成熟股票市场的基本补偿额2012年.xls

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1、Returns by yearCustomixed Geometric risk premium estimatorWhat is your riskfree rate?LTEstimates of risk premiums from 1928,over the last 40 years and over the last 10 yearsEnter your starting year1929are provided at the bottom of this table.Value of stocks in starting year:143.811155Value of T.Bill

2、s in starting year:103.08Value of T.bonds in starting year:100.835471Estimate of risk premium based on your inputs:3.89%AnnualAnnual ReturnsReturns onon InvestmentsInvestments in inCompoundedCompounded ValueValue ofof$100100YearStocksT.BillsT.BondsStocksT.Bills192843.81%3.08%0.84%$143.81$103.081929-

3、8.30%3.16%4.20%$131.88$106.341930-25.12%4.55%4.54%$98.75$111.181931-43.84%2.31%-2.56%$55.46$113.741932-8.64%1.07%8.79%$50.66$114.96193349.98%0.96%1.86%$75.99$116.061934-1.19%0.32%7.96%$75.09$116.44193546.74%0.18%4.47%$110.18$116.64193631.94%0.17%5.02%$145.38$116.841937-35.34%0.30%1.38%$94.00$117.191

4、93829.28%0.08%4.21%$121.53$117.291939-1.10%0.04%4.41%$120.20$117.331940-10.67%0.03%5.40%$107.37$117.361941-12.77%0.08%-2.02%$93.66$117.46194219.17%0.34%2.29%$111.61$117.85194325.06%0.38%2.49%$139.59$118.30194419.03%0.38%2.58%$166.15$118.75194535.82%0.38%3.80%$225.67$119.201946-8.43%0.38%3.13%$206.65

5、$119.6519475.20%0.57%0.92%$217.39$120.3319485.70%1.02%1.95%$229.79$121.56194918.30%1.10%4.66%$271.85$122.90195030.81%1.17%0.43%$355.60$124.34195123.68%1.48%-0.30%$439.80$126.18195218.15%1.67%2.27%$519.62$128.291953-1.21%1.89%4.14%$513.35$130.72195452.56%0.96%3.29%$783.18$131.98195532.60%1.66%-1.34%$

6、1,038.47$134.1719567.44%2.56%-2.26%$1,115.73$137.601957-10.46%3.23%6.80%$999.05$142.04195843.72%1.78%-2.10%$1,435.84$144.57Page 1Returns by year195912.06%3.26%-2.65%$1,608.95$149.2719600.34%3.05%11.64%$1,614.37$153.82196126.64%2.27%2.06%$2,044.40$157.301962-8.81%2.78%5.69%$1,864.26$161.67196322.61%3

7、.11%1.68%$2,285.80$166.70196416.42%3.51%3.73%$2,661.02$172.54196512.40%3.90%0.72%$2,990.97$179.281966-9.97%4.84%2.91%$2,692.74$187.95196723.80%4.33%-1.58%$3,333.69$196.10196810.81%5.26%3.27%$3,694.23$206.411969-8.24%6.56%-5.01%$3,389.77$219.9619703.56%6.69%16.75%$3,510.49$234.66197114.22%4.54%9.79%$

8、4,009.72$245.32197218.76%3.95%2.82%$4,761.76$255.011973-14.31%6.73%3.66%$4,080.44$272.161974-25.90%7.78%1.99%$3,023.54$293.33197537.00%5.99%3.61%$4,142.10$310.90197623.83%4.97%15.98%$5,129.20$326.351977-6.98%5.13%1.29%$4,771.20$343.0919786.51%6.93%-0.78%$5,081.77$366.87197918.52%9.94%0.67%$6,022.89$

9、403.33198031.74%11.22%-2.99%$7,934.26$448.581981-4.70%14.30%8.20%$7,561.16$512.73198220.42%11.01%32.81%$9,105.08$569.18198322.34%8.45%3.20%$11,138.90$617.2619846.15%9.61%13.73%$11,823.51$676.60198531.24%7.49%25.71%$15,516.60$727.26198618.49%6.04%24.28%$18,386.33$771.1519875.81%5.72%-4.96%$19,455.08$

10、815.27198816.54%6.45%8.22%$22,672.40$867.86198931.48%8.11%17.69%$29,808.58$938.241990-3.06%7.55%6.24%$28,895.11$1,009.08199130.23%5.61%15.00%$37,631.51$1,065.6919927.49%3.41%9.36%$40,451.51$1,101.9819939.97%2.98%14.21%$44,483.33$1,134.8419941.33%3.99%-8.04%$45,073.14$1,180.07199537.20%5.52%23.48%$61

11、,838.19$1,245.15199623.82%5.02%1.43%$76,566.48$1,307.68199731.86%5.05%9.94%$100,958.71$1,373.76199828.34%4.73%14.92%$129,568.35$1,438.70199920.89%4.51%-8.25%$156,629.15$1,503.582000-9.03%5.76%16.66%$142,482.69$1,590.23Page 2Returns by year2001-11.85%3.67%5.57%$125,598.83$1,648.632002-21.97%1.66%15.1

12、2%$98,009.73$1,675.96200328.36%1.03%0.38%$125,801.18$1,693.22200410.74%1.23%4.49%$139,315.72$1,714.0020054.83%3.01%2.87%$146,050.90$1,765.59200615.61%4.68%1.96%$168,853.19$1,848.1820075.48%4.64%10.21%$178,114.34$1,933.982008-36.55%1.59%20.10%$113,009.37$1,964.64200925.94%0.14%-11.12%$142,318.62$1,96

13、7.29201014.82%0.13%8.46%$163,411.79$1,969.8420112.07%0.03%16.04%$166,787.51$1,970.44RiskRisk PremiumPremiumArithmeticArithmetic AverageAverageStocks-T.Bills1928-201111.20%3.66%5.41%7.55%1962-201110.60%5.22%7.24%5.38%2002-20114.93%1.81%6.85%3.12%RiskRisk PremiumPremiumGeometricGeometric AverageAverag

14、eStocks-T.Bills1928-20119.23%3.61%5.14%5.62%1962-20119.20%5.19%6.85%4.02%2002-20112.88%1.80%6.49%1.08%Page 3Returns by yearT.BondsStocks-Bills Stocks-BondsHistorical risk premium$100.8440.73%42.98%$105.07-11.46%-12.50%$109.85-29.67%-29.66%$107.03-46.15%-41.28%$116.44-9.71%-17.43%$118.6049.02%48.13%$

15、128.05-1.51%-9.15%$133.7846.57%42.27%$140.4931.77%26.93%$142.43-35.64%-36.72%$148.4329.21%25.07%$154.98-1.14%-5.51%$163.35-10.70%-16.08%$160.04-12.85%-10.75%$163.7218.84%16.88%$167.7924.68%22.57%$172.1218.65%16.45%$178.6735.44%32.02%$184.26-8.81%-11.56%$185.954.63%4.28%$189.584.68%3.75%$198.4217.20%

16、13.64%$199.2729.63%30.38%$198.6822.20%23.97%$203.1916.48%15.88%$211.61-3.10%-5.35%$218.5751.60%49.27%$215.6530.94%33.93%$210.794.88%9.70%$225.11-13.69%-17.25%$220.3941.94%45.82%Estimates of risk premiums from 1928,over the last 40 years and over the last 10 yearsare provided at the bottom of this ta

17、ble.Page 4Returns by year$214.568.80%14.70%$239.53-2.71%-11.30%6.11%$244.4624.37%24.58%6.62%$258.38-11.59%-14.51%5.97%$262.7419.50%20.93%6.36%$272.5312.91%12.69%6.53%$274.498.50%11.68%6.66%$282.47-14.81%-12.88%6.11%$278.0119.47%25.38%6.57%$287.115.55%7.54%6.60%$272.71-14.80%-3.23%6.33%$318.41-3.12%-

18、13.19%5.90%$349.579.68%4.43%5.87%$359.4214.80%15.94%6.08%$372.57-21.03%-17.97%5.50%$379.98-33.68%-27.89%4.64%$393.6831.01%33.39%5.17%$456.6118.86%7.85%5.22%$462.50-12.11%-8.27%4.93%$458.90-0.42%7.29%4.97%$461.988.58%17.85%5.21%$448.1720.52%34.72%5.73%$484.91-19.00%-12.90%5.37%$644.049.41%-12.40%5.10

19、%$664.6513.89%19.14%5.34%$755.92-3.47%-7.59%5.12%$950.2923.75%5.52%5.13%$1,181.0612.46%-5.79%4.97%$1,122.470.09%10.77%5.07%$1,214.7810.09%8.31%5.12%$1,429.7223.37%13.78%5.24%$1,518.87-10.61%-9.30%5.00%$1,746.7724.62%15.23%5.14%$1,910.304.09%-1.87%5.03%$2,181.776.98%-4.24%4.90%$2,006.43-2.66%9.36%4.9

20、7%$2,477.5531.68%13.71%5.08%$2,512.9418.79%22.39%5.32%$2,762.7126.81%21.92%5.53%$3,174.9523.61%13.42%5.63%$2,912.8816.38%29.14%5.96%$3,398.03-14.79%-25.69%5.51%Page 5Returns by year$3,587.37-15.52%-17.42%5.17%$4,129.65-23.62%-37.08%4.53%$4,145.1527.33%27.98%4.82%$4,331.309.52%6.25%4.84%$4,455.501.82

21、%1.97%4.80%$4,542.8710.94%13.65%4.91%$5,006.690.84%-4.73%4.79%$6,013.10-38.14%-56.65%3.88%$5,344.6525.80%37.05%4.29%$5,796.9614.69%6.36%4.31%$6,726.522.04%-13.97%4.10%StandardStandard ErrorErrorStocks-T.BondsStocks-T.BillsStocks-T.Bonds5.79%2.22%2.36%3.36%2.39%2.68%-1.92%6.46%8.94%Stocks-T.Bonds4.10

22、%2.35%-3.61%RiskRisk PremiumPremiumPage 6S&P 500&Raw DataYearS&P 500DividendsDividend Yield T.Bond rateReturn on bond192717.660.623.50%3.17%192824.351.054.30%3.45%0.84%192921.450.884.10%3.36%4.20%193015.340.724.70%3.22%4.54%19318.120.506.10%3.93%-2.56%19326.920.507.20%3.35%8.79%19339.970.414.10%3.53

23、%1.86%19349.50.353.70%3.01%7.96%193513.430.513.80%2.84%4.47%193617.180.543.14%2.59%5.02%193710.550.565.30%2.73%1.38%193813.140.503.80%2.56%4.21%193912.460.544.30%2.35%4.41%194010.580.555.20%2.01%5.40%19418.690.546.20%2.47%-2.02%19429.770.596.00%2.49%2.29%194311.670.554.70%2.49%2.49%194413.280.614.60

24、%2.48%2.58%194517.360.683.90%2.33%3.80%194615.30.603.90%2.24%3.13%194715.30.805.20%2.39%0.92%194815.20.976.40%2.44%1.95%194916.791.197.10%2.19%4.66%195020.431.537.50%2.39%0.43%195123.771.506.30%2.70%-0.30%195226.571.515.70%2.75%2.27%195324.811.445.80%2.59%4.14%195435.981.875.20%2.51%3.29%195545.482.

25、234.90%2.96%-1.34%195646.672.194.70%3.59%-2.26%195739.991.804.50%3.21%6.80%195855.212.264.10%3.86%-2.10%195959.891.983.30%4.69%-2.65%196058.111.983.41%3.84%11.64%196171.552.042.85%4.06%2.06%196263.12.153.40%3.86%5.69%196375.022.353.13%4.13%1.68%196484.752.583.05%4.18%3.73%196592.432.833.06%4.62%0.72

26、%196680.332.883.59%4.84%2.91%196796.472.983.09%5.70%-1.58%1968103.863.042.93%6.03%3.27%196992.063.243.52%7.65%-5.01%Page 7S&P 500&Raw Data197092.153.193.46%6.39%16.75%1971102.093.163.10%5.93%9.79%1972118.053.192.70%6.36%2.82%197397.553.613.70%6.74%3.66%197468.563.725.43%7.43%1.99%197590.193.734.14%8

27、.00%3.61%1976107.464.223.93%6.87%15.98%197795.14.865.11%7.69%1.29%197896.115.185.39%9.01%-0.78%1979107.945.975.53%10.39%0.67%1980135.766.444.74%12.84%-2.99%1981122.556.835.57%13.72%8.20%1982140.646.934.93%10.54%32.81%1983164.937.124.32%11.83%3.20%1984167.247.834.68%11.50%13.73%1985211.288.203.88%9.2

28、6%25.71%1986242.178.193.38%7.11%24.28%1987247.089.173.71%8.99%-4.96%1988277.7210.223.68%9.11%8.22%1989353.411.733.32%7.84%17.69%1990330.2212.353.74%8.08%6.24%1991417.0912.973.11%7.09%15.00%1992435.7112.642.90%6.77%9.36%1993466.4512.692.72%5.77%14.21%1994459.2713.362.91%7.81%-8.04%1995615.9314.172.30

29、%5.71%23.48%1996747.7414.891.99%6.30%1.43%1997970.4315.521.60%5.81%9.94%19981229.2316.201.32%4.65%14.92%19991469.2516.711.14%6.44%-8.25%20001320.2816.271.23%5.11%16.66%20011148.0915.741.37%5.05%5.57%2002879.8216.081.83%3.82%15.12%20031111.9117.391.56%4.25%0.38%20041211.9219.441.60%4.22%4.49%20051248

30、.2922.221.78%4.39%2.87%20061418.324.881.75%4.70%1.96%20071468.3627.731.89%4.02%10.21%2008903.2528.393.14%2.21%20.10%20091115.122.412.01%3.84%-11.12%20101257.6422.731.81%3.29%8.46%20111257.626.022.07%1.88%16.04%Page 8T.Bill ratesTitle:3-Month Treasury Bill:Secondary Market RateSeries ID:TB3MSSource:B

31、oard of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemRelease:H.15 Selected Interest RatesSeasonal Adjustment:Not ApplicableFrequency:MonthlyUnits:PercentDate Range:1934-01-01 to 2008-11-01Last Updated:2008-12-02 10:34 AM CSTNotes:Averages of Business Days,Discount BasisDATEVALUEYearSumAverage1月-340.721934

32、1.290.32%Feb0.6219350.70.18%Mar0.2419360.70.17%Apr0.1519371.210.30%May0.1619380.310.08%June0.1519390.150.04%july0.1519400.100.03%Aug0.1919410.330.08%Sept0.2119421.350.34%Oct0.2719431.520.38%Nov0.2519441.520.38%Dec0.2319451.520.38%1月-350.2019461.520.38%Feb0.1919472.270.57%Mar0.1519484.091.02%Apr0.151

33、9494.411.10%May0.1519504.691.17%June0.1519515.911.48%july0.1519526.691.67%Aug0.1619537.571.89%Sept0.2019543.850.96%Oct0.2019556.641.66%Nov0.16195610.222.56%Dec0.15195712.923.23%1月-360.2019587.111.78%Feb0.20195913.023.26%Mar0.20196012.183.05%Apr0.2019619.072.27%May0.20196211.112.78%June0.20196312.443

34、.11%july0.15196414.023.51%Aug0.20196515.613.90%Sept0.16196619.364.84%Oct0.13196717.334.33%Nov0.11196821.045.26%Dec0.12196926.256.56%1月-370.17197026.746.69%Feb0.15197118.164.54%Mar0.38197215.813.95%Apr0.56197326.906.73%Page 9T.Bill ratesMay0.41197431.117.78%June0.36197523.965.99%july0.28197619.884.97

35、%Aug0.29197720.515.13%Sept0.31197827.736.93%Oct0.20197939.759.94%Nov0.09198044.8811.22%Dec0.11198157.2014.30%1月-380.10198244.0411.01%Feb0.08198333.798.45%Mar0.08198438.459.61%Apr0.09198529.957.49%May0.05198624.146.04%June0.05198722.895.72%july0.07198825.806.45%Aug0.06198932.448.11%Sept0.08199030.207

36、.55%Oct0.05199122.445.61%Nov0.04199213.623.41%Dec0.03199311.932.98%1月-390.03199415.943.99%Feb0.03199522.065.52%Mar0.03199620.095.02%Apr0.03199720.215.05%May0.03199818.914.73%June0.03199918.044.51%july0.04200023.055.76%Aug0.05200114.693.67%Sept0.1420026.631.66%Oct0.0520034.121.03%Nov0.0520044.911.23%

37、Dec0.04200512.043.01%1月-400.01200618.714.68%Feb0.02200718.574.64%Mar0.0220086.341.59%Apr0.0220090.540.14%May0.062010June0.102011july0.05Aug0.04Sept0.05Oct0.02Nov0.02Dec0.021月-410.02Feb0.04Mar0.11Apr0.10May0.11June0.12july0.12Aug0.13Page 10T.Bill ratesSept0.10Oct0.09Nov0.28Dec0.331月-420.27Feb0.25Mar0

38、.25Apr0.32May0.37June0.37july0.38Aug0.38Sept0.38Oct0.38Nov0.38Dec0.381月-430.38Feb0.38Mar0.38Apr0.38May0.38June0.38july0.38Aug0.38Sept0.38Oct0.38Nov0.38Dec0.381月-440.38Feb0.38Mar0.38Apr0.38May0.38June0.38july0.38Aug0.38Sept0.38Oct0.38Nov0.38Dec0.381月-450.38Feb0.38Mar0.38Apr0.38May0.38June0.38july0.38

39、Aug0.38Sept0.38Oct0.38Nov0.38Dec0.38Page 11T.Bill rates1月-460.38Feb0.38Mar0.38Apr0.38May0.38June0.38july0.38Aug0.38Sept0.38Oct0.38Nov0.38Dec0.381月-470.38Feb0.38Mar0.38Apr0.38May0.38June0.38july0.66Aug0.75Sept0.80Oct0.85Nov0.92Dec0.951月-480.97Feb1.00Mar1.00Apr1.00May1.00June1.00july1.00Aug1.06Sept1.0

40、9Oct1.12Nov1.14Dec1.161月-491.17Feb1.17Mar1.17Apr1.17May1.17June1.17july1.02Aug1.04Sept1.07Oct1.05Nov1.08Dec1.101月-501.07Feb1.12Mar1.12Apr1.15Page 12T.Bill ratesMay1.16June1.15july1.16Aug1.20Sept1.30Oct1.31Nov1.36Dec1.341月-511.34Feb1.36Mar1.40Apr1.47May1.55June1.45july1.56Aug1.62Sept1.63Oct1.54Nov1.5

41、6Dec1.731月-521.57Feb1.54Mar1.59Apr1.57May1.67June1.70july1.81Aug1.83Sept1.71Oct1.74Nov1.85Dec2.091月-531.96Feb1.97Mar2.01Apr2.19May2.16June2.11july2.04Aug2.04Sept1.79Oct1.38Nov1.44Dec1.601月-541.18Feb0.97Mar1.03Apr0.97May0.76June0.64july0.72Aug0.92Page 13T.Bill ratesSept1.01Oct0.98Nov0.93Dec1.151月-551

42、.22Feb1.17Mar1.28Apr1.59May1.45June1.41july1.60Aug1.90Sept2.07Oct2.23Nov2.24Dec2.541月-562.41Feb2.32Mar2.25Apr2.60May2.61June2.49july2.31Aug2.60Sept2.84Oct2.90Nov2.99Dec3.211月-573.11Feb3.10Mar3.08Apr3.07May3.06June3.29july3.16Aug3.37Sept3.53Oct3.58Nov3.31Dec3.041月-582.44Feb1.53Mar1.30Apr1.13May0.91Ju

43、ne0.83july0.91Aug1.69Sept2.44Oct2.63Nov2.67Dec2.77Page 14T.Bill rates1月-592.82Feb2.70Mar2.80Apr2.95May2.84June3.21july3.20Aug3.38Sept4.04Oct4.05Nov4.15Dec4.491月-604.35Feb3.96Mar3.31Apr3.23May3.29June2.46july2.30Aug2.30Sept2.48Oct2.30Nov2.37Dec2.251月-612.24Feb2.42Mar2.39Apr2.29May2.29June2.33july2.24

44、Aug2.39Sept2.28Oct2.30Nov2.48Dec2.601月-622.72Feb2.73Mar2.72Apr2.73May2.69June2.73july2.92Aug2.82Sept2.78Oct2.74Nov2.83Dec2.871月-632.91Feb2.92Mar2.89Apr2.90Page 15T.Bill ratesMay2.93June2.99july3.18Aug3.32Sept3.38Oct3.45Nov3.52Dec3.521月-643.52Feb3.53Mar3.54Apr3.47May3.48June3.48july3.46Aug3.50Sept3.5

45、3Oct3.57Nov3.64Dec3.841月-653.81Feb3.93Mar3.93Apr3.93May3.89June3.80july3.84Aug3.84Sept3.92Oct4.03Nov4.09Dec4.381月-664.59Feb4.65Mar4.59Apr4.62May4.64June4.50july4.80Aug4.96Sept5.37Oct5.35Nov5.32Dec4.961月-674.72Feb4.56Mar4.26Apr3.84May3.60June3.54july4.21Aug4.27Page 16T.Bill ratesSept4.42Oct4.56Nov4.7

46、3Dec4.971月-685.00Feb4.98Mar5.17Apr5.38May5.66June5.52july5.31Aug5.09Sept5.19Oct5.35Nov5.45Dec5.961月-696.14Feb6.12Mar6.02Apr6.11May6.04June6.44july7.00Aug6.98Sept7.09Oct7.00Nov7.24Dec7.821月-707.87Feb7.13Mar6.63Apr6.51May6.84June6.68july6.45Aug6.41Sept6.12Oct5.91Nov5.28Dec4.871月-714.44Feb3.70Mar3.38Ap

47、r3.86May4.14June4.75july5.40Aug4.94Sept4.69Oct4.46Nov4.22Dec4.01Page 17T.Bill rates1月-723.38Feb3.20Mar3.73Apr3.71May3.69June3.91july3.98Aug4.02Sept4.66Oct4.74Nov4.78Dec5.071月-735.41Feb5.60Mar6.09Apr6.26May6.36June7.19july8.01Aug8.67Sept8.29Oct7.22Nov7.83Dec7.451月-747.77Feb7.12Mar7.96Apr8.33May8.23Ju

48、ne7.90july7.55Aug8.96Sept8.06Oct7.46Nov7.47Dec7.151月-756.26Feb5.50Mar5.49Apr5.61May5.23June5.34july6.13Aug6.44Sept6.42Oct5.96Nov5.48Dec5.441月-764.87Feb4.88Mar5.00Apr4.86Page 18T.Bill ratesMay5.20June5.41july5.23Aug5.14Sept5.08Oct4.92Nov4.75Dec4.351月-774.62Feb4.67Mar4.60Apr4.54May4.96June5.02july5.19

49、Aug5.49Sept5.81Oct6.16Nov6.10Dec6.071月-786.44Feb6.45Mar6.29Apr6.29May6.41June6.73july7.01Aug7.08Sept7.85Oct7.99Nov8.64Dec9.081月-799.35Feb9.32Mar9.48Apr9.46May9.61June9.06july9.24Aug9.52Sept10.26Oct11.70Nov11.79Dec12.041月-8012.00Feb12.86Mar15.20Apr13.20May8.58June7.07july8.06Aug9.13Page 19T.Bill rate

50、sSept10.27Oct11.62Nov13.73Dec15.491月-8115.02Feb14.79Mar13.36Apr13.69May16.30June14.73july14.95Aug15.51Sept14.70Oct13.54Nov10.86Dec10.851月-8212.28Feb13.48Mar12.68Apr12.70May12.09June12.47july11.35Aug8.68Sept7.92Oct7.71Nov8.07Dec7.941月-837.86Feb8.11Mar8.35Apr8.21May8.19June8.79july9.08Aug9.34Sept9.00O