谷歌-2018年东南亚网络经济报告（英文）-2019.6-33页.pdf.pdf

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1、e-Conomy SEA 2018 Southeast Asias internet economySourcese-Conomy SEA leverages Google Consumer Barometer, Temasek research, industry expert interviews, and third-party sources, to provide the best available estimates and projections of the internet economy metrics and trends.AcknowledgmentsWe would

2、 like to acknowledge the insights shared by internet economy companies and industry experts who participated in this research, particularly the contribution of teams at Golden Gate Ventures, Monks Hill Ventures, Openspace, Wavemaker, and Jungle Ventures for providing data and insights on venture cap

3、ital investments in Southeast Asia.Scopee-Conomy SEA is a multi-year research project by Google and Temasek to shed light on the internet economy in Southeast Asia. This years research covers four key sectors of the internet economy: Online Travel (Flights, Hotels, Vacation Rentals); Online Media (A

4、dvertising, Gaming, Subscription Music and Video on Demand); Ride Hailing (Transport, Food Delivery); and e-Commerce (First-Hand Goods). It does not include other sectors of the internet economy that are still in the early stages of development or lack reliable data sources, such as Education, Finan

5、cial Services, Healthcare, and Social Commerce. Our research covers the six largest markets in Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. All monetary values are expressed in U.S. dollars unless specified otherwise.2Introducing e-Conomy SEA 2018In May 2016, G

6、oogle and Temasek released “e-Conomy SEA Unlocking the $200B digital opportunity in Southeast Asia,” a foundational research study that shed light on the fast-growing internet economy in the region. In that research, we presented Southeast Asia as the worlds fastest-growing internet region, with an

7、existing internet user base of 260 million users. We predicted that Southeast Asias internet economy would grow to $200 billion by 2025, driven primarily by the growth of online travel, e-commerce, and online media. We also estimated that in order to achieve that goal, investments of approximately $

8、40 to $50 billion would be required over a decade.In November 2017, we followed it up with “e-Conomy SEA Spotlight 2017 Unprecedented growth for Southeast Asias $50B internet economy.” There, we highlighted some of the most significant industry trends, such as the boom of e-commerce marketplaces and

9、 ride hailing services as well as the acceleration of venture capital investments in the region. We also discussed the encouraging progress made by ecosystem players in addressing challenges that constrain the internet economy from reaching its full potential, such as the availability of homegrown t

10、ech talent, digital payment solutions, last-mile logistics infrastructure, high-speed internet access, and consumer trust.Coping with the continuous development of Southeast Asias internet economy ecosystem, “e-Conomy SEA 2018 Southeast Asias internet economy hits an inflection point” includes secto

11、rs of the internet economy not covered in our previous research, such as Online Vacation Rentals (Online Travel), Subscription Music increase in consumers trust for internet economy services; the ability for internet economy companies to attract talented professionals; the development of logistics n

12、etworks able to handle the expected increase of e-commerce deliveries; widely adopted digital payment solutions to enable Southeast Asian internet users to transact conveniently online and offline; and, lastly, the availability of sufficient venture capital investments to fund internet economy compa

13、nies in their expansion.15Taking 2015, the first year covered in our e-Conomy SEA research, as an arbitrary birthdate marked by the emergence of the first unicorns and by the firstbillion-dollar year in venture capital investments in the region.16Google Consumer Barometer.17GSMA, World Bank.18World

14、Bank, carriers websites.25As highlighted earlier in this report, the availability of venture capital investments has rapidly turned from being a challenge for the Southeast Asian internet economy ecosystem to being one of its core strengths. Yet with the ecosystem turning three years old,15 we have

15、also observed visible progress toward solving for the other five ecosystem challenges.In a region where more than 90% of the users connect to the internet via smartphones,16 the speed and affordability of mobile networks is critical for the development of a robust internet economy. While coverage is

16、 not yet fully reliable in rural areas, there have been significant improvements in infrastructures speed, with Southeast Asian mobile carriers racing to roll out 4G mobile networks that now cover more than 50% of the users connections17 in the six Southeast Asian countries covered in our e-Conomy S

17、EA research.Meanwhile, mobile internet data affordability has also significantly improved. The cost of one gigabyte of mobile internet has more than halved relative to the income of Southeast Asians over the last four years. From exceeding 2% of gross national income (GNI) per capita in 2014, it acc

18、ounts for less than 0.8% of the same measure in 2018,18 and remains above the 1% mark only in the Philippines and Thailand.26With continuous improvements in the internet infrastructure and mobile data affordability, the number of internet users in Southeast Asia has grown from 260 million in 2015 to

19、 350 million in 2018, positioning Southeast Asia among the fastest growing internet regions in the world. Internet user growth is an underlying growth driver for the internet economy, a tailwind that is due to continue going forward amidst demographic and technological trends.Consumer trust rapidly

20、increasing across sectorsThe internet economy relies heavily on consumers trust to function, as online transactions are usually completed and often paid for remotely. Building consumer trust in the internet economy therefore requires time and efforts. After several years when the progress on this fr

21、ont has been incremental, Southeast Asia has hit an inflection point in 2018, with stepped-up consumer adoption across multiple sectors.For example, we estimate that the number of Southeast Asians who have purchased online through e-Commerce platforms has increased from less than 50 million in 2015

22、to over 120 million in 2018. During the same period, the number of active users of Ride Hailing services has increased from 8 million to 35 million. Online gaming the most popular internet economy sector among Southeast Asians continues to gain popularity, with over 164 million Southeast Asians play

23、ing online in 2018 up from 130 million in 2015. Online travel also continues to see a steady increase of travel bookings completed online up to 41% in 2018 from 34% in 2015.Cost of 1GB of mobile internet (% of GNI per capita)Mobile internet data affordabilitySEA 2018SEA 2014IndonesiaMalaysiaPhilippi

24、nesSingaporeThailandVietnam0.8%2.0%0.7%0.2%1.1%0.1%1.2%0.9%-1.2%27Despite the encouraging progress, there is work to be done for Southeast Asian internet economy players and institutions, as consumers trust has not yet permeated into every sector of the internet economy. Some sectors in the early st

25、age of development, such as Financial Services, Education, and Healthcare, are still hindered by a lack of trust and have not yet secured mainstream appeal.In an attempt to overcome consumers reluctance, a growing number of internet economy startups are partnering with traditional economy players su

26、ch as banks, insurance companies, universities, and medical institutions to jointly provide services online. At the same time, the most established internet economy players like Go-Jek and Grab are leveraging the trust secured for their core services in a quest to become Southeast Asians “everyday a

27、pps,” expanding into sectors like Financial Services.In our e-Conomy SEA Spotlight 2017 research, we identified talent as the most critical and unresolved challenge for the development of Southeast Asias internet economy. Initially faced with a shortage of suitable candidates, Southeast Asian intern

28、et economy companies have worked hard to recruit and develop a growing pool of talent across different functions.28In 2018, we estimate that there are over 100,000 skilled professionals employed in internet economy companies in the region across the four sectors covered in our e-Conomy SEA research

29、(e-Commerce, Online Media, Online Travel, and Ride Hailing). These include, for example, employees at Southeast Asian unicorns like Go-Jek, Grab, Lazada, and Sea Group; staff at many internet economy startups and ventures; and the Southeast Asia-based employees of global internet economy companies l

30、ike Expedia, Facebook, and Netflix.As these companies continue to grow their core businesses and expand into new areas, we estimate that they will need to grow their teams by more than 10% per year, significantly faster than the employment growth in the rest of the economy, which is averaging 1% to

31、3% per year in most Southeast Asian countries. Yet, the impact of the internet economy cannot be measured only in terms of absolute numbers. Internet economy companies employ highly-skilled professionals in functions like software engineering, digital marketing, data science, and product marketing t

32、hat often command salaries 3X to 5X higher than median wages in Southeast Asian countries.As they continue to build their teams, internet economy companies will increasingly seek productivity improvements across all functions. Reaping the benefits of scaled operations, continuing to nurture their ta

33、lent through training and development programs, and unlocking improvements in business processes by applying machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are just some of the areas of focus going forward.As a result of these efforts, we expect that employee productivity (express

34、ed here as GMV per employee) in the internet economy will improve from approximately one employee for every $700,000 of GMV in 2018 to one employee for every $1.2 million of GMV by 2025. This, in turn, will be a key ingredient in making the business models of internet economy companies more sustaina

35、ble in line with the expectations of their investors and management.Internet economy direct jobs (FTE)Internet economy direct jobs20182025100k200k100kCAGR10% CAGR19 We estimate Full time equivalent (FTE) jobs as total order volumes divided by estimated average productivity (orders/hour) divided by 4

36、0 hours per week.FTE jobs estimated this way are not directly comparable with figures released by internet economy companies which comprise of the total number of partners on their platforms.20Go-Jek, Grab websites.Improved logistics networks handling millions of deliveries every dayAnother importan

37、t enabler for the internet economy, in particular for e-Commerce sector, is the development of logistics networks that are able to cope with the rapid increase of deliveries, which have grown from about 800,000 per day in 2015 to more than 3 million per day in 2018 across Southeast Asia. With peaks

38、of more than 3X daily averages experienced around shopping festivals like Singles Day, logistic networks in the region have faced huge challenges.29In addition to their teams of professionals, internet economy companies are creating millions of jobs opportunities for partners across the region. e-Co

39、mmerce logistics, Online Transport, and Online Food Delivery services already enrolled more than four million partners on flexible jobs schedules, equating to approximately 500,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs.19 These are projected to increase 3X by 2025 in order to cope with the expected growth

40、 of these sectors.These job opportunities have gained popularity due to two primary benefits. First, they offer partners the ability to work on their own schedules, whether that is full time or part time, or on their preferred days of the week and times of the day. Second, they offer opportunities f

41、or partners who want to supplement their income, for example, to cover part of the costs of owning or renting a vehicle. According to research by Ride Hailing players,20 partner jobs offer wages that are 20% to 30% higher than alternative job opportunities in each market.Full Time Equivalent (FTE) P

42、artnersTotal Partners201820250.1M0.2MInternet economy partner jobs12M1.5M4M 0.5M30In addition to their teams of professionals, internet economy companies are creating millions of jobs opportunities for partners across the region. e-Commerce logistics, Online Transport, and Online Food Delivery servi

43、ces already enrolled more than four million partners on flexible jobs schedules, equating to approximately 500,000 full-time equivalent (FTE) jobs. These are projected to increase 3X by 2025 in order to cope with the expected growth of these sectors.Multiple players have tried to turn these challeng

44、es into business opportunities. Some e-Commerce players, like Lazada Express and Redmart, have invested to develop their own logistics networks. Other e-Commerce players have elected to rely on third-party services, provided by well-established logistics companies like DHL, JNE, and Singpost or by s

45、tartups like NinjaVan and J&T, which have built systems specifically catered to handle e-Commerce deliveries. Increasingly, many are offering same-day delivery capabilities in metro areas as a differentiator to win consumers preference and to unlock opportunities in categories like fresh groceries.1

46、00k20152018E-Commerce deliveries (daily)0.8M3M21Google Surveys, Q2 2018.The last challenge constraining the growth of the internet economy in Southeast Asia identified in our previous e-Conomy SEA research was the insufficient adoption and usage of digital payment solutions.A recent Google Survey su

47、ggests that less than one in two internet users in Southeast Asia has adopted digital payment services, with adoption as low as one in five users in the Philippines and one in four users in Vietnam.21 Digital payment services account for an even smaller share of the overall transaction values, anecd

48、otally in the low single digits for most internet economy players. That is remarkably low when compared, for example, with China, where digital payment solutions like Alipay and WeChat Pay have gained ubiquitous usage among both online and offline merchants.This has hindered the growth of digital go

49、ods such as Gaming and Subscription Music & Video on Demand, with most Southeast Asian internet users still favoring free or advertising supported alternatives, despite being open to pay for the services if more convenient digital payment solutions were available. On the other hand, for physical goods, while all leading e-Commerce players in the region accept payments via cash on delivery, this comes with friction and costs for both users and for e-Commerce players, which face a higher proportion of cancelled orders and incur higher charges by delivery companie