中国养老金改革.pptx

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1、1Hewitt AssociatesH“Pension Reform in China”BY STUART H.LECKIE,O.B.E.,J.P.,F.F.A.,F.I.A.CHAIRMAN,GREATER CHINA HEWITT ASSOCIATES TEL:(852)2147 9278FAX:(852)2147 2822 E-mail:21 January 2002The Actuarial Profession-Ageing Population2Hewitt AssociatesHContents Map of China Map of China PRC Population P

2、RC Population Old System(Iron Rice Bowl)Old System(Iron Rice Bowl)World Bank World Bank Pension Principles for the Future Pension Principles for the Future New System(Safety Net)New System(Safety Net)Financing Financing Pension Assets Pension Assets Develop Capital Markets Develop Capital Markets Im

3、plementation Issues Implementation Issues Supplementary Pension Plans Supplementary Pension Plans Opportunities for Fund Managers Opportunities for Fund Managers National Social Security Fund National Social Security Fund Liaoning Experiment Liaoning Experiment Comparison of Hong Kong and PRC Compar

4、ison of Hong Kong and PRC Possible Developments in China Possible Developments in China Major Factors for an Ideal Retirement System Major Factors for an Ideal Retirement System3Hewitt AssociatesHMap of China4Hewitt AssociatesHPRC PopulationTotal:Total:Rural Population:Rural Population:+Urban Popula

5、tion Urban PopulationConsider:Consider:One Child Policy One Child Policy Greatly improved life Greatly improved life expectancy expectancy Dependency Ratio Dependency Ratio deteriorating rapidly deteriorating rapidlyExceeds 1.2 billion Exceeds 1.2 billion900 million 900 million+400 million 400 milli

6、onAges:Ages:0-14 0-14 100 million 100 million15-64 15-64 275 million 275 million65+65+25 million 25 million5Hewitt AssociatesHOld System(Iron Rice Bowl)Workers employed for life by State Owned Enterprises(SOE)Workers employed for life by State Owned Enterprises(SOE)Low Wages but Total Security Low W

7、ages but Total Security Pension at 60(Males)or 55(Females)=80%of final salary Pension at 60(Males)or 55(Females)=80%of final salary Pensions paid by SOEs Pensions paid by SOEs No Pre-funding or Reserves(i.e.pay-as-you-go),but what if No Pre-funding or Reserves(i.e.pay-as-you-go),but what if SOEs una

8、ble to pay pensions?SOEs unable to pay pensions?China is very concerned about social unrest resulting from China is very concerned about social unrest resulting from unpaid pensions and the unemployed unpaid pensions and the unemployed 6Hewitt AssociatesHWorld Bank In early 1990s,World Bank studies

9、how best to solve In early 1990s,World Bank studies how best to solve the ageing issues in China the ageing issues in China World Bank suggested a three pillar approach World Bank suggested a three pillar approach Government run basic pension Government run basic pension Privately run individual acc

10、ounts Privately run individual accounts Voluntary employer/individual savings Voluntary employer/individual savings 1993 and 1996 announcements on social security 1993 and 1996 announcements on social security reform reform Unify social security pension Unify social security pension Create individua

11、l accounts within basic social security Create individual accounts within basic social security Enhance with supplementary pension plans Enhance with supplementary pension plans7Hewitt AssociatesHPension Principles for Future Reduce pension expectations Reduce pension expectations Cost burden to be

12、shared by employer and employee Cost burden to be shared by employer and employee Move towards pre-funding Move towards pre-fundingReasons?Reasons?Population projections Population projections SOE restructuring SOE restructuring Develop domestic capital markets Develop domestic capital markets8Hewit

13、t AssociatesHNew System(Safety Net)New Unified Pension System Reform(July 1997)New Unified Pension System Reform(July 1997)Expand coverage to all urban employees Expand coverage to all urban employees Gradually raise retirement age(to 65 years for men&women)Gradually raise retirement age(to 65 years

14、 for men&women)Benefits Benefits Pillar I=Basic Pension of 20%of average provincial wages Pillar I=Basic Pension of 20%of average provincial wages Pillar II=Individual account based on 11%contributions Pillar II=Individual account based on 11%contributions Pillar III=Voluntary Supplementary Benefits

15、 Pillar III=Voluntary Supplementary Benefits9Hewitt AssociatesHFinancing Employee Employee Employer Employer=4%salary contribution=4%salary contributionincreasing by 1%every 2 increasing by 1%every 2 years up to 8%years up to 8%=Approx 20%of salary=Approx 20%of salary contribution contribution(Subje

16、ct to salary maximum(Subject to salary maximum and local variation)and local variation)10Hewitt AssociatesHPension Assets Pillar I and II pension assets approximately RMB 125bn,Pillar I and II pension assets approximately RMB 125bn,(US$15bn)in government bonds and deposits,managed by Social(US$15bn)

17、in government bonds and deposits,managed by Social Security Bureaus;however not enough for future obligations Security Bureaus;however not enough for future obligations Pillar III pension assets managed by insurance companies;fully Pillar III pension assets managed by insurance companies;fully funde

18、d schemes funded schemes The government is considering several initiatives to meet the The government is considering several initiatives to meet the pensions shortfall pensions shortfall Special taxes Special taxes Lottery Lottery Issue of recognition bonds Issue of recognition bonds Sale of State O

19、wned assets Sale of State Owned assets Launch of Chinese Tracker Launch of Chinese Tracker Fund Fund11Hewitt AssociatesHDevelop Capital Markets SOEs to be restructured:1,000 2,000 SOEs to be restructured:1,000 2,000 Merge,close,downsize Merge,close,downsize or corporatize or corporatize List on stoc

20、k Market through A shares?List on stock Market through A shares?How much capital is required in the next 5 years?10 years?How much capital is required in the next 5 years?10 years?How to apply pension assets to capital markets and maximize How to apply pension assets to capital markets and maximize

21、returns(deposits+bonds+equities+mutual funds+real estate+returns(deposits+bonds+equities+mutual funds+real estate+infrastructure)infrastructure)World Bank estimates pension assets of US$1.8 trillion by 2030 World Bank estimates pension assets of US$1.8 trillion by 203012Hewitt AssociatesHImplementat

22、ion Issues Compliance Compliance Administration Administration Preservation Preservation Portability Portability Affordability Affordability Education Education Taxation Taxation13Hewitt AssociatesHSupplementary Pension Plans Employer sponsored retirement schemes:Group pensions Employer sponsored re

23、tirement schemes:Group pensions through domestic life companies through domestic life companies SPPs to be offered by provinces licensed by Ministry of Labour SPPs to be offered by provinces licensed by Ministry of Labour and Social Security and Social Security“Enterprise annuity”proposals by MLSS“E

24、nterprise annuity”proposals by MLSS Tax position on pensions not clear Tax position on pensions not clear But tax concessions likely to encourage SPPs But tax concessions likely to encourage SPPs By 2005 international insurers can write group business By 2005 international insurers can write group b

25、usiness14Hewitt AssociatesHOpportunities for Fund Managers Pillar I;Pillar I;No No Pillar II;Pillar II;Short term No;Short term No;Medium Term Outsourcing by Social Security Bureaus;Medium Term Outsourcing by Social Security Bureaus;Long-term 401(k)plans?Long-term 401(k)plans?Pillar III;Pillar III;V

26、ia Insurance Companies;Via Insurance Companies;Later segregated funds?Later segregated funds?National Social Security Fund;National Social Security Fund;Possible Possible15Hewitt AssociatesHNational Social Security Fund In the event that some provinces have insufficient In the event that some provin

27、ces have insufficient funds for Pillars I&II,the State Council has funds for Pillars I&II,the State Council has established an“emergency fund”established an“emergency fund”Income:10%of IPOs Income:10%of IPOs National Council for Social Security Fund to act as National Council for Social Security Fun

28、d to act as Trustees Trustees Investment Management:will appoint external Investment Management:will appoint external managers managers Outgo:to be decided Outgo:to be decided16Hewitt AssociatesHLiaoning Experiment Liaoning industrial province in north east Liaoning industrial province in north east

29、 Very serious funding problems Very serious funding problems Document 42(July 2001)Document 42(July 2001)Basic pension 30%of local average earnings Basic pension 30%of local average earnings Individual account Individual account Employees contributions only(8%)Employees contributions only(8%)Must be

30、 properly funded Must be properly funded Major problem of back funding to be solved Major problem of back funding to be solved17Hewitt AssociatesHComparison of Hong Kong and China 2 aspects to every retirement system 2 aspects to every retirement system Design Design Funding Funding How do HK and PR

31、C measure up?How do HK and PRC measure up?Hong KongPRCDesignFundingXX18Hewitt AssociatesHPossible Developments in China Open-ended Funds Open-ended Funds Chinese Tracker Fund Chinese Tracker Fund JV Investment Companies JV Investment Companies Merging of A and B Shares Merging of A and B Shares Merg

32、ing of Stock Markets Merging of Stock Markets Free Market for Foreign Insurance Free Market for Foreign Insurance Liberalisation of Pension and Insurance Funds Investment Liberalisation of Pension and Insurance Funds Investment Development of Unit-linked Insurance and 401(k)Pensions Development of Unit-linked Insurance and 401(k)Pensions Privatisation of Second Pillar Pensions(Individual Privatisation of Second Pillar Pensions(Individual Accounts)Accounts)Convertibility of Renminbi Convertibility of Renminbi International Investment by Institutions International Investment by Institutions