Kantar-东南亚快速消费品通货膨胀行动手册（英）-2022-11正式版.pdf

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1、1Inflation South-East Asia Playbook ReportKANTAR Worldpanel AsiaWorldpanel AsiaFMCG Inflation in South-East Asia PlaybookFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia2How should FMCG brands react to South-East Asias rising inflation?3.5%4.9%5.2%Inflation presents huge challenges

2、for brands,but they need to be aware that shoppers,categories and markets are responding differently to the pressure of rising prices.Kantar Worldpanel Asia explains.O C TOB ER 2022Inflation is rising in South-East Asia and shoppers are starting to notice the impact on their shopping bills,and react

3、.Were already seeing changes in behaviour across the region as shoppers,and particularly those on low incomes,adapt to increased pressure on their incomes.The good news for SEA is that the anticipated rise in inflation wont be as extreme as whats being seen in Europe,but it will still have a signifi

4、cant impact.The latest predictions from the IMF are that global inflation will rise to 8.3%by the end of the year compared with more than 10%in the UK.VietnamThailandPhilippinesFactors all exacerbated by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.The reasons for the rising prices are pretty similar aro

5、und the world:The post-Covid recoveryIncreasing energy costsStaff shortages and supply chain issuesOverall inflation numbers,however,hide a much more granular picture for South East Asia that means the shopper response varies by market,by category and by cohorts.And its only by understanding the tre

6、nds at a much more detailed level that brands can identify the best ways to respond.There is no one silver bullet that brands can apply across all markets,categories,and shoppers.FMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia3How SEA shoppers react to inflationMany brands are alre

7、ady seeing the impact or considering their response.Recent work in Asia by Kantar Worldpanel revealed that a move to more planned purchasing was having an impact on impulse purchases,a sector already hit by reduced time in store thanks to Covid,while some marketers were excited by the opportunity fo

8、r innovation under pressure and the need to deliver a more rounded brand experience.We think there are three factors that marketers will want to consider as they develop their strategies:Changes in shopping baskets,channels,and brands:Shoppers,of course,will have different strategies when it comes t

9、o coping with rising prices.They can buy less or buy bigger packs for key products;they can switch retail channels;or they can trade down,switching to private labels or non-branded options,for example.Figure 1.Shoppers response to inflationSource:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Household Panel,2022Change in

10、category spend(+/-ve)Repeat buyer behavior Population changeBuy less/more volumeSwitch channelsBuy cheaper productsIncrease/reduce overall category volume boughtIncrease/reduce repertoire of segmentIncrease/Reduce Promotional relianceSwitching brands,non branded,PLProduct Mix(sectors,pack sizes)Infl

11、ation exposureFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia4As price gaps shrink,premium brands can gain:Inflation can also encourage people to trade up.If mainstream or value brands have to raise prices because margins are smaller and production cost increases will have to be pa

12、ssed on whilst premium brands remain at the same price,the price gap between value and premium brands shrinks.This allows shoppers to consider premium options.Thailand,for example,has already seen a shift away from cheaper stores.Keep more stock for essential products during shopping season:Behaviou

13、rs can also change around key celebration events.Vietnams lunar new year in January,for example,saw a rise in channel mix and branded purchases across key urban cities,followed by a significant reduction in both after the event.Market,category and shopper understanding First of all,lets examine the

14、variation by market.Headline inflation varies from 2.3%in Peninsular Malaysia to 7.1%in Thailand(as of May 2022).In some markets the take-home FMCG inflation rate average price per volume is higher than the headline rate,hitting 8%in rural Vietnam compared to an overall rate of 2.9%,for example.Figu

15、re 2.Rolling contribution to total FMCG grocery spend change in Vietnam(Urban 4)Source:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Household Panel,Vietnam Urban 4 key cities,2022Rolling Contribution to Total FMCG Grocery Spend Change-Vietnam Urban 4-5%-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%10%-1-0,500,511,52Spend Change Billio

16、ns VNDPopulation SizeInflation contributionto Grocery SpendchangeProduct Mix incl PL/brandedBuy less/moreVolumeStore MixPromo MixInflation%Lunar NYLunar NYLunar NYLunar NYFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia5The result is that in some markets FMCG volume growth is slowin

17、g down to 2.7%in Vietnam(Urban 4 Key Cities).The variation by market is also exacerbated by the fact that local regulations may inhibit price rises.The pressure on shoppers in Thailand for instance has been eased thanks to an extension of price caps on 46 basic food and consumer products including i

18、nstant noodles,until June 2023.Then lets look by category.Prices are rising differently in different categories and in different markets.Vietnams urban population has seen a 27%rise in the price of sugar compared to a 5%rise in the price of hair conditioners,with purchases of hair conditioners reduc

19、ed or altered.In Thailand,the price of cooking oil is up 22%while liquid detergent is up 9%.How much demand for each category will be affected by inflation will depend on whether its classed as an essential need or a nice want.The former might include necessity categories like cooking oil and eggs f

20、or,while the latter could include indulgent or occasional treats like hair conditioner.In Thailand,for example,cooking oil is considered an essential for in-home cooking.Even though the category has seen some of the highest inflation levels,of over 20%,shopper spend has remained in positive growth.T

21、his is mainly due to the impact of inflation,indicating that shoppers have in general absorbed the price increases.Only in the most recent period have we started to see evidence of people buying less.Figure 3.Inflation of key categories in Vietnam Urban 4 Key Cities and Thailand Source:Kantar Worldp

22、anel Asia,Household Panel,Vietnam Urban 4 key cities&National Thailand,March 20222.5%0.8%4.5%1.7%Vietnam RuralPeninsular MalaysiaIndonesiaPhilippinesSugar Sugar+27%+27%Hair Conditioner Hair Conditioner+5%+5%Cooking Oil Cooking Oil+22%+22%Liquid Detergent Liquid Detergent+9%+9%ThailandThailandVietnam

23、 Urban 4 Key CitiesVietnam Urban 4 Key CitiesFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia6Meanwhile in Vietnams four key urban cities(Ho Chi Minh,Ha Noi,Da Nang and Can Tho)we can see that since the final quarter of 2021 shoppers have been reacting to price increases by buying l

24、ess,and also changing their product mix choice for instance buying cheaper items.It is also worth considering whats typically bought together,because if the price of one item in a certain store goes up,it may be that other items that are typically selected for the same basket whatever their category

25、 are altered or ditched to cover the additional cost.Figure 4.Rolling contribution to cooking oil spend change National Thailand Source:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Household Panel,Thailand,March 2022Figure 5.Rolling contribution to hair conditioner spend change Vietnam Urban 4 Key Cities Source:Kantar Wo

26、rldpanel Asia,Household Panel,Vietnam Urban 4 cities,March 2022Rolling Contribution to Cooking Oil Spend Change-National ThailandRolling Contribution to Hair Conditioner Spend Change-Vietnam Urban 4 Key Cities0%5%10%15%20%25%-0,3-0,2-0,100,10,20,30,40,50,60,7Spend Change Billions THBPopulation SizeI

27、nflation contribution toGrocery Spend changeProduct Mix incl PL/brandedBuy less/more VolumeStore MixPromo MixInflation%FMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia7Figure 6.Essential Needs and Nice Wants baskets Source:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Household PanelHow lower-income house

28、holds react to inflation And then lets examine the socio-economic response.In many markets in South-East Asia,low-income households make up a substantial element of the population.In the Philippines,for example,they account for 87%of the total population,contributing to an average FMCG spend per tri

29、p of just$1.80 in 2021.In Indonesia and India,the figure is$1.10 excluding fresh foods.Figure 7.Take-home FMCG spend per trip of low-income households Source:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Anticipating Inflation in 2022 and Beyond,2022ASIA-Take Home FMGC Spend per Trip(USD)of Low Income HouseholdsEssential“

30、Need”basketsI need to stock up on a few essential things”Nice“Want”baskets“Occasional treat or more indulgent items”1,0 1,1 1,9 2,3 2,4 3,6 6,5 8,3 12,1 12,7 1,1 1,11,8 2,6 2,8 3,9 6,89,2 11,6 13,7 IndonesiaIndiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam(R)Vietnam(U)Pen.MalaysiaKoreaChinese Mainland TaiwanFY2020FY2

31、02134%51%87%Low IncomePopulation289154318171108127102598478FY2021 Frequency within low income HHFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia8For many such shoppers,income comes in daily and shopping is based around buying small amounts from traditional neighbourhood stores,a sin

32、gle cigarette for example.Many brands have responded with a sachet-based offer,allowing shoppers to buy small quantities more often,combining affordability with accessibility via convenient general trade outlets.Brands such as detergent brand Wings,dishwasher brand MAXGLOW and instant noodle brand P

33、ayless have all thrived with these shopper groups,gaining double-digit spend growth by delivering value for money.By contrast,the pressure on wealthier groups is very different and hence their shopping habits are affected differently.While low-income shoppers in the Philippines keep rationalising sp

34、ending 48%of FMCG categories have declined continuously in the past two years among this cohort 33%of categories among middle-income shoppers recovered in 2021.Among the more affluent shoppers,the picture is different again with spending potentially being allocated beyond FMCG,and 41%of categories a

35、re seeing a normalising trend.This latter cohort is also boosting their basket by buying more categories,rising from 65 to 66 between 2019 and 2021,while the low-income group has cut back to 52.Figure 8.Philippines-%Take Home FMCG by SEC cohortsSource:Kantar Worldpanel Asia,Anticipating Inflation in

36、 2022 and Beyond,2022Philippines-%Take Home FMCG by SEC cohorts12%12%15%13%22%24%33%14%14%16%13%41%51%48%39%32%National PhilippinesLow SEC(83%)Mid SEC(13%)High SEC(4%)Decline in 2020&2021Growth in 2020&Decline in 2021Decline in 2020&Growth in 2021Growth in 2020&2021CAGRFY2019-FY2021-4.1%-3.3%-0.7%-3

37、.8%Average number of categories bought(2019 2021)54 5263 60 65 66Normalizing and starting to allocate spend beyond FMCGRecovering and coming back to spend nowContinue struggling and rationalizing spendFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia9Selecting the right path Faced wi

38、th this combination of factors,brands need to consider five options for boosting performance in an inflation-driven market:Increase list price:Brands need to understand what impact price has on sales and how much more shoppers might be willing to pay before they embark on this journey.Clearly margin

39、s are more generous for premium items so perhaps those could more easily absorb production cost increases.Analysis of the customer base for each and every SKU(and in particular the percentage of low-income shoppers)will help marketers understand price sensitivity and plan accordingly.Brands that do

40、go down this path will also need to justify rises to shoppers.They should have a ready explanation for the increase in order to avoid any suggestion of profiteering.Change product mix:Every brand has a mix of margins and offers in its portfolio.Dove in India,for example,has a selection of pack sizes

41、 ranging from sachets to bottles designed to offer a laddering solution for every single shopper group.The challenge for marketers here is to assess how they can maximise the distribution of higher-priced products,as accessibility is critical when meeting the needs of shoppers who use smaller genera

42、l trade as their daily shop.Reduce price promotion:Price promotions are a staple of marketing but they are also costly for brands.Reducing the scale and frequency of promotions may allow them to cover increases in production costs.By carefully analysing which promotions actually boost sales growth a

43、nd,more importantly,add incremental sales,marketers can be much more targeted in how and where they run promotions.Innovate:Understanding how offering new product benefits would allow a brand to justify or encourage shoppers to accept a price premium is an essential route to innovation.Researching t

44、he unmet needs and developing niches in the category will allow marketers to identify growth opportunities and boost share of the basket.9FMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOK KANTAR Worldpanel Asia10Reduce pack size:Cash-strapped shoppers may still want a taste of the brand,but they may not be

45、 able to afford the existing product.Keeping them in the brand family will also enable their consumption to be increased back to previous levels once the inflation crisis is passed.To identify the scale of this opportunity marketers need to know how pack size impacts both consumption rates and longe

46、r-term sales and if smaller packs will increase or decrease brand loyalty.Skippy Peanut Butter introduced an 18g sachet to improve its availability in proximity stores in the Philippines and boost accessibility among its target group.Understanding which option is the best for any given brand or mark

47、et means having the insights needed to assess all of the factors that are acting to encourage or discourage cash-strapped shoppers from selecting a brand.Only when marketers have the full picture will they be able to truly know how to drive growth during times of higher inflation.About KantarKantar

48、is the worlds leading marketing data and analytics company.We have a complete,unique and rounded understanding of how people think,feel and act;globally and locally in over 90 markets.By combining the deep expertise of our people,our data resources and benchmarks,and our innovative analytics and tec

49、hnology,we help our clients understand people and inspire growth.Worldpanel by KantarExperts in understanding global shopper and consumer behaviour,to inspire brand growth.We provide continuous shopper monitoring and advanced analytics to inform your retail and marketing strategies,enabling you to make smarter decisions,to shape a better world for Nelson Woo Senior Director,Commercial,Asia,Kantar Worldpanel Asia AuthorsKacey Lim Regional Account Manager,Asia,Kantar WorldpanelFMCG INFLATION IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA PLAYBOOKWorldpanel Asia