1978年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc

《1978年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《1978年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc（26页珍藏版）》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettism巴菲特致股东的信 1978 年Buffetts Letters To Berkshire Shareholders 1978First, a few words about accounting. The merger首先，是会计相关的议题，在年底与）with Diversified Retailing Company, Inc. at多元零售公司的合并后，对于公司的yearend addstwo newcomplications inthe财务报表有两项影响，首先在合并案presentation of our fin

2、ancial results. After the完成后，我们对蓝筹邮票的持股比例merger, our ownershipofBlue Chip Stamps料将提高至 58%左右，意味着该公司的increased to approximately 58% and, therefore,资资产负债以及盈余数字必须全部纳到the accountsof thatcompany must be fully研伯克希尔的报表之内，在此之前，我consolidated in the Balance Sheet and Statement投们仅透过权益法按投资比例认列蓝筹of Earnings prese

3、ntation of Berkshire. In邮票的净值与收益。多previous reports, our share of the net earnings载更only of Blue Chip had been included as a single下item on Berkshires Statement of Earnings, and，there had been a similar one-line inclusion onour Balance Sheet of our share of their net”assets.）This full consolidation o

4、f sales, expenses,如此全面性地将营收、费用、应收帐receivables, inventories, debt, etc. produces an款、存货及负债等科目合并，所产生aggregation of figures from many diverse的数字将来自于各种产业特性截然不businesses -textiles,insurance, candy,同的行业，包含纺织、保险、糖果、EDITORnewspapers, trading stamps - with dramatically报纸及邮票等，某些行业各位的持有different economic chara

5、cteristics.ValueFirst1In some of的权益是 100%，某些例如由蓝筹邮票theseyour ownershipis 100% but, in those所持有的却只有 58%(至于其它股东（businesses which are owned by Blue Chip but fully所代表的权益，则列在资产负债表右股consolidated, your ownership as a Berkshire半边负债科目的少数股东权益项下)，牛对于财务报表这样的归类，我们认为shareholder is only 58%. (Ownership by others o

6、f资非但无法解释实际现况反而模糊了真the balance of these businesses is accounted for投正的焦点，事实上，我们内部从来就by the large minority interest item on theliability side值of the Balance Sheet.) Such a不使用这样的报表进行分析管理。grouping价of BalancePDFSheet and Earnings items -“some wholly owned, some partly owned - tends to号obscure economic re

7、ality more than illuminate众it. In fact, it represents a form of presentation信公that we never prepare for internal use during the微year and which is ofno value to us inany索management activities.搜For that reason, throughout the report we provide基于这样的理由，在接下来的报告中，muchseparatefinancialinformationand我们将针对个别

8、的行业提供各自的财（commentary onthe various segments ofthe务数字及分析检讨，以协助各位评估business to help you evaluate Berkshires伯克希尔实际的表现及前景，这些信performance and prospects. Much of this息大都是证管会信息揭露的相关要segmented information is mandated by SEC求，详见 29 页到 34 页的管理阶层讨PDFM1巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettismdisclosure rules and

9、covered in “Managements论，至于在这里我们则试着以经营者Discussion” on pages 29 to 34. And in this letter的角度为各位分析各个营利单位的表we try to present to you a view of our various现。operating entities from the same perspective）that we view them managerially.A second complication arising from the merger is合并案所引发的第二项影响则是今年that the

10、 1977 figures shown in this report are报表中秀出 1977 年的数字与去年提differentfromthe1977figures shown inthe料供给各位同一年度的数字有所不同，report wemailed to youlast year. Accounting资会计原则要求当像多元零售与伯克希convention requires that when two entities such研尔这样二个独立个体合并时，所有报as Diversified and Berkshire are merged, all投告的财务数字都必须假设这两家公司fi

11、nancial data subsequently must be presented as原本就在一起，所以后续呈现所有数多if the companies had been merged at the time they字，是假设这两家公司早在 1977 年更were formed ratherthan just recently. Sothe(甚至更早以前)就已经合并，虽然真enclosedfinancialstatements,in effect,载正合并的日期是 1978 年的 12 月 30pretend that in 1977(andearlier years)the下日，这样

12、的改变使得比较性的评论很，Diversified-Berkshire merger already had taken”容易产生混淆，因为以往的报告中，place, even thoughthe actual merger date was我们告诉各位的都是伯克希尔的历史）December 30, 1978. This shifting base makes记录，而非依照合并多元零售后重新comparative commentary confusing and, from time修正数字。to time in our narrative report, we will talk offigu

13、resandperformance forBerkshireEDITORshareholders as historically reported to yourather than as restated afterValueFirst1the Diversifiedmerger.（With that preamble it can be stated that, with然而即便在这样的前提下，我们还是股or without restatedfigures, 1978was a good可以如此说，不论财报数字是否重编，牛1978 年都是丰收的一年，不含资本利year. Operating

14、 earnings, exclusive of capitalgains, at资得的营业利益约为期初股东投资成本19.4% of beginning shareholders投的 19.4%，虽然低于 1972 年的历史记investment were within a fraction of our 1972record. While值we believeit isimproperto录，我们认为评估单一年度的表现，include capital价gainsPDFor losses in evaluating the不适宜将资本利得或损失纳入计算，“performance ofasingl

15、e year, they arean但不可否认他们却是衡量长期绩效的号重要指针，拜这类利得所赐，伯克希important component of the longer term record.众尔每股权益长期的成长率远大于每年Because of such gains, Berkshires long-term信公growth in equity per share has been greater than年度营业利益所带来的复利报酬。微would be indicated by compounding the returns索from operating earnings that we

16、 have reportedannually.搜（For example, overthelast three years -举例来说，过去三年算是保险业的黄generally a bonanza period for the insurance金岁月，这行业也是伯克希尔获利主industry, our largest profit producer -要来源，拜其所赐我们的每股净值呈Berkshires per share net worth virtually has倍数成长，每年的营业利益与资本利doubled, thereby compounding at about 25%得约当以

17、25%的速度增加，但我们不PDFM2巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettismannually through a combination of good operating认为 25%的股东权益年成长或 19.4%earnings and fairly substantial capital gains.营业利益的年成长可以维持多久，保Neither this 25% equity gain from all sources nor险业的景气循环已于 1979 年开始反the 19.4% equity gain from operating earnings

18、 in转向下，所以今年的营业利益相较于）1978 is sustainable. The insurance cycle has股东权益的比率很有可能会下滑，当turned downward in 1979, and it is almost certain然营业利益的金额还是会继续增加。料that operating earningsmeasured byreturn on资equity will fall this year. However, operating研earningsmeasuredin dollarsarelikely to投increaseonthemuchlargers

19、hareholdersequity now employed in the business.相较于对短期营运的保守看法，我们多In contrast to this cautious view about near termreturn from operations, we are optimistic about对于目前保险子公司所持有的股票投更prospects for long term return from major equity资却感到相当乐观，我们从来不会想investments held by our insurance companies. We载要去预测股票市场的走势

20、，事实上，make no attempt to predict how security markets下我不认为包含我自己本身在内，有人，will behave; successfully forecasting short term”能够 “成功”地预测股市短期间的波stock price movementsis somethingwe think动，然而就长期而言，我们觉得我们）neither we nor anyone else can do. In the longer这些主要持股的价值终将远超过我们run, however, we feel that many of our maj

21、or当初投资的成本，而这些投资收益将equity holdings are going to be worth会使得保险事业的盈余表现更上一层considerably more money than we paid, and that楼。EDITORinvestment gains will add significantly to theoperating returns of the insuranceValueFirst1group.Sources of Earnings（盈余报告To giveyoua better pictureofjust where为了让各位对伯克希尔的盈余来源有

22、股Berkshiresearnings are produced, we show所了解，让我稍微解释一下下面这张below atable牛requiresa little表，伯克希尔约持有蓝筹邮票 58%的which资股权，而后者除了持有一些企业 100%explanation. Berkshire owns close to 58% of Blue投的股权外，还另外拥有 Wesco 金融公Chip which, in addition to 100% ownership ofseveral businesses,值owns 80% of Wesco Financial司 80%的股权，也因

23、此伯克希尔等于Corporation.价Thus,PDFBerkshiresequity in间接持有 Wesco 约 46%的股权，总的“Wescos earnings is about 46%. In aggregate,来说，我们旗下事业约有 7,000 名全号职的员工，年营收达到 5 亿美元。businesses that we control have about 7,000众full-time employees and generate revenues of信公over $500 million.微The table shows the overall earnings of

24、each下表显示各个主要营运单位的税前盈索major operating category on a pre-tax basis余(有几家公司适用的税率较低主要(several of the businesses have low tax rates的原因是免税的利息及股息收入)，以搜because of significant amounts of tax-exempt下是伯克希尔按持股比例可分得的税（interest and dividend income), as well as the前及税后盈余，各事业的资本利得或share of those earnings belonging to Berkshire损失则不包含在营业利益之内，而是both on a pre-tax and after-tax basis.加总列在已实现证券利得项下，由于Significant capital gains or losses attributable复杂的会计及税务规定，大家不必将PDFM3巴菲特研究中心 Research Centre for Buffettismto any of the businesses ar