal Automotive Mobility Lead Deloitte ConsultingJeff PaulManaging DirectorUS Auto Captive Finance LeaderDeloitte Services LPexplore our research findings and share data-driven insights and C-suite thinking about the s

49、hifting paradigm of automotive mobility.The year 2035 will be here sooner than we think.10The evolution of automotive mobility is expected to continue to accelerate and be influenced by many factors.To capture these important effects,we developed an extensive automotive mobility value chain model th

50、at is structured along the asset and customer life cycle.3.The evolution of automotive mobilityThe value chain offers an opportunity to help the automotive industry reflect on how profit pools are mapped out today and could develop in the future.This core concept serves as the pillar for our strate-