2021年欧洲-非洲互联互通展望：后疫情时代挑战和战略机遇.docx

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1、ME。 。/6 789860680026 NCQS 二 80966L9CMNss_Europe-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic OpportunitiesEurope-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021: Post- Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunitiesby Michael Tanchum*IntroductionFollowing the Covid-19 pandemic, the Europ

2、ean Union stands at a critical junction in the international scramble to establish Europe-Africa commercial corridors across the Mediterranean basin. Prior to the pandemics outbreak, the EU already faced a pressing strategic challenge to form a coherent policy in North Africa, which has become an ar

3、ena of intense global competition over the new nexus of trade and energy transit routes as well as industrial manufacturing value chains that will connect Europe, Africa and Middle East.During the previous decade, China became Africas top trade partner while Russia and Turkey massively expanded thei

4、r trade relationships on the continent, witnessing rates of growth in trade that surpassed the EU by a factor of seven and five respectively. From 2006 to 2018, Russias trade with Africa grew by more than 300 per cent and Turkeys by more than 200 per cent, while the European Unions trade with Africa

5、 grew by 41 per cent; Economist, “The New Scramble for Africa，in The Economist, 7 March 2019, leaders/2019/03/07/the-new-scramble-for-africa. The members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, have similarly increased their economic

6、engagement with Africa.The pandemic has intensified the urgency for the EU to focus on transMediterranean connectivity. By 2025, Africa will have over a hundred cities with more than one million inhabitants. Robert Muggah and Katie Hill, African Cities Will Double in Population by 2050. Here Are 4 W

7、ays to Make Sure They Thrive,J in World Economic Forum Articles, 27 June 2018, s:Z/ weforum.Michael Tanchum teaches at Universidad de Navarra and is a senior fellow at the Austrian Institute for European and Security Policy (AIES). The author thanks Daniel “Mac” Lang, Matilde Romito, Gabriela Pajuel

8、o and Maria del Pilar Cazali Castanon for their research assistance., This paper was prepared in the context of the New-Med Research Network, a project run by the Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) with the support of the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation (MAECI), t

9、he OSCE Secretariat in Vienna and the Compagnia di San Paolo Foundation, May 2021. Views expressed are the authors alone. The African Continental Free Trade Area,Europe-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunitiesconnectivity from the Maghreb to the wider Bla

10、ck Sea, forms the primary link in the embryonic central Maghreb Europe-Africa corridor that utilises Algerias connectivity. See, Michael Tanchum, Libya, Energy, and the Mediterraneans New Great Game，in Analyses of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI), No. 110/2020 (23 September 2020), . org/wps/portal/r

11、ielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ aril 10-2020-tanchum-libya-energy-and-the-mediterraneans-new-great+game.Because the Taranto-Malta segment of the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia connectivity network was previously designated as TEN-Ts Scandinavian-Mediterranean corridors sout

12、hern terminal link, Turkey5s Yilport could eventually become the operator of the hub of what could be the most prized Europe-Africa corridor. Interconnecting the EU5s ScandinavianMediterranean Corridor with Africas Algeria-to-Nigeria Trans-Saharan Highway, the Italy-Tunisia segment of the Turkey-Ita

13、ly-Tunisia network could potentially form the vital link for a megacorridor connecting Europe and Africa.Italy is laying the groundwork for the TurkeyItalyTunisia networks extension to Algeria through the involvement of Italys leading construction firms in Algerias East-West highway mega-project tra

14、versing the entire length of Algerias coast.connectivity from the Maghreb to the wider Black Sea, forms the primary link in the embryonic central Maghreb Europe-Africa corridor that utilises Algerias connectivity. See, Michael Tanchum, Libya, Energy, and the Mediterraneans New Great Game，in Analyses

15、 of the Elcano Royal Institute (ARI), No. 110/2020 (23 September 2020), . org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ aril 10-2020-tanchum-libya-energy-and-the-mediterraneans-new-great+game.Because the Taranto-Malta segment of the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia connecti

16、vity network was previously designated as TEN-Ts Scandinavian-Mediterranean corridors southern terminal link, Turkey5s Yilport could eventually become the operator of the hub of what could be the most prized Europe-Africa corridor. Interconnecting the EU5s ScandinavianMediterranean Corridor with Afr

17、icas Algeria-to-Nigeria Trans-Saharan Highway, the Italy-Tunisia segment of the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia network could potentially form the vital link for a megacorridor connecting Europe and Africa.Italy is laying the groundwork for the TurkeyItalyTunisia networks extension to Algeria through the invol

18、vement of Italys leading construction firms in Algerias East-West highway mega-project traversing the entire length of Algerias coast.-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_The Turkey-ltaly-Tunisia networks central hub is Italys deep-sea port of Taranto located on Italys southern tip at the hea

19、rt of the Mediterranean Sea. Managed by Turkish port operator Yilport, the Taranto port began servicing the Turkey- ItalyTunisia network in early July 2020 (Figure 4). The TarantoTunisia segment of the network simultaneously forms the core link of a potential Europe-Africa commercial transportation

20、corridor by connecting the central Maghrebs coast to Europe via Italys high-speed rail system. From Tunisias Bizerte port, the corridor can also reach (by highway) Algiers, the Mediterranean terminal for the TransSaharan Highway (Route 2 in the Trans-African Highway system in Figure 3), potentially

21、extending the ItalyTunisia corridor southward into West Africa as far as Lagos, Nigeria.lcmocm oe = e sr山CLdFigure 4 | The Turkey-ItalyTunisia corridorSource,. Michael Tanchum, uLibya, Energy, and the Mediterraneans New Great Game； cit.The Europe-Africa segment of the Turkey-Italy-Tunisia networks c

22、entral node at Taranto extends southward to Maltas Freeport Terminal at Marsaxlokk also owned and operated by Yilport and then to Tunisias port of Bizerte. The TarantoMalta maritime link is also supported by the Ell as the southernmost link in the Union5s own ScandinavianMediterranean Corridor”, one

23、 of the nine core corridors of the European Commission Trans-European Transportation Network, or TEN-T programme. TEN-Ts Scandinavian-Mediterranean Corridor is the EU5sEurope-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunitiescentral north-south transportation arter

24、y, spanning the Scandinavian peninsula, Denmark, Germany, Austria, Italy and Malta (Figure 5 pink line).ME。、 。&6 Lco986ob86 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_SlochhoimVcnttpiHKUipfdaV-almoHamburgOwbnidcAotteMdfn.RankfuiLe HavreluiefnboufgMunkhKlagenfun曲我心HuMged9牛皿父a NurembergTurku NueM。ConstiwHaLATION (EU) No 131

25、6/2013 - 0J. L34820)Note: Baltic-Adriatic (dark blue); North Sea-Baltic (red); Mediterranean (green); Orient/East Med (brown); Scandinavian-Mediterranean (pink); Rhine-Alpine (orange); Atlantic (yellow); North Sea-Mediterranean (violet); Rhine-Danube (blue).Source: European Commission website: Trans

26、-European Transport Network (TEN-T), .L2/2013Leoe oe - LOJsr山CLdFigure 5 | TEN-T core network corridorsEurope-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunities-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_Italy s Anas Inte

27、rnational and Italconsult are building the 399 km easternmost segment that runs from Bordj Bon Arreridj to the Tunisian border. Anas International Enterprise website: Marche n, 5 - Lotto Est Autostrada Est-Ovest, s: anasinternational /it/algeria?layout=edit&id=29; Italconsult website: Algeria East W

28、est Highway, Lot East, . The upgrade accounts for over half the 783 km distance between Tunisias Bizerte port, the Turkey-ItalyTunisia corridors African landfall, and Algiers, the northern starting point of the Trans-Saharan Highway. Although Italy has been intimately involved in the construction of

29、 Algerias transportation infrastructure and maintains a substantial presence in Algerias oil and natural gas industries, Rome has not coupled Algerias transportation infrastructure development with investments in local industrial production linked to a manufacturing value chain. As such, Italys role

30、 in Algerias commercial connectivity remains far from certain as Turkey5s presence in Libya is increasing Ankara5s political and economic clout in neighbouring Tunis and Algiers.Turkey has made strong inroads in Algeria through 3.5 billion US dollars of investments, ranking Turkey as one of Algerias

31、 top foreign investors. Michael Tanchum, ultaly and Turkeys Europe-to-Africa Commercial Corridor: Rome and Ankaras Geopolitical Symbiosis Is Creating a New Mediterranean Strategic Paradigm”，in A IES Fokus, No. 10/2020 (August 2020), p. 2, . One month into Turkeys game-changing Libya intervention, Tu

32、rkeys President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Algeria in late January 2020, where he announced the goal of raising Turkey-Algeria bilateral trade to 5 billion US dollars. Declaring Algeria as “one of our strategic partners in North Africa，Erdogan explained that Algeria is one of Turkeys most importan

33、t gateways to the Maghreb and AfricaTurkish Presidency, uNe Will Increase Our Trade Volume with African Countries to $50 Billion”, 26 January 2021, ; uTurkey, Algeria Aim for $5 Billion Trade, in Hurriyet Daily News, 27 January 2020, .Turkey5s strategic partner Qatar also has invested in Algeria, cr

34、eating a Qatari manufacturing presence. In 2013, Qatari Steel International opened a steel manufacturing complex, Algerian Qatari Steel, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of wire rod and 1.5 million tons of reinforcing bar./二 Algerian Qatari Steel website: . Qatar has also made siza

35、ble investments in Tunisia. Dohas approximately 3 billion US dollars of investments makes Qatar Tunisias second largest investor, behind France but leapfrogging ahead of both Italy and Germany. Amirs Visit Confirms Tunisias Distinguished Ties with Qatar，in Gulf Times, 25 February 2020, .lcmocm oe =

36、e sr山CLdWhile the Turkey-Qatar partnership has gained economic and political influence in the central Maghreb, it has not secured a dominant position in the central corridors development. Bizerte and Tunisias five other medium-sized ports do not provide an economy of scale to sustain an economic cor

37、ridor. With TunisiasEurope-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunities-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_8.8 per cent economic contraction in 2020,30 it remains unclear when construction will begin on Tuni

38、sias proposed deep-sea port at Enfidha. In the absence of a modern deep-sea port, the Turkey-ltalyTunisia network could become a subsystem in Chinas BRI architecture.2 7 Chinas opportunity in the Central Maghreb corridorThe incorporation of the Turkey-ltalyTunisia network into a BRI-oriented central

39、 corridor may result from Chinas construction of El Hamdania port in the Algerian municipality of Cherchell. Following Chinas CITIC Constructions success in building a sizable segment of Algerias East-West highway, Algiers inked a 2016 deal with the China State Construction Engineering Corporation a

40、nd the China Harbor Engineering Company to construct El Hamdania as a massive transhipment port located about 60 km west of Algiers.31 With a container capacity of 6.5 million TEU, El Hamdania could function as the hub of a Europe-Africa corridor linking the Taranto port to the Trans-Saharan Highway

41、.In July 2019, Algeria confirmed by presidential decree its September 2018 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China in which Algeria agreed to participate in Beijings BRI programme. Slowed but not deterred by Covid-19 or Algerias changing political environment, on 11 October 2020 Chinas Internat

42、ional Development Cooperation Agency signed an economic and technical cooperation agreement with Algiers to deepen Algerias BRI participation.32 Algerias economy contracted by about 6 per cent in 2020, Mongi Saidani, Tunisias Economy Records Unprecedented Contraction，in Asharq Al-Awsat, 17 February

43、2021, .31 China to Construct Mega Sea Port in Algeria”, in Construction Review Online, 5 April 2016, s:/ construction reviewonli ne /?p=32254.“China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA), CIDCA Chairman Holds Talks with Secretary-General of Algerian Foreign Ministry, 13 October 2020,

44、; Algeria, China Ink Economic and Technical Cooperation Agreement，in APS, 11 October 2020, .33 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Datamapper: Algeria - Real GDP Growth, external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCHWEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD/DZA. forcing Algiers to reduce planned investments, slashing investments of it

45、s state-owned energy company Sonatrach by 50 per cent. Algeria to Cut Spending and Energy Investment, Delay Projects，in Reuters、22 March 2020, s:/reut.rs/2J9MmaK. Requiring seven years of work at an estimated 6 billion US dollars cost, Mlnfrastrutture: Tanchum (Aies) a Nova； porto di Hamdania proget

46、to win-win per Algeria e Cina”，in Agenzia Nova, 7 October 2020, da87644.05066204/3131170/2020-10-07/infrastrutture-tanchum-aies-a-nova-porto-di-hamdania- progetto-win-win-per-algeria-e-cina/linked. El Hamdania completion remains uncertain.lcmocm oe = e sr山CLdIn 2020, Algerias crude oil and liquefied

47、 natural gas (LNG) exports dropped by about 30 per cent each. Verity Ratcliffe, Souhail Karam and Salma El Wardany, 4An Oil Country No More? Algerian Exports Sink Rapidly, in Bloomberg, 8 February 2021, articles/2021-02-08/an-oil-country-no-more-algeria-s-energy-exports-sink-rapidly. While a recover

48、y in energy prices could push AlgeriaEurope-Africa Connectivity Outlook 2021:Post-Covid-19 Challenges and Strategic Opportunities-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_-w Eoe 。&6 789860080016 NCDS 二 80966L9OJNss_into positive economic growth in 2021, Algiers would require an oil price of 135 US dollars to balance its budget, which is hardly a realistic scenario. IMF estimates, see ibid. Algeria is unlikely to increase production capacity to meet the rising global demand without outside financing. Despite depleting its foreig