统筹培训教材.ppt

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1、1,PRODUCTION PLANNERTraining生產計劃員培訓,ADM,2,Content內容,Introduction介紹Organization組織Job Description Quality品質工作內容說明Job Description Cost成本工作內容說明Job Description Delivery交期工作內容說明Job Description Safety安全工作內容說明 Performance Measurement表現量度,3,Introduction介紹,4,Global Objective全球化目標,重組 ADM機構以支援未來發展和為 WCM的推行打下基礎.

2、Restructure ADM organization to support future growth and lay the foundation for WCM implementation,5,Training Objetive培訓,Introduce the concepts, relationships and basic tools required to hold Production Planner position into a business unit organization 介紹概念,相互關係及基本所需的工具以支持商業單位架構中生產計劃員的地位,6,A World

3、 Class Company世界級管理公司,The term World Class Manufacturing Company is used to describe the best manufacturing companies in the world. 世界級制造公司的條件是用於描述世界上最好的制造公司Generally includes:一般包含A new approach to product quality. 一個新的產品品質演進Just in Time production techniques.即時生產技術Change in the way the work force i

4、s managed. 改變職工的管理方式A flexible approach to customer requirements. 靈活性的達成客的需求,7,World Class Manufacturing世界級製造商,Education and Training,ERP,TQM,LPS,應用商業聚合系統來聯繫人員與制程.,世界級製造商元素是:,進行在職教育與培訓.,持續改善公司的所有工作.,通過革新產品及優質服務來開發公司的競爭優勢.,8,ERP (Enterprise Resources Planning) 企業了資源計畫,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,ERP,

5、9,Total Quality Management 全面品質管理,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,TQM,10,LPS (Lean Production System)精簡生產系統,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,LPS,11,CHANGE IS A CHALLENGE變更是一項挑戰,CHANGE變更 is a matter of common interest and survival. 是關係到共同利益與生存的,12,CHANGE IS A CHALLENGE 變更是一項挑戰,Our background and p

6、arameters have changed and we MUST be ready to satisfy the demands of our customers. 我們所處的時代與條件已改變，我們必須有充分的準備去滿足客戶的需求。,13,STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS成功之策略,All successfull Companies have simple lines of command that: 所有成功的公司都有簡明的要求用於Promote team work 促進團隊精神Define responsibilities and scopes 界定職責與範疇Assign

7、specific activities for the personnel. 委派明確的活動給予職員,14,STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS成功之策略,We all know that it might be difficult to change, because old habits and beliefs could hold us back, but. 我們都知道變更是痛苦的，因為舊習慣和信仰令人們躊躇，但是.,This IS the time to realize that theres always a better way of doing things.現在是領悟到

8、每一件事永遠都有更好的方法去做的時候了,15,Organization組織,16,2nd Level Organization第二階層的組織,17,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Die CastingBU Manager,Industrial Eng & Cont Improv Mgr,QualityManager,Operations Director,Engineering Director,Materials Director

9、,Human Resources Director,Finance Director,Managing Director,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,PlasticsBU Manager,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Punch PressBU Manager,Prod

10、uction Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Garment CareBU Manager,Production Supervisor,Programmer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Food PreparationBU Manager,Production Supervisor,Pr

11、ogrammer,Quality Enginneer,Product Enginneer,Cont Improv Enginneer,Manufacturing Enginneer,Toaster OvensBU Manager,Operations Organizations ChartQueretaro,18,Die CastingBU Manager,Operations Director,Materials Director,Managing Director,PlasticsBU Manager,Punch PressBU Manager,Garment CareBU Manager

12、,Food PreparationBU Manager,Toaster OvensBU Manager,Supporting Departments Functional StructureQueretaro,Industrial Eng & Cont Improv Mgr,Finance Director,Human Resources Director,QualityManager,Engineering Director,19,The ERP System 企業資源計劃系統,20,The ERP System企業資源計劃系統,Materials management物料管理Forecas

13、ting訂單預測Master Planning總排期MRP物料需求計劃Capacity Management產能管理Inventory Management庫存管理Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理及採購JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造Quality品質,21,Forecasting定單預測,Factors influencing demand影響需求的因素Basic demand patterns基本需求模式 Basic principles of forecasting預測的基本原則Principles of data collectio

14、n資料收集原則Basic forecasting techniques基本預測技巧Seasonality季節性Sources and types of forecast error 預測誤差的來源及類型,22,Planning and Control Hierarchy計劃及管理層次,At each level, there are three questions:在每一個階段都有三個問題 What are the priorities?甚是優先 What capacity is available?有甚產能？ How can differences be resolved?如何解決差距,23

15、,Factors Influencing Demand 影響需求的因素,General business and economic conditions一般商業及經濟條件Competitive factors競爭因素Market trends市場趨式Firms own plans公司內部計劃 _ _,24,Sources of Demand需求的來源,All sources of demand must be identified 所有需求的來源必須是確認的Customers客Spare parts配件Promotion推廣Intracompany企業之間Other其他,25,Characte

16、ristics of Demand 需求的特性,26,Demand Patterns需求型態,Stable versus dynamic穩定對比動態Stable demand retains same general shape over time穩定的需求會逐漸行成一個趨勢Dynamic demand tends to be erratic 動態的需求往往是不穩定的,27,Demand Patterns需求形態,Dependent versus independent非獨立對比與獨立Only independent demand needs to be forecast只有獨立需求需要去預測

17、Dependent demand should never be forecast非獨立性需求不需要預測,28,What Should Be Forecast? 什麼需要預測,29,Principles of Forecasting預測的原則,Forecasts預測Are almost always wrong錯誤是經常發生的Should include an estimate of error 應該包含預估的誤差Are more accurate for groups of products對產品系列來說應該比較準確Are more accurate for nearer periods o

18、f time時間越近應該也越準確,30,Data Preparation and Collection數據準備及收集,Record data in terms needed for the forecast記錄預測所需的資料Record circumstances relating to the data紀錄收集資料時的環境Record demand separately for different customer groups對不同的客戶分別記錄其需求,31,Qualitative Techniques量化方法,Are based on intuition and informed opi

19、nion是根據直覺及聽到的意見Tend to be subjective趨向主觀Are used for business planning and forecasting for new products 是用於商業計劃及新產品預測Are used for medium-term to long-term forecasting是用於中期及長期預測,32,Quantitative Techniques量化方法,Based on historical data usually available in the company 是基於公司通常可利用的歷史資料Assume future will

20、repeat past 假設未來也會再發生,33,Extrinsic Techniques外存方法,Based on external indicators是根據外在的指標Useful in forecasting total company demand or demand for families of products用於預測公司的總需求和產品系列需求,34,Intrinsic Quantitative Techniques內存量化方法,35,Moving Averages移動平均數,Forecast sales as an average of past months 以過去數月的平均

21、數當作是銷售預測An average of the past 3 months:前三個月的平均數If January sales are 90, forecast for February: 如果一月份銷售額是90,二月的預測是:,36,Moving Average Forecasting 移動平均數預測,It can be used to filter out random variation用於過濾隨機的變化Longer periods smooth out random variation長期消除隨機的變化If a trend exists, it is hard to detect 比

22、較難偵測趨勢走向Calculations can be cumbersome when dealing with more periods 當面對較多的時段,計算變得比較困難,37,Problem問題,Graph the demand using next slide data 利用下一頁資料將需求做成圖表What is your best guess for demand for month 7? 七月最好的預測需求是什麼?,週期,需 求,38,Problem問題,月份,需求,三個月合計,下月預測,39,Problem (solution)問題(答案),40,Exponential Smoo

23、thing指數調平法,Provides a routine method of updating item forecasts提供定時更新預測的方法Works well for stable items對穩定的產品十分有效Is satisfactory for short-range forecasts對短期的預測效果較好Detects trends, but lags them 能夠偵測趨勢走向,但是會落後於趨勢,41,Seasonality季節性,Measures the amount of seasonal variation of demand for a product對一個產品計算

24、其季節性需求的數量Relates the average demand in a particular period to the average demand for all periods 一個特別時段的平均需求和整個時段的平均需求比較,季節性指數,季度平均銷售,全部季度的平均銷售,42,Developing SeasonalSales Indexes草擬季節性銷售指數,QuarterAverage Quarterly Sales/100Seasonal Index1128/100=1.282102/100=1.02375/100=0.75495/100=0.95 Total=4.00,銷

25、售資料,年,季度,合計,平均,全部季度平均銷售,單位,季節性指數,平均每季銷售,季,43,Seasonal Sales季節性銷售,全部季度的平均銷售量,季度銷量,時間,銷量,44,Tracking the Forecast預測跟蹤,Forecasts are almost always wrong Why track the forecast? 預測通常是錯誤的,為什麼要跟蹤預測To plan around the error in the future以現時誤差的幅度來調節預測To measure actual demand versus forecasts量度實際的需求對比於預測To im

26、prove our forecasting methods 改進我們的預測方法,45,Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起,Bias: Cumulative sales may not be the same as forecast偏差:累計銷售額可能和預測並不相同,Bias exists since the cumulative variation is not zero 偏差的存在是因為累計變化並非為零,月份,預測,實際,變化,46,Forecasts Can Be Wrong in Two Ways預測誤差可由兩方面引起,Random

27、 variation:Sales will vary plus and minus about the average銷售一般在平均值的上或下變動,There is no bias, but there is random variation each month即使沒有偏差,每個月都會有隨機變化,月份,預測,實際,變化,47,The ERP System企業資源計劃系統,Materials management物料管理Forecasting定單預測Master Planning總排期MRP物料需求計畫Capacity Management產能管理Inventory Management庫存管

28、理Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理和採購JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造Quality品質,48,Master Planning總排期,Level production plan for make-to-stock products平衡按倉存生產的生產計劃Relationship of resource requirements planning to production planning 資源需求計劃對生產計劃的相互關係Purpose of a master production schedule (MPS) and relations

29、hip to the production plan總生產排期的作用以及和生產計劃的關係MPS and rough-cut capacity plan 總生產排期和粗略產能計畫Relationship of the MPS to sales and the ability to promise delivery 總生產排期和銷售以及承諾交貨期的能力之間的相互關係,49,Planning and Control計劃及控制,At each level we must answer these questions: 在每個層次我們必須回答這些問題What are the demand priorit

30、ies? 什麼是需求優先順序?What capacity is required? 需要什麼樣的產能?What capacity is available? 有多少產能可以運用?,商業計劃,生產計劃,總生產排期,物料需求計劃,生產控制活動與採購,計劃,執行,50,Making the Production Plan 擬定生產計畫,Definition:定義.setting the overall levels of manufacturing output.決定整體的生產量. APICS Dictionary 字典Production planning is concerned with生產計

31、劃是針對Planning for each product group每個產品系列的計畫Meeting desired inventory levels符合庫存水平需求 Determining resources needed決定所需要的資源Comparing with available resources和可利用的資源比較,51,Typical Characteristics典型的特徵,12-month time horizon 十二個月的時間圖 Fluctuating or seasonal demand 變動和季節性需求 Plan made for product families 以

32、產品系列作計畫 Variety of management objectives 管理目標的變化,52,Developing a Production Plan 發展生產計畫,Three basic strategies can be used: 有三個基本策略可以運用Match/chase配合/追趕Level平均分配Combination/hybrid結合/混合,53,Chase Strategy追趕策略,生產銷售,54,Chase Strategy追趕策略,Advantages:優點Stable inventory庫存穩定Varied production to meet sales re

33、quirements 各樣的生產符合銷售需求Disadvantages:缺點Costs of hiring, training, overtime, and extra shifts人工,培訓,加班,額外的班次工作成本Costs of layoffs and impact on employee morale 解雇以及影響雇員士氣的成本Possible unavailability of needed work skills 可能得不到所需要的工作技能Maximum capacity needed需要最大的產能,55,Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略,56,

34、Level Production Strategy 平均分佈生產策略,Advantage:優點Smooth, level production avoids costs of demand matching 穩定平均的生產可避免需求匹配而產生的成本Disadvantage:缺點Buildup of inventory增加庫存,57,Combination Strategy混合式策略,58,Combination Strategy混合式策略,Produces at or close to full capacity for some part of the cycle 部份零件在某個週期時段會以

35、最大或接近最大產能生產Produces at a lower rate (or does not produce) during the rest of the cycle 在其餘的時段生產量較低（或停產）Makes use of available capacity, yet limits inventory buildup and inventory carrying costs 儘量利用產能,但限制庫存增長,庫存會帶來成本增加,59,Make-to-Stock Production Plan按庫存生產計劃,Goods are put into inventory and sold fro

36、m inventory將成品入庫存而後由庫存進行銷售Used when:在下述狀況下採用 Demand is constant and predictable 穩定且可預期的需求狀況 Only a few product options exist 只有幾種產品可以選擇 Delivery times are shorter than time needed to make the product 交貨期小於產品制造期,60,Make-to-Stock Production Plan按庫存計劃生產,Information needed所需的資訊Forecast by time period fo

37、r the planning horizon在計劃時間範圍內以時間階段做預測Opening inventory開始庫存Desired ending inventory最終所需庫存,61,Level Production Plan平均分佈生產,例子 :開始結存= 50 單位最終結存 = 40 單位,每週期生產數量 = 單位,第1週期之最後結存 =開始倉存 + 生產數量 - 需求預測=_ + _ _=_ 單位,生產所需總數 =總預測需求 + 最終結存 - 開始倉存 =_ + _ _ = _ 單位,62,Level Production Plan平均分佈生產 (solution) (答案),例子 :

38、開始結存= 50 單位最終結存 = 40 單位,每週期生產數量 = 單位,第1週期之最後結存 =開始倉存 + 生產數量 - 需求預測=50 + 58 55=53 單位,生產所需總數 =總預測需求 + 最終結存 - 開始倉存 = 300 + 40 50 = 290 單位,290,= 58,63,Problem問題,Opening inventory開始庫存 = 400 unitsProduction生產量 =1,300 unitsDemand需求量 =1,100 unitsEnding inventory = opening inventory + production demand 最終庫存開

39、始庫存生產量需求What will the ending inventory be?最終庫存將會是多少？,64,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Opening inventory開始庫存 = 400 unitsProduction生產量 =1,300 unitsDemand 需求量 =1,100 unitsEnding inventory = opening inventory + production demand 最終庫存開始庫存生產量需求量400 + 1,300 1,100 = 600 units,65,Problem問題,Opening inventory 開始倉存

40、= 250 units,A production line is to run at 500 units per month. Opening inventoryIs 250 units, and sales are forecast as shown. Calculate the expectedPlanned inventory for each month.一條生產線每月可以生產500個單位產品，初始庫存量是250,預測銷售在表格中己顯示出,請計算每一個月的計劃庫存數,66,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Opening inventory 開始倉存 = 250 un

41、its,67,Problem問題,A company wants to develop a level production plan for a family ofProducts. The opening inventory is 200 units, and an increase to 260Units is expected by the end of the plan. The demand for each periodIs given below. How much should the company produce each period,And what will be

42、the ending inventory in each period?一間公司要對產品系列設立平均生產計劃,初始庫存是200,計劃結束時會增加到260,每一個時段的需求己經列明,那麼每個週期應生產多少?每個週期的最終庫存又是多少?Total planned production 總計劃生產數Period production 週期生產數,68,Problem (solution) 問題(答案),Total planned production 總計劃生產量 = 1,440 + 260 200 = 1,500 unitsPeriod production 平均週期生產量= 1,500 / 6

43、= 250 units,69,Chase Strategy追趕策略,Produce exactly what is needed each period 每週期只生產所需要的數量Example:舉例,Cost of plan: $20 per unit to change production leve l計劃費用：改變生產水平每單元需20元Changing production level改變生產水平=50 x $20=$1,000Inventory carrying cost庫存運作成本= 0Total cost of the plan總計劃成本=$1,000,70,Subcontract

44、ing外發,Advantages:優點No excess capacity沒有多餘產能Level production 平均分佈生產Disadvantage:缺點Costs of subcontracting 外發成本,Meet demand by subcontracting以外發生產方式以達到客戶需求,71,Resouce Requirements Planning資源需求計劃,Production plan must be compared with existing resources生產計劃一定要和現有的資源比較 Are required resources available? 所

45、需的資源是否足夠? If not, how will differences be reconciled?如果不足,如何解決這問題?,72,Bill of Resources資源清單,Shows the quantity of critical resources needed to make one “average” unit of the product group 列出主要資源數量去計算產品類型的平均單位,73,The ERP System企業資源計劃,Materials management物料管理Forecasting定單預測Master Planning總排期MRP物料需求計畫Capacity Management產能管理Inventory Management庫存管理Quality Management & Purchasing 品質管理和採購JIT Manufacturing即時生產製造Quality品質,