从美国次贷危机到全球金融风暴(1).ppt

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1、from USA Subprime Mortgage Crisis toGlobal Financial Storm耿峰耿峰 EmailEmail：华尔街冲击破华尔街冲击破Wall Street Impactn n股市股市n nStock market Stock market n n汇市汇市n nforeign exchange foreign exchange market market n n房市房市n nHousing marketHousing marketn n实业实业n nindustryindustryEarthquake:Earthquake:The worst econom

2、ic The worst economic crisis Since 1929 crisis Since 1929 George.W.BushGeorge.W.BushThe top five U.S.investment banksn n 高盛高盛(Goldman(Goldman SachspuorgSachspuorg Inc.)1869 Inc.)1869年创立于纽约，是全球年创立于纽约，是全球历史最悠久、经验最丰富、实力最雄厚的投资银行之一历史最悠久、经验最丰富、实力最雄厚的投资银行之一n n摩根士丹利（摩根士丹利（Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley）是一家成立于

3、美国纽约的国）是一家成立于美国纽约的国际金融服务公司，提供包括证券、资产管理、企业合并重际金融服务公司，提供包括证券、资产管理、企业合并重组和信用卡等多种金融服务组和信用卡等多种金融服务n n美林证券（美林证券（Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch）是世界领先的财务管理和顾问）是世界领先的财务管理和顾问公司之一，总部位于美国纽约。世界的最大的金融管理咨公司之一，总部位于美国纽约。世界的最大的金融管理咨询公司之一，创办于询公司之一，创办于 1914 1914 年年1 1月月7 7日日n n雷曼兄弟公司是为全球公司、机构、政府和投资者的金融雷曼兄弟公司是为全球公司、机构、政府和投

4、资者的金融需求提供服务的一家全方位、多元化投资银行。雷曼兄弟需求提供服务的一家全方位、多元化投资银行。雷曼兄弟公司自公司自18501850年创立年创立n n贝尔斯登公司贝尔斯登公司(Bear Stearns Cos.)(Bear Stearns Cos.)成立于成立于19231923年，总部位于年，总部位于纽约，是美国华尔街第五大投资银行，系全球纽约，是美国华尔街第五大投资银行，系全球500 500 强企业强企业之一之一n nIn March this In March this year,Bear year,Bear Stearns was Stearns was purchased by

5、JP purchased by JP Morgan Chase Morgan Chase at an extremely at an extremely low pricelow priceSeptember 15,the September 15,the fourth-largest U.S.fourth-largest U.S.securities company securities company Lehman Brothers Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.filed Holdings Inc.filed for bankruptcy for bankru

6、ptcy protection,this protection,this means that the 158-means that the 158-year old investment year old investment bank in the survival bank in the survival of Wall Street will of Wall Street will come to an e to an end.n nthe 94-year-olds third-largest U.S.investment bank Merrill Lynch was purchase

7、d by Bank of America at 44,000,000,000 U.S.dollarsn n美国最大储蓄银行倒闭美国最大储蓄银行倒闭美国最大储蓄银行倒闭美国最大储蓄银行倒闭 营收营收营收营收约为农行七成半约为农行七成半约为农行七成半约为农行七成半n nThe nations largest savings bank The nations largest savings bank failures revenue of about 75 failures revenue of about 75 ABCABCn n Washington Mutual Bank was Washin

8、gton Mutual Bank was taken over by the U.S.Federal taken over by the U.S.Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Deposit Insurance Corporation on the 25th,making the collapse on the 25th,making the collapse of the largest savings bank in the of the largest savings bank in the history of the United Sta

9、tes.history of the United States.Founded in 1889,the Founded in 1889,the Washington Mutual Bank is the Washington Mutual Bank is the nations largest savings bank.nations largest savings bank.n n因不堪次贷危机的重负，终因不堪次贷危机的重负，终于在其成立于在其成立119119周年纪念日这周年纪念日这天成为美国历史上最大规模天成为美国历史上最大规模储蓄银行倒闭案的主角。储蓄银行倒闭案的主角。危机促成有美国特

10、色的社会主义危机促成有美国特色的社会主义危机促成有美国特色的社会主义危机促成有美国特色的社会主义Socialism with Socialism with characteristics of the characteristics of the United StatesUnited States 美国财政部长鲍尔森和联邦住房金融美国财政部长鲍尔森和联邦住房金融美国财政部长鲍尔森和联邦住房金融美国财政部长鲍尔森和联邦住房金融局局局局Federal Housing Finance Agency Federal Housing Finance Agency take ontake on局长洛克哈

11、局长洛克哈局长洛克哈局长洛克哈特周日在新闻发布会上特周日在新闻发布会上特周日在新闻发布会上特周日在新闻发布会上Bloomberg/Bloomberg/LandovLandovFBI said to probe Fannie,Freddie,Lehman,AIG n nFBI said to probe troubled firms like Fannie,Freddie,Lehman,AIG for fraud n n2008年 9月 24日 IMF：Global Financial Stability Reportn n美国金融损失将超1.4万亿美元n nU.S.financial loss

12、es exceed 1,400,000,000,000 U.S.dollarsn n2008年10月8日The impact on Chinan n中国工商银行中国工商银行ICBCICBC（包括境外机构）持有美国雷（包括境外机构）持有美国雷曼兄弟公司债券及与雷曼信用相挂钩债券余额共曼兄弟公司债券及与雷曼信用相挂钩债券余额共1.5181.518亿美元亿美元 n n招商银行昨日发布公告表示，该行持有美国雷曼招商银行昨日发布公告表示，该行持有美国雷曼兄弟公司发行的债券敞口共计兄弟公司发行的债券敞口共计70007000万美元，其中万美元，其中高级债券高级债券60006000万美元，次级债券万美元，次级

13、债券10001000万美元万美元 n n中行中行BANK OF CHINABANK OF CHINA被曝持被曝持50005000万美元雷曼债权万美元雷曼债权n n华安基金华安基金QDIIQDII陷雷曼破产危机陷雷曼破产危机 或面临清盘风险或面临清盘风险QDII(qualified domestic institutional investor)n n冰岛是遭受金融危机打击最严重的欧洲国家之冰岛是遭受金融危机打击最严重的欧洲国家之一。金融业不成比例的快速发展导致这个只有一。金融业不成比例的快速发展导致这个只有3232万人口的国家陷入困境万人口的国家陷入困境n n截至到截至到6 6月月3030日，

14、冰岛三大银行的资产规模总计日，冰岛三大银行的资产规模总计达到达到14.414.4万亿冰岛克朗，约合万亿冰岛克朗，约合12801280亿美元。近亿美元。近1010多年来，冰岛外债超过多年来，冰岛外债超过13831383亿美元，但国内生亿美元，但国内生产总值仅为产总值仅为193.7193.7亿美元亿美元 n nBloomberg pointed out that Icelands Bloomberg pointed out that Icelands bank debt has climbed to about 12 times bank debt has climbed to about 12

15、times of the countrys economy.of the countrys economy.n nBy June 30,the total asset size of By June 30,the total asset size of Icelands three major banks has reached Icelands three major banks has reached 14,400,000,000,000 ISK,or about 14,400,000,000,000 ISK,or about 128,000,000,000 U.S.dollars.128

16、,000,000,000 U.S.dollars.n nOver the past 10 years,Iceland foreign Over the past 10 years,Iceland foreign debt has been more than debt has been more than 138,300,000,000 U.S.dollars,but GDP 138,300,000,000 U.S.dollars,but GDP was only 19,370,000,000 U.S.dollars.was only 19,370,000,000 U.S.dollars.冰岛

17、破产冰岛破产Iceland Bankruptcy股市汇市双双雪崩股市汇市双双雪崩股市汇市双双雪崩股市汇市双双雪崩 警报！韩国恐成警报！韩国恐成警报！韩国恐成警报！韩国恐成“亚洲冰岛亚洲冰岛亚洲冰岛亚洲冰岛”South Korea fear an Iceland AsiaSouth Korea fear an Iceland Asia n n被认为可能成为被认为可能成为“亚洲冰岛亚洲冰岛”的韩国股汇的韩国股汇市场连续下挫。韩国股市连续两天的跌幅市场连续下挫。韩国股市连续两天的跌幅达到达到9.4%9.4%和和2.7%2.7%。1010月月1616日，韩国首尔股日，韩国首尔股市综合指数收于市综合指数

18、收于1213.781213.78点，较前一个交易点，较前一个交易日下跌日下跌126.50126.50点，创历史最大单日跌幅。点，创历史最大单日跌幅。韩元对美元则重挫韩元对美元则重挫9.7%9.7%。创近。创近1111年之最年之最 。n n Having been regarded as a“Iceland Asia,”Having been regarded as a“Iceland Asia,”South Koreas stock and foreign exchange South Koreas stock and foreign exchange markets fell in a ro

19、w.markets fell in a row.n nSouth Korean stock market for two South Korean stock market for two consecutive days of decline to reach 9.4 percent consecutive days of decline to reach 9.4 percent and 2.7 percent.October 16,the Seoul stock and 2.7 percent.October 16,the Seoul stock market index closed a

20、t 1213.78 points over the market index closed at 1213.78 points over the previous trading dayprevious trading day，down 126.50 points,hit down 126.50 points,hit the biggest one-day decline.the biggest one-day decline.n nWon against the U.S.dollar was down 9.7 Won against the U.S.dollar was down 9.7 p

21、ercent.Hit most of the past 11 years.percent.Hit most of the past 11 years.Oxford hit by 30m Icelandic cash Oxford hit by 30m Icelandic cash freeze freeze Daily TelegraphDaily Telegraphn nOxford University faces Oxford University faces losses of up to 30 millionlosses of up to 30 million after after

22、 becoming the latest public body to admit it had money trapped in becoming the latest public body to admit it had money trapped in failed Icelandic banks.failed Icelandic banks.n nThe size of Oxfords stranded deposits eclipses those of other The size of Oxfords stranded deposits eclipses those of ot

23、her universities-including universities-including Cambridge,Manchester and the Open Cambridge,Manchester and the Open UniversityUniversity-which have also been blocked from accessing funds.-which have also been blocked from accessing funds.n nHospitals,charities,police forces and around 100 local co

24、uncils are Hospitals,charities,police forces and around 100 local councils are currently facing a cash crisis after investing in Icelands troubled currently facing a cash crisis after investing in Icelands troubled financial institutions.financial institutions.n n金融风暴刮跑好莱坞财源金融风暴刮跑好莱坞财源金融风暴刮跑好莱坞财源金融风

25、暴刮跑好莱坞财源 梦工梦工梦工梦工场面临融资困境场面临融资困境场面临融资困境场面临融资困境n n n n20082008年年1010月月1616日日 新浪财经新浪财经n ndream works is facing financial dream works is facing financial difficulties difficulties October 16,2008 October 16,2008 SinaSina Finance Finance A variety of commercial banks A variety of commercial banks used to

26、 be Hollywoods cash used to be Hollywoods cash dispenser,almost every company dispenser,almost every company has maintained long-term financing has maintained long-term financing and cooperative relations with one and cooperative relations with one or more large banks.However,the or more large banks

27、.However,the financial turmoil has not only made financial turmoil has not only made the film investment banks can not the film investment banks can not afford,but also even result into afford,but also even result into bankruptcy situation.bankruptcy situation.Hollywood DreamWorksDreamWorksThe Summi

28、t adopted the euro area to deal with the The Summit adopted the euro area to deal with the financial crisis in the Plan of Actionfinancial crisis in the Plan of Actionn nAt the summit of October 12 At the summit of October 12 in Parisin Paris，15 leaders of the 15 leaders of the countries in the euro

29、 zone countries in the euro zone adopted an action plan to adopted an action plan to deal with common current deal with common current financial crisis.financial crisis.n n 德国政府将最多提供德国政府将最多提供50005000亿欧元亿欧元(约合约合68106810亿美元亿美元)的贷款担保和资金，法国的贷款担保和资金，法国政府将推出一项政府将推出一项36003600亿欧元亿欧元(约合约合49104910亿亿美元美元)的融资计划

30、，西班牙政府计划将的融资计划，西班牙政府计划将于今年向最多于今年向最多10001000亿欧元的银行债务提亿欧元的银行债务提供担保，并批准政府收购需要资金的银供担保，并批准政府收购需要资金的银行的股份。此外，英国政府则将向苏格行的股份。此外，英国政府则将向苏格兰皇家银行兰皇家银行(RBS)(RBS)、HBOSHBOS及劳埃德及劳埃德TSBTSB银行总共注资银行总共注资370370亿英镑亿英镑(约合约合630630亿美亿美元元)。德国德国5000亿欧元救市亿欧元救市n nDas Rettungspaket der Bundesregierung hat ein Gesamtvolumen Das

31、Rettungspaket der Bundesregierung hat ein Gesamtvolumen von knapp von knapp 500 Milliarden Euro500 Milliarden Euro.n nEs besteht aus zwei Elementen:Erstens garantiert die Regierung Es besteht aus zwei Elementen:Erstens garantiert die Regierung fr Kredite,die Banken einander geben.Zweitens bietet sie

32、 dem fr Kredite,die Banken einander geben.Zweitens bietet sie dem Finanzsektor konkrete Hilfen in Form von Kapitalspritzen an.Finanzsektor konkrete Hilfen in Form von Kapitalspritzen an.n nBundestag und Bundesrat hatten dem Paket am Freitag Bundestag und Bundesrat hatten dem Paket am Freitag zugesti

33、mmt.zugestimmt.n nPolitiker der Opposition hatten gefordert,notleidenden Banken Politiker der Opposition hatten gefordert,notleidenden Banken nicht bedingungslos Geld zu geben,sondern diese zu nicht bedingungslos Geld zu geben,sondern diese zu verstaatlichen.verstaatlichen.n n Deutsche Deutsche Well

34、eWelleIndia central bank to cut interest ratesn nOctober 3,U.S.President October 3,U.S.President George W.Bush in George W.Bush in Washington signed a Washington signed a modified large-scale financial modified large-scale financial aid program.aid program.October 3,the U.S.House October 3,the U.S.H

35、ouse of Representatives Speaker of Representatives Speaker Pelosi(second from left)Pelosi(second from left)displayed the signed financial displayed the signed financial aid program:2008 Bill of aid program:2008 Bill of emergency economic emergency economic stabilitystabilityn n1010月月3 3日，美国国会众议日，美国国

36、会众议院议长佩洛西（左二）展院议长佩洛西（左二）展示已签署的金融救援方案：示已签署的金融救援方案：20082008年紧急经济稳定法年紧急经济稳定法案案n n美欧再度联手罕见救市 全球股市井喷n n2008年10月14日 07:16 新浪财经n n全球股市在各国联手救市的激励下井喷。美全球股市在各国联手救市的激励下井喷。美国三大股指涨幅全部超过国三大股指涨幅全部超过11%11%，道指单日上涨点，道指单日上涨点数创历史新高，欧洲德国数创历史新高，欧洲德国DAX30DAX30种股价指数、法种股价指数、法CAC40CAC40指数、欧洲指数、欧洲Stoxx50Stoxx50指数暴涨超指数暴涨超11%11

37、%，香港，香港股市飙升逾股市飙升逾10%10%n nn nIMF：n nNone financial institution collapse of any developed countriesn nWallstreet Journal China edition:n n你是世界180多个国库的守护神，不是发达国家的看门狗信用风险剧增信用风险剧增 外贸企业胆寒外贸企业胆寒n nThe two carriagesThe two carriages：n n美国国际贸易模式：美国国际贸易模式：n nleave GDPleave GDP，take Intereststake Interestsn n

38、进口进口-消费消费-贸易赤字贸易赤字-外国投资外国投资-金融市场上涨金融市场上涨-收入增加收入增加-再投再投资资n n中国国际贸易模式中国国际贸易模式n n出口出口-外汇储备外汇储备-再投资再投资-出口出口n n买保险买保险n n及时了解客户及其关联银行资及时了解客户及其关联银行资金状况金状况n n争取本地船上交货价交易方式争取本地船上交货价交易方式（FOBFOB）n n争取不以美元结算争取不以美元结算China to rescue the marketn n杭州杭州2424条条 南京南京2020条条n n住房和城建部：住房和城建部：n n逾八成网友反对房地逾八成网友反对房地产救市产救市n n

39、楼价未到非救不可的楼价未到非救不可的地步地步n n救楼市救楼市=救房价和救开救房价和救开发商？发商？n n不让救市不让救市=不让卖地？不让卖地？Hu jintao responds to rescuing the market n nIt was the best of times,it was the worst of It was the best of times,it was the worst of times,ittimes,it was the age of wisdom,was the age of wisdom,it was the age of foolishness,it

40、 was the epoch of belief,it was the epoch of it was the age of foolishness,it was the epoch of belief,it was the epoch of incredulity,it was the season of Light,it was the season of Darkness,it was incredulity,it was the season of Light,it was the season of Darkness,it was the spring of hope,it was

41、the winter of despair,we had everything before the spring of hope,it was the winter of despair,we had everything before us,we had nothing before us,we were all going direct to Heaven,we were us,we had nothing before us,we were all going direct to Heaven,we were all going direct the other way.all goi

42、ng direct the other way.n n Charles Dickens A Tale of Two Cities Charles Dickens A Tale of Two Cities n n这是一个最好的时代，这是一个最坏的时代；这是一个最好的时代，这是一个最坏的时代；n n这是一个智慧的年代，这是一个愚蠢的年代；这是一个智慧的年代，这是一个愚蠢的年代；n n这是一个光明的季节，这是一个黑暗的季节；这是一个光明的季节，这是一个黑暗的季节；n n这是希望之春，这是失望之冬；这是希望之春，这是失望之冬；n n人们面前应有尽有，人们面前一无所有；人们面前应有尽有，人们面前一无所有

43、；n n人们正踏上天堂之路，人们正走向地狱之门。人们正踏上天堂之路，人们正走向地狱之门。n n 查理狄更斯查理狄更斯双城记双城记 To deal with the crisisn nThe only thing we have to fear is fear itself,nameless,The only thing we have to fear is fear itself,nameless,unreasoning,unjustified terror which paralyses needed unreasoning,unjustified terror which paralyse

44、s needed efforts to convert retreat into advanceefforts to convert retreat into advancen n_富兰克林富兰克林 罗斯福罗斯福Franklin RooseveltFranklin Rooseveltn nIm buying the U.S.Im buying the U.S.n n别人贪婪的时候你要恐惧，别人恐惧的时候你要别人贪婪的时候你要恐惧，别人恐惧的时候你要贪婪贪婪n n_巴菲特巴菲特BuffettBuffettn n如同各国一起在酒桌喝酒，谁相信美国的话，留如同各国一起在酒桌喝酒，谁相信美国的话，留到最后谁买单。美国老大不会买单到最后谁买单。美国老大不会买单