1975年巴菲特致股东的信正式版.doc

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1、1975 年巴菲特致股东的信翻译：Rick ）1975 年纺织业务进行了扩张，收购了两个公司。-资料研To the Stockholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:多投Last year, when discussing the prospects for 1975, we stated “the outlook for 1975 is更not encouraging.” This forecast proved to be distressingly accurate. Our operatingearnings for 1975 were $6,713,59

2、2, or $6.85 per share, producing a return onbeginning shareholders equity of 7.6%. This is the lowest return on equity载，experienced since 1967. Furthermore, as explained later in this letter,下a large segment”of these earnings resulted from Federal income tax refunds which will not beavailable to ass

3、ist performance in 1976.）致伯克希尔股东：PDF在去年的年报里，我们谈到 1975 年的前景的时候，我们提到：“前景不妙”。目前看来，我们预测准确，但是令人沮丧。1975EDITOR年，我们的运营利润是 671 万美元，每股约合 6.85 美元，按年初的股东权益，ROE 为 7.6%。这是自 1967 年以来的最差回报率。然而，我们后面也会提到，大部分的盈利来源于联邦所得税ValueFirst1股的退税。1976年无法再享受到退税的优惠。（牛On balance, however, current trends indicate a somewhat brighter

4、1976. Operations投and prospects will be discussed资in greater detail below, under specific industry titles.值Our expectation is that significantly better results in textiles, earnings added fromPDFMrecent acquisitions, an increase in equity in earnings of Blue Chip Stamps resulting价“from an enlarged ow

5、nership interest, and at least a moderate improvement ininsurance underwriting results will more than offset other possible negatives to众produce greater号earnings in 1976.公微总体而言，目前的趋势显示 1976 年的情况有所好转。我们下面将分部门详细讨索信论我们的业务。我们预测纺织业务部门的盈利会大幅增加，受惠于我们最近所做搜的收购；同时我们持有的蓝带印花公司的股权比例有所上升，这将增加我们按权益比例享有的利润；我们承保业务部门

6、的业绩也会有一定程度的上升，所有这些（将会抵消一些负面的因素，使得我们 1976 年的业绩有所改善。The major variableand by far the most difficult to predict with any feeling of confidenceis the insurance underwriting result. Present very tentative indications are that underwriting improvement is in prospect. If such improvement is moderate,our ov

7、erall gain in earnings in 1976 likewise will prove moderate. More significant underwriting improvement could give us a major gain in earnings.目前变化最大，也是最不好预测的就是承保利润率。目前有微弱的迹象显示承保）的业绩在改善。如果承保业务的业绩有一定程度的改善，那么 1976 年我们总体料业绩也会有所改善。承保业绩的大幅改善将显著提升我们的业绩。资Textile Operations研During the first half of 1975 sale

8、s of textile products were extremely depressed,投resulting in major production curtailments. Operations ran at a significant loss, withemployment down as much as 53% from a year earlier.更多载纺织业务下在 1975 年的上半年，纺织产品的销售很差，导致了我们大幅削减产量。我们的，雇员数下降了 53%，运营处于严重亏损的水平。”）In contrast with previous cyclical slumps,

9、however, most textile producers quicklyreduced production to match incoming orders, thus preventing massive industry-wideaccumulation of inventories. Such cutbacks caused quite prompt reflection at the millEDITORoperating level when demand revived at retail. As a result, beginning about midyearbusin

10、ess rebounded at a fairly rapid rate. This “V” shaped textile depression, whileValueFirst1one of the sharpest on record, also became one of the shortest ones in our experience.（The fourth quarter produced an excellent profit for our textile division, bringing股results for the year into the black.资牛和以

11、往的纺织行业周期相比，本轮周期中很多纺织企业迅速削减产量，按订单生投产，这样就避免了全行业大量存货的累积。产量削减之后，工厂的产量对零售需值求的再次恢复迅速作出反应。在年中的时候，纺织产品的价格快速反弹。此次纺织行业的 V“型反转，在历史上也是最深的一次（指下降周期价格的跌幅价PDF,rick），同时也是持续时间最短的一次。第四季度，我们的纺织业务取得了很好的利润，号以至于我们全年并未发生亏损，反而有所盈利。公众On April 28, 1975 we acquired Waumbec Mills Incorporated and Waumbec Dyeing信and Finishing Co

12、., Inc. located in Manchester, New Hampshire. These companies索微搜have long sold woven goods into the drapery and apparel trade. Such draperymaterials complement and extend the line already marketed through the Home Fabrics（Division of Berkshire Hathaway. In the period prior to our acquisition, the co

13、mpanyhad run at a very substantial loss, with only about 55% of looms in operation and thePDFMfinishing plant operating at about 50% of capacity. Losses continued on a reduced basis for a few months after acquisition. Outstanding efforts by our manufacturing,administrative and sales people now have

14、produced major improvements, which,coupled with the general revival in textiles, have moved Waumbec into a significantprofit position.EDITOR在 1975 年的 4 月 28 日，我们收购了两个位于新罕布什尔州曼切斯特的纺织企业。料）这两家公司有很长的经营纺织产品的历史（卖给服装企业和窗帘企业）。收购这资两个企业拓展了伯克希尔家纺部门的产品线。在我们收购之前，这两家企业亏损研严重，织布机的利用率只有 55%，产品最后加工环节的产能利用率只有 50%。投我们收

15、购之后，亏损开始减少，但是亏损仍然持续了几个月。在我们的生产部门、多行政部门和销售部门员工的持续努力下，两家收购企业的业绩已经取得了重大进展，加上最近纺织行业的复苏，这两个企业已经开始有了不小的盈利。载更下We expect a good level of profits from textiles in 1976. Continued progress is beingmade in the movement of Waumbec goods into areas of traditional marketing strength，”of Berkshire Hathaway, produc

16、tivity should improve in both the weaving and）finishing areas at Manchester, and textile demand continues to firm at decent prices.ValueFirst11976 年，纺织业务将取得一个较好的利润率水平。收购工厂的产品将通过伯克PDF希尔传统的强势销售渠道进行销售，我们在织布和最后整理阶段的生产效率将得到提升。对纺织产品的需求将使得我们产品的价格维持在目前还算不错的价格水平上。股We have great confidence in the ability（of K

17、en Chace and his team to maximize our牛strengths in textiles. Therefore, we continue to look for ways to increase further ourscale of operations while avoiding major capital investment in new fixed assets which资we consider unwise, considering the relatively low returns historically earned on large投sc

18、ale investment in new textile equipment.值PDFM价“我们对 Ken 及其管理团队最大化我们的纺织业务的利润非常有信心。我们将继续加大我们在纺织业务的规模，但是避免在这个行业进行新的固定资产投资（巴众,rick）。我们认为在纺织行业菲特可能指以便宜的价格收购其他的工厂及其设备号公进行新的固定资产投资是不明智的，因为历史数据表明，新的大规模的纺织行业信设备的投资所带来的回报是较低的。搜索微Insurance Underwriting（The property and casualty insurance industry had its worst yea

19、r in history during 1975.We did our shareunfortunately, even somewhat more. Really disastrous resultswere concentrated in auto and long-tail (contracts where settlement of loss usually occurs long after the loss event) lines. Economic inflation, with the increase in cost of repairing humans and prop

20、erty far outstripping the general rate of inflation, producedultimate loss costs which soared beyond premium levels established in a different cost environment.承保业务）料“Social” inflation caused the liability concept to be expanded continuously, far资beyond limits contemplated when rates were establishe

21、din effect, adding coverage研beyond what was paid for. Such social inflation increased significantly both the投propensity to sue and the possibility of collecting mammoth jury awards for eventsnot previously considered statistically significant in the establishment of rates.多更载社会通胀导致的承保业务的负债范围继续扩大，远超保

22、费费率制定时所设定的赔下付范围。社会通胀包括：起诉保险公司的概率大幅上升，同时陪审团判决保险公司赔偿的案例也大幅上升。而此前，在设定保费费率时，这样的赔付案例被认为在统计上并不显著。”），ValueFirst1Furthermore, losses to policyholders which otherwise would result frommushrooming insolvencies of companies inadequately reacting to these problems arePDFdivided through Guaranty Funds among rema

23、ining solvent insurers. These trends willcontinue, and should moderate any optimism which otherwiseEDITORmight be justified bythe sharply increased rates now taking effect.（股更为严重的是，本来应该赔付给投保人的部分，因为一些保险公司的破产，必须牛由保险保证基金来赔偿，而这些保险保证基金由那些未破产的保险公司来分摊。资这些趋势将持续，并抑制因保费费率大幅上升带来的乐观情绪。投值PDFMBerkshire Hathaways

24、insurance subsidiaries have a disproportionate concentration ofbusiness in precisely the lines which produced the worst underwriting results in 1975.Such lines produce“价unusually high investment income and, therefore, have been号particularly attractive to us under previous underwriting conditions. Ho

25、wever, our众“mix” has been very disadvantageous during the past two years and it well may be公that we will remain positioned in the more difficult part of the insurance spectrum信微during the inflationary years ahead.索伯克希尔保险业务子公司经营的保险业务分别不均，比较集中于某些产品线。而搜（在 1975 年，这些产品线的承保业绩最差。在以前的承保条件下，这些产品线对我们而言非常有吸引力，

26、因为它给我们带来了很高的投资收益（估计这里的产品线指的是车险、意外险和火灾保险，rick）。但是，我们的产品线，如果在所有保险公司的产品线中比较的话，在过去的两年里处于劣势，而且我们预期在未来也会处于劣势，因为未来几年的通胀会较高。The only segment to show improved results for us during 1975 was the “home state”EDITORoperation, which has made continuous progress under the leadership of JohnRingwalt. Although still operating at a significant underwriting loss, the combined）ratio improved from 1974. Adjusted for excess costs attributable to operations still in料the start-up phase, underwriting results are satisfa