贝恩咨询方法ProfitPools解析.pptx

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1、1AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways第1页/共31页2ProfitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustrysvaluechainPatternofprofitconcentrationinanindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration(seeexample)Forexample,profitsandreven

2、uesintheautomotiveindustrycanbedividedamongmanyvaluechainactivities-vehiclemanufacturing,newandusedcarsales,gasolineretailing,insurance,after-salesserviceandparts,andleasefinancing-althoughcarmanufacturinganddealersaccountforalmost60%ofindustryrevenue-autoleasingandfinancingareby farthemostprofitabl

3、ebusinessesWhat are Profit Pools?Profit pools answer the question:“Where and how is money being made?”Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第2页/共31页3What is Profit?Accountingprofit-representscompanysearningsasformallyreported-mostcommonlyusedasthebasicprof

4、itmeasure-examplesincludenetincomeorearningspersharecalculationsReturnoninvestment-representscompanysearningsaftertakingintoaccountthecostofcapitalinvestedinthebusiness.Twocommonlyusedmeasuresinclude:-ROC,accountingbasedReturnonCapital(bookvalue)-ROIC,accountingbasedReturnonInvestedCapital(bookvalue

5、)Cash-flowcontribution-companysearningsbeforetakingfixed-assetandcapitalcostsintoaccount(e.g.EBITDA)-representstheamountofcashleftfromasaleaftersubtractingthevariablecostsassociatedwiththatsale-usedasabasisfordecision-makinginmature,highfixedcostandcyclicalindustriesProfit can be defined in one of t

6、hree ways:Be aware of differences in accounting standards when evaluating companies with profits spanning different industriesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第3页/共31页4Revenue vs.Profit SplitTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyC

7、hassisManufacturingandSalesTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesRevenueSplitbyActivityProfitSplitbyActivity$3,865MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%PercentofTotalSource:PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFi

8、nancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis(7/96);Bainestimates The pattern of profit concentration in the truck manufacturing industry is very different from the pattern of revenue concentration.Truck Manufacturing Business Example第4页/共31页5Why Use Profit Pools?OfferaviewoftheunderlyingindustrystructureHelpillust

9、ratetheeconomicandcompetitiveforcesdrivingtheindustrysprofitdistributionOfferadifferentperspectiveonanindustryIllustraterelationshipbetweenprofitandrevenuesHighlightspotentialwatchouts(chokepointsinthevaluechain)whichcaninfluencetheprofitflowinanindustryIllustrate the Current State of the IndustryPr

10、ovide a Competitive Advantage to Your ClientHelp to Develop Innovative Strategies HelpcompaniesseewhattheirrivalsdontseeFosterthepotentialtodictatethetermsofcompetitionwithintheindustryKeepcompaniesabreastofchangesinrapidlychanging(turbulent)industries-alertpotentialshiftsinprofitdistributionalongth

11、evaluechain-illustratepotentialchangeinprofitsourcesfromnewentrantsHelpguideimportantdecisionsaboutacompanysoperationandstrategyEncouragerethinkingolddecisionsandpursuingcounterintuitiveinitiativestocreateandcontrolprofitpoolsReducethepossibilityofblindspotsinacompanysstrategicvision-reducepotential

12、tooverlookattractiveprofitbuildingopportunities-lessonpotentialtobecometrappedinareasofweak/fadingprofitabilityExampleapplicationsCompanies that recognize the variability of profitability and can exploit the deepest pools will earn superior returns.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June199

13、8):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第5页/共31页6How Profit Pools Illustrate the State of the IndustryThevaryingconcentrationsofprofitalongthevaluechain(knownastheshapeoftheprofitpool)reflectthecompetitivedynamicsofabusiness-profitconcentrationsresultfromtheactionsandinteractionsofcompaniesandcustomers-profi

14、tpoolsforminareaswherebarrierstocompetitionexist-profitpoolsexistinareasthathavebeenoverlookedbycompetitorsEverymarkethasanunevendistributionofprofitbetweenproductcategories,customergroups,geographicregionsand/ordistributionchannelsProfitpoolsarenotstagnant-aspowershiftsamongtheplayersinanindustry(c

15、ompetitors,suppliers,andcustomers),thestructureoftheprofitpoolchangesThere are many different sources of profit in any businessProfit pools provide a means to evaluate the competitive dynamics of an industry.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第6页/共31页7P

16、rofit Pool Watchouts(Computer Industry Example)Examples:Be aware of“choke points”-particular business activities that control the flow of profits throughout an industry.Impact:Control of a choke point can influence the distribution of profits among competitors and more distant value-chain participan

17、tsIntelsdominanceofmicroprocessorsEstablishmentofanindustrywidestandardthatallcompaniesmustnowobeyMicrosoftsdominanceofWindowsConsolidationofcontroloverthecustomerinterface*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert

18、Micro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoftware*PeripheralsServices第7页/共31页8Micro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoft-warePeripheralsServices0%10%20%30%40%OperatingMarginShareofIndustryRevenueProfit Pool Watchouts(Computer Industry Example Con.)*includesoperatingsystemandapplicat

19、ionsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertAnalyzingtheprofitpoolhasenabledDelltobeprofitableintheleastprofitablepersonalcomputerssegment(seeexample)Although choke points exist in the computer industry,it is still possible for companies to create and

20、 leverage new profit pools within this industry.PC Industry Profit Pool100%第8页/共31页90%5%10%15%20%25%OperatingMarginThe automotive industry encompasses many value-chain activities.The most profitable areas of the car business are not the ones that generate the biggest revenues.AutomanufacturingNewcar

21、dealersUsedcardealersAutoloansLeasingGasolineAutoinsuranceServicerepairAftermarketpartsAutorentalShareofIndustryRevenue100%U.S.Auto Industry Example第9页/共31页10Key Questions to Help Develop Innovative StrategiesWhyhaveprofitpoolsformedwheretheyhave?Aretheforcesthatcreatedthosepoolslikelytochange?Willn

22、ew,moreprofitablebusinessmodelsemerge?Howdosomeprofitsourcesexertinfluenceoverothersandshapecompetition?Howdowegainadisproportionateshareofindustryprofits?Building an understanding of profit pools puts strategic thinking on a firm footing and prompts the following questions:Source:ProfitPools:AFresh

23、LookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第10页/共31页11AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways第11页/共31页12Applications(1 of 2)AnalyzingprofitpoolsallowedU-Haultoidentifyalargeuntappedsourceofprofitinthelowmargintruckrentalbusiness-seizedthefirstmovera

24、dvantageandenteredaccessorybusinessatalowcost-reducedprices(andprofits)incoretruckrentalbusinesstoattractcustomersforhighermarginaccessorybusinessInanticipationofapotentialreconfigurationoftheprofitpoolfrompharmacy-benefitmanagers(PBM),MerckandothersverticallyintegratedthevaluechainandacquiredPBMs-i

25、nsulatedthemselvesfromnewentrantsandprotectedtheirexistingsourcesofprofits-gainedgreateraccesstopatientinformation-increasedthelikelihoodthatthepoolwouldevolveinabeneficialratherthandestructivewayCompanies can use their understanding of profit pools in different ways:Identify New Sources of ProfitCh

26、art Acquisition and Expansion StrategiesExamplesSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第12页/共31页13Applications(2 of 2)DellComputerCorp.utilizestheprofitpoolapproachtoevaluatewhichcustomerstopursueandwhichchannelstouse-directsalesapproachallowsDelltokeepapor

27、tionofdealersprofitsforitselfandtosharetherestwithcustomersthroughlowerprices-regularresegmentationofcustomerbaseenablesthemtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomersandreactquicklytonewsourcesofprofitAfterrecognizingthattheindustrysprofitpoolwasdrivenbythepremiumbeersegments,AnheuserBushrefocusedtheirstr

28、ategytoexpandtheirshareofthepremiumsegment-gaineddominanceofthepremiumsegmentthroughincreasedmarketingofpremiumbrandsandbymanagingthepricedifferentialsbetweenpremiumanddiscountbrands-verticalintegrationintocanproductionraisedcompetitivebarriersaroundthepoolbycuttingmanufacturinganddistributioncostDe

29、velop Distribution StrategyGuide Pricing,Product and Operating DecisionsThe company that sees what others do not will be best prepared to capture a disproportionate share of industry profitsSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第13页/共31页14AgendaProfitPools

30、ConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways第14页/共31页15Mapping a Profit PoolMapping a profit pool involves four steps.Define the PoolDetermine the Size of the PoolEstimate the Distribution of ProfitsReconcile the EstimatesTasks:Identifywhichvaluechainactivitiesinfluencetheindustrysabi

31、litytogeneratecurrentandfutureprofitsDevelopabaselineestimateoftheprofitsgeneratedbyallprofitpoolactivitieswithinthevaluechainDeterminetheprofitsgeneratedbyeachactivitywithinthevaluechainComparetheresultsofstep2and3,andreconcilethenumbersListofvaluechainactivitiesinprofitpool(insequentialorder)Estim

32、ateoftotalprofitpools(maybearange)PointestimatesofprofitforeachvaluechainactivityFinalestimatesofactivityandtotalpoolprofitsOutput:Step 1:Step 2:Step 3:Step 4:Source:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第15页/共31页16Guidelines(Defining the Pool)Defining the pool in

33、volves identifying value chain activities relevant to the business.Takeabroadviewofthevaluechain-lookbeyondtraditionalindustrydefinitionsExaminetheindustryfrom3perspectives-client-competitors-customersTalktoindustryplayersandanalysistouncoverneworemergingbusinessmodelsDontdisaggregateactivitiesmoret

34、hannecessaryConsiderparallelsfromotherindustries-arethereactivitiesthatcouldsubstituteforactivitiesinthisindustry?The way you define your profit pool is unlikely to coincide with any traditional industry definitionSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第16页/

35、共31页17Guidelines(Determining the Size of the Pool)Determining the size of the pool involves developing a rough,but accurate baseline estimate based on the available data.TaketheeasiestanalyticalroutesavailableFocusonthelargestcomponentsfirst-largecompanies8startwiththebiggestplayerswhoaccountforalar

36、geportionoftheindustrysprofits8gaugetheprofitsofthesmallerplayersbyadjustingtheleadersmarginstoaccountforthesmallerplayerscompetitiveadvantagesordisadvantages8addtheprofitstogether-highvolumeproductsConsiderbuildingestimatesusingtwodifferentmethodologies(panylevelvs.productlevel)soyoucancompareanswe

37、rstoseeifyouareintheballparkrangeSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第17页/共31页18Guidelines(Estimating the Distribution of Profits)Estimating the profits for each value chain involves creative thinking.Gowherethedatais(e.g.products,customers,channels,compa

38、nies,orregions,etc.)-useproxiesifrelevantdataisunavailablePrioritizefocus-lookatclienteconomics,thenlargepureplayers,largemixedplayers,thenasampleofsmallerplayers-usethe80/20rule-inmostcases20%ofthecompaniesconstitute80%oftherevenuesShiftbetweenaggregationanddisaggregationinanalysis-aggregations-use

39、inindustrieswheremostoftheplayersfocusononevaluechainactivity“Pureplayers”-disaggregation-youwillneedtodisaggregatecompanysfinancialdataiftheindustrysplayersareverticallyintegrated“mixedplayers”Source:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第18页/共31页19Guidelines(Rec

40、onciling the Estimates)Developing final estimates of activity and total profits can be an iterative process.Comparetheestimateoftotalprofitpools(top-downapproach)withestimatescalculatedforeachvaluechainactivity(bottoms-upapproach)CheckassumptionsandcalculationsifthenumbersdontaddupCollectadditionald

41、ataifnecessaryResolveinconsistenciesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustrysProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert第19页/共31页20AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways第20页/共31页21Truck Manufacturing Business ExampleActivities:Performed By:Providepartsfortruckchass

42、isandbodyPerformpreventativeandemergencyserviceontruckchassisandbodyBuildtruckbodytocustomerspecsPreparebodyforandmanageassemblyprocessSellbodytocustomerDeliverintegratedunittocustomerOfferfundsasloansfortruckpurchaseArrangeloanandleasetransactionsSellchassisto/takeorderfromcustomerManageconnectiono

43、fchassisandTEM*BuildtruckchassisaccordingtocustomerspecsCollectcomponentsfrommanufacturersChassismanufacturerChassisdealerIndependentgarageorpartsstoreTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassismanufacturerChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,Salesan

44、dAssemblyParts&ServiceRetailFinanceNotes:*TruckEquipmentManufacturersThe first step was to define the pool by identifying the value chain activities relevant to the business.Severe Service Value Chain(Defining the Pool)第21页/共31页22OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMack$500-700MM0%20%40%60%80%

45、100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevere Service Vehicle Profit Pool(Determining the Size of the Pool)Source:BainanalysisEstimatedprofitsfromtop5companiesbasedon10KsandannualreportsPerformed80/20analysistodeterminetotalprofitpool-assumed20%ofthecompaniesconstituted80%oftheprofits-estimatedprofit

46、sofremaining20smallercompaniesRealitycheckedestimateswithroughindustrycalculations-Estimatedtotalprofitpoolaround$500-$700MMbasedon:8$3.9Bindustryrevenues8assumedaveragegrossmarginsof13%-18%MethodologyTruck Manufacturing Business ExampleA rough estimate of the total profit pool was built using overa

47、ll profit estimates from the top 5 competitors.第22页/共31页23Note:OperatingMarginusedasthemeasureofprofitabilitySource:CompanyFinancials;AnalystsReports;CompanyInterviewsTotalIndustryMcNeilusHeilLeachKnapheideOmaha Vactor Ottawa Advance RestofIndustry7.1%12.0%9.0%9.0%8.6%8.2%6.6%5.8%3.0%3.9%0%3%5%8%10%

48、13%OperatingMarginsforBodyCompaniesProfit estimates were generated for each activity based on the operating margins of the top industry players.Truck Manufacturing Business ExampleExample Activity:Body ManufacturingBody Company Margins(Determining the Distribution of Profits for an Activity within a

49、 Value Chain)第23页/共31页24OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackTruckFinanceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyPartsandServiceChassisManufacturingandSalesTopDownBottomsUp$500-$700MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevere Service Vehicle Profit Pool(Reconciling the Estima

50、tes)Source:BainanalysisChassis+Parts&Services+BodyManufacturing+FinancetherangeapproximatedinthetopdownapproachFinalestimatesforeachvaluechainactivityiswithintherangeofouroriginaltotalprofitpoolestimateTruck Manufacturing Business ExampleTotal profit estimates from the top down approach were compare