通胀飙升美债利率还能维持低位吗.docx

《通胀飙升美债利率还能维持低位吗.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《通胀飙升美债利率还能维持低位吗.docx（38页珍藏版）》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、I美国通胀持续飙升，再超预期7月13日，美国劳工部公布数据显示，美国6月CPI同比增5.4%，创2008年8月 以来新高-核心CPI同比增4.5%，创1991年11月以来新高。7月14日数据显示，美 国6月PPI同比增长7.3%，大超市场预期。美国6月未季调CPI同比增长5.4%,预期 增长4.9%,前值增长5.0%；未季调核心CPI同比增长4.5%,预期增长4.0%,前值增长 3.8%O季调后CPI环比增长0.9%,预期增长0.5%,前值增长0.6%；季调后核心CPI环 比增长0.9%,预期增长0.4%,前值增长0.7%。6月CPI数据全面超出市场预期，其中 CPI同比增幅创近十三年来新高，

2、核心CPI同比增幅创近三十年来新高。6月PPI同比增 长7.3%,预期增长6.7%,前值增长6.6%；核心PPI同比增5.6%,预期增5.1%,前值 增4.8%o CPI和PPI数据共同显示美国通胀水平持续飙升保持高位。图1： CPI与核心CPI同比走势（%）资料来源：Wind,CPI:季调:环比 核心CPI:季调:环比图2： CPI与核心CPI环比走势（）资料来源：Wind,从更加关键的CPI分项来看，能源项和交通运输项依然是CPI分项中保持悬高增速 的工程，住宅项增速依然维持高位。综合同比和季调环比数据分析，6月CPI增速最高的 仍是能源项和交通运输项。其中，能源项同比增长24.5%,季调

3、环比增加1.5%；交通运 输项同比增长21.5%,季调环比增加3.6%,继续维持快速增长势头。根据美国劳动部数 据，从细项来看，6月二手车和卡车价格上涨10.5%,创有史以来最大月增幅，贡献了 6 月美国CPI涨幅的1/3。汽油、燃油、商品和新车的同比增速也均高于2%0此外，住宅 项在美国CPI组成中权重占比约1/3,本月同比增速达3.1%,创2017年5月以来新高。表1 ：美国6月CPI分项变化（）同比季调环比2021-052021-062021-052021-06能源28.5024.500.001.50食品2.202.400.400.80食品与饮料2.102.400.400.80住宅2.9

4、03.100.400.40服装5.604.901.200.70交通运输20.0021.502.103.60支上涨，5支横盘，224支下跌。其中国微转债（44.00%）、盛路转债（40.19%）和隆利 转债（16.55%）领涨，百川转债（-12.19%）、星源转2 （-9.90%）和蓝盾转债（-8.94%） 领跌。366支可转债正股，93支上涨，7支横盘，266支下跌。其中隆利科技（20.00%）、 华海药业（9.99%）和运达股份（7.95%）领涨，星源材质（13.81%）、科华生物（-9.97%） 和小康股份（-9.34%）领跌。可转债市场周观点上周转债市场仍然围绕着成长主线交易，内部结构分

5、化依然明显，但是赚钱效应不俗。 市场风格的选择是近期参与市场的主要胜负手。近期市场波动虽高，我们在近期的周报策略中提示不要对抗波动而是去拥抱波动，波 动背后也会带来较高的收益。周五全面降准之后预计成长风格会继续演绎，但政策超预期 的背后那么是坐实了经济修复较为缓慢的判断。随着通胀回落，市场进入流动性充裕但是盈 利下滑的组合，这一宏观背景下我们建议重点配置在下半年景气度有望持续维持在高位的 板块，制造业仍旧是主要的配置方向。转债层面那么建议维持高弹性的组合来获取最正确的持 仓效率。随着通胀开始回落，顺周期板块的超额收益也接近尾声，周期已非市场未来的主要配 置方向，仅建议保存少局部需求景气持续、供

6、给端约束较强的板块个券。前期我们已经建议增加在消费方向的布局力度，这一局部仓位可以填补局部回落的周 期仓位。随着经济增长动能的回落，近期调整颇多的消费板块可能会再次展现出稳健的特 性，可以逐步增加关注。从业绩成长性的角度出发，我们在过去数周周报重反复建议从本钱叠加需求的角度关 注到高端制造业板块。当下全球疫情的结构性不均衡可能会进一步提升制造业的盈利弹性， 海外局部开展中国家的疫情控制效果远弱于兴旺国家，会冲击这些经济体在全球产业链分工 中的地位，而作为“全球工厂”的中国制造业可能会迎来更多的转移需求，主要逻辑方向建 议从国产替代与技术升级两大角度去考察，重点关注军工、半导体、汽车零部件、新能

7、源、 TMT、医药工业等板块。我们重申即使这一方向出现波动那么是提供了进一步参与的机会。高弹性组合建议重点关注东财转3、精达转债、彤程转债、金诚转债、奥佳转债、火 炬转债、嘉元转债、恩捷转债、比音（仙乐）转债、长汽转债。稳健弹性组合建议关注苏银转债、捷捷（石英）转债、海澜转债、三花（骆驼）转债、 旺能转债、斯莱转债、永冠转债、美诺转债、运达（天能）转债、凤21转债。风险因素市场流动性大幅波动，宏观经济增速不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正股股价超预 期波动。I股票市场表1:市场概况代码简称收盘价日变化（）成交额（亿）000001.SH上证指数3,528.50-1.075,077.16399001

8、.SZ深证成指15,056.32-0.887,073.55399300.SZ沪深3005,083.08-1.153,725.68399005.SZ中小板指9,759.70-1.351,060.56399006.SZ创业板指3,488.63-0.752,734.65000016.SH上证503,339.38-1.54947.23表2：行业涨跌幅榜每日涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）医药（中信）1.01汽车（中信）-3.77石油石化（中信）0.80有色金属（中信）-3.32煤炭（中信）0.63国防军工（中信）-2.15纺织服装（中信）0.32电力设备及新能源（中信）-1.99食

9、品饮料（中信）0.07非银行金融（中信）-1.76资料来源：表3：规模风格指数涨跌幅名称日涨跌幅（）名称日涨跌幅（）大盘价值-1.73大盘成长-0.58中盘价值-0.83中盘成长-0.93小盘价值-0.40小盘成长-0.93资料来源：I转债市场表4：可转债市场资料来源:名称收盘价日变化（）中证转债指数391.24-0.33等权可转债指数1,601.10-0.94可转债预案指数1,334.68-1.05表5：可转债个券涨跌幅情况名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）127038.SZ国微转债144.0044.00366.18128041 .SZ盛路转债405.0040.193,808.90

10、123074.SZ隆利转债150.0016.555,802.74123013.SZ横河转债429.5016.083,610.08128070.SZ智能转债123.009.24906.47113580.SH康隆转债268.188.18587.83123018.SZ溢利转债238.508.16652.73名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）110044.SH广电转债264.477.892,094.43113504.SH艾华转债168.967.72269.26123034.SZ通光转债193.407.441,450.92123014.SZ凯发转债145.007.01392.37123012.

11、SZ万顺转债144.206.59473.20128079.SZ英联转债143.265.77300.53123072.SZ乐歌转债140.005.75571.91113526.SH联泰转债277.655.29380.56127004.SZ模塑转债180.004.90549.57127031.SZ洋丰转债126.504.33350.23128103.SZ同德转债172.804.27517.98113047.SHN旗滨转192.214.19311.71123065.SZ宝莱转债116.004.17147.61128113.SZ比音转债179.393.99146.52123079.SZ运达转债147.

12、003.96416.55113575.SH东时转债137.133.93245.02128057.SZ博彦转债130.503.82270.03128053.SZ尚荣转债133.853.49142.24128140.SZ润建转债116.283.27119.03123038.SZ联得转债124.903.10164.10127037.SZ银轮转债130.503.08416.62128091.SZ新天转债126.302.97259.52123022.SZ长信转债151.902.95430.19128051.SZ光华转债151.802.94644.83128036.SZ金农转债122.862.5763.4

13、8128026.SZ众兴转债129.002.541,821.94123093.SZ金陵转债124.252.4580.25123042.SZ银河转债152.002.32596.72123052.SZ飞鹿转债130.852.2977.08123025.SZ精测转债146.002.25700.43128025.SZ特一转债117.812.22611.18128073.SZ哈尔转债113.852.2246.12123045.SZ雷迪转债122.002.0962.14113527.SH维格转债269.012.091,929.45128096.SZ奥瑞转债126.252.0517.83110076.SH华

14、海转债110.071.66225.39123068.SZ弘信转债129.111.65513.47127022.SZ恒逸转债130.481.6235.51123043.SZ正元转债170.991.601,573.55113545.SH金能转债174.511.6068.90113582.SH火炬转债313.371.52288.45113608.SH威派转债116.291.4454.71110033.SH国贸转债120.021.3793.29128111.SZ中矿转债440.991.331,758.98名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113574.SH华体转债109.391.295.52

15、128094.SZ星帅转债126.291.2729.55128135.SZ洽洽转债115.501.2716.53123050.SZ聚飞转债120.601.1852.00123007.SZ道氏转债205.901.183,480.09128133.SZ奇正转债112.621.16153.90128056.SZ今飞转债112.701.098.94113618.SH美诺转债128.541.0974.46127025.SZ冀东转债108.101.0316.59128128.SZ齐翔转2165.000.99207.77113597.SH佳力转债113.080.99339.67128106.SZ华统转债11

16、2.250.978.26123096.SZ思创转债113.210.94118.71127016.SZ鲁泰转债101.800.912.46113576.SH起步转债92.270.9023.29110062.SH烽火转债109.830.8928.50123027.SZ蓝晓转债336.850.79378.41123103.SZ震安转债154.500.7878.37113588.SH润达转债107.760.7638.92123105.SZ拓尔转债118.640.7536.77128141.SZ旺能转债114.600.7581.55113502.SH嘉澳转债115.480.7088.96123010.S

17、Z博世转债104.070.6937.36113532.SH海环转债102.350.695.05123091.SZ长海转债131.500.6527.83128072.SZ翔鹭转债103.120.6444.02128030.SZ天康转债201.780.6454.63127015.SZ希望转债108.520.618.29113525.SH台华转债120.550.6170.05110071.SH湖盐转债111.000.6023.22113603.SH东缆转债118.870.5913.92127012.SZ招路转债108.350.5421.24113014.SH林洋转债117.170.53121.161

18、28029.SZ太阳转债167.700.5231.59113615.SH金诚转债160.280.5070.42127021.SZ特发转2106.600.5015.46113566.SH翔港转债110.770.493.97113595.SH花王转债86.270.496.13123117.SZ健帆转债125.510.4992.74110075.SH南航转债121.600.4839.23128116.SZ瑞达转债102.510.4718.61113569.SH科达转债99.150.442.42128105.SZ长集转债111.200.4358.66113585.SH寿仙转债139.530.4273.

19、57名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）128021.SZ兄弟转债106.180.425.89123030.SZ九洲转债251.000.405,476.44128123.SZ国光转债103.900.371.29123049.SZ维尔转债110.900.3623.19110058.SH永鼎转债107.550.3413.75113614.SH健20转债122.550.322.65110048.SH福能转债145.000.3279.29128134.SZ鸿路转债130.400.3136.39113027.SH华锌转债104.570.2930.52127018.SZ本钢转债101.600.29

20、93.13113579.SH健友转债118.720.245.15110060.SH天路转债113.140.229.90113516.SH苏农转债109.510.226.94128083.SZ新北转债105.100.204.43128050.SZ钧达转债160.200.20268.73113535.SH大业转债103.700.1913.09110057.SH现代转债111.730.1813.56113584.SH家悦转债99.350.162.45113622.SH杭叉转债113.720.151.96128119.SZ龙大转债119.930.154.50128118.SZ瀛通转债105.650.1

21、45.01113623.SHN凤21转141.790.1459.41127027.SZ靖远转债101.700.1461.76113599.SH嘉友转债110.200.143.57128121.SZ宏川转债113.800.1311.00128142.SZ新乳转债119.320.132.11113036.SH宁建转债101.240.133.52128081.SZ海亮转债114.000.1379.67113026.SH核能转债106.130.1122.63110061.SH川投转债134.960.1042.80110064.SH建工转债99.430.106.06128042.SZ凯中转债110.12

22、0.103.73123085.SZ万顺转2118.100.0834.50123090.SZ三诺转债120.600.081.86128143.SZ锋龙转债113.890.0812.28127019.SZ国城转债91.500.0714.08123056.SZ雪榕转债105.780.0710.48123108.SZ乐普转2126.260.0661.29128062.SZ亚药转债80.320.0613.33113573.SH纵横转债104.960.064.85123107.SZ温氏转债107.460.0626.85128040.SZ华通转债110.270.0515.82113021.SH中信转债106

23、.450.0528.34110072.SH广汇转债92.250.0337.40名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）113042.SH上银转债102.630.02197.71113017.SH吉视转债98.810.019.34110059.SH浦发转债103.470.00367.07110034.SH九州转债109.170.0017.94123073.SZ同和转债115.900.004.83113567.SH君禾转债111.410.001.84128108.SZ蓝帆转债121.000.0037.83128023.SZ亚太转债106.600.0010.39127003.SZ海印转债105.

24、600.006.82123116.SZ万兴转债126.990.0038.78113508.SH新凤转债142.31-0.01226.25113620.SH傲农转债102.19-0.015.27113043.SH财通转债108.13-0.0215.25113011.SH光大转债114.50-0.04119.91113565.SH宏辉转债108.25-0.0513.26113546.SH迪贝转债108.25-0.053.71128017.SZ金禾转债170.68-0.0574.85128138.SZ侨银转债104.05-0.058.37128129.SZ青农转债106.34-0.0616.9811

25、3044.SH大秦转债103.12-0.0690.54113541.SH荣晟转债124.72-0.066.39113601.SH塞力转债102.20-0.088.84113024.SH核建转债102.03-0.0825.61123115.SZ捷捷转债142.50-0.0860.22113037.SH紫银转债103.08-0.0938.37127006.SZ敖东转债102.20-0.0926.61128069.SZ华森转债105.32-0.0910.47127014.SZ北方转债111.22-0.107.40110047.SH山鹰转债119.59-0.1013.68123098.SZ一品转债12

26、9.29-0.1015.99110045.SH海澜转债114.85-0.1138.17113598.SH法兰转债108.85-0.133.22110063.SH鹰19转债120.31-0.1416.85128127.SZ文科转债98.02-0.1418.28110052.SH贵广转债102.28-0.158.84113624.SH正川转债103.79-0.1512.09113548.SH石英转债178.95-0.1696.64113600.SH新星转债104.82-0.1613.70123106.SZ正丹转债120.00-0.1789.51128144.SZ利民转债108.42-0.175.1

27、0110051.SH中天转债117.00-0.1717.99123104.SZ卫宁转债122.50-0.178.20128139.SZ祥鑫转债101.75-0.1810.50110055.SH伊力转债184.47-0.181,019.23名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）123011.SZ德尔转债110.00-0.1821.73127011.SZ中鼎转2133.75-0.1988.31128132.SZ交建转债96.22-0.194.20110041.SH蒙电转债107.18-0.202.80113572.SH三祥转债121.16-0.205.44123111.SZ东财转3150.6

28、0-0.20484.57127005.SZ长证转债117.00-0.2240.56113606.SH荣泰转债123.73-0.227.19113616.SH韦尔转债157.77-0.22145.68110073.SH国投转债108.07-0.2315.45128039.SZ三力转债107.00-0.246.73123031.SZ晶瑞转债394.00-0.251,672.20113563.SH柳药转债108.05-0.261.16128100.SZ搜特转债77.89-0.2615.89113589.SH天创转债94.64-0.264.26110067.SH华安转债107.56-0.2711.08

29、110056.SH亨通转债107.40-0.274.82113594.SH淳中转债110.97-0.271.18128076.SZ金轮转债106.86-0.274.63127024.SZ盈峰转债108.90-0.277.94128107.SZ交科转债109.10-0.278.83128049.SZ华源转债103.55-0.271.89127026.SZ超声转债108.70-0.2815.86128117.SZ道恩转债101.91-0.285.56113625.SH江山转债116.81-0.285.99128034.SZ江银转债105.39-0.308.78123033.SZ金力转债146.80

30、-0.30884.33123024.SZ岱勒转债113.60-0.317.82113542.SH好客转债109.56-0.3112.13111000.SH起帆转债112.04-0.3123.76123039.SZ开润转债107.32-0.311.54128044.SZ岭南转债96.32-0.327.94128015.SZ久其转债101.43-0.3313.82113561.SH正裕转债111.79-0.339.09128014.SZ永东转债107.80-0.343.61113519.SH长久转债103.61-0.351.54128063.SZ未来转债107.40-0.354.98123110.

31、SZ九典转债165.40-0.3695.87123059.SZ银信转债109.75-0.378.22113607.SH伟20转债125.11-0.3747.45128125.SZ华阳转债102.47-0.382.67128114.SZ正邦转债105.70-0.3826.72113596.SH城地转债92.07-0.386.26110043.SH无锡转债112.94-0.387.46名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）123023.SZ迪森转债101.62-0.3811.28128022.SZ众信转债104.59-0.3919.48128071 .SZ合兴转债106.77-0.403.2

32、6113030.SH东风转债112.37-0.427.84113033.SH利群转债100.67-0.4317.16110077.SH洪城转债121.03-0.4314.54110038.SH济川转债106.26-0.431.78113530.SH大丰转债103.07-0.434.03128136.SZ立讯转债119.03-0.4330.76113605.SH大参转债113.94-0.446.87113013.SH国君转债113.50-0.446.50127017.SZ万青转债113.00-0.449.44127007.SZ湖广转债101.50-0.457.98113524.SH奇精转债107

33、.61-0.496.26123053.SZ宝通转债109.00-0.495.93128109.SZ楚江转债123.00-0.5116.68123044.SZ红相转债107.53-0.527.94127013.SZ创维转债106.70-0.5310.95123078.SZ飞凯转债130.87-0.5554.32123089.SZ九洲转2146.18-0.561,174.05113505.SH杭电转债105.58-0.579.63113509.SH新泉转债220.23-0.6154.12113602.SH景20转债125.31-0.6542.42123101.SZ拓斯转债111.80-0.657.

34、37123081.SZ精研转债106.30-0.657.09123004.SZ铁汉转债102.90-0.665.96128090.SZ汽模转2112.55-0.669.25110080.SH东湖转债105.50-0.6724.04113577.SH春秋转债123.04-0.685.68123061.SZ航新转债117.88-0.6977.82123028.SZ清水转债102.70-0.706.34128131.SZ崇达转2105.80-0.702.40128120.SZ联诚转债106.90-0.753.28128130.SZ景兴转债114.69-0.779.41123063.SZ大禹转债116

35、.67-0.7716.94128048.SZ张行转债109.68-0.7830.29123048.SZ应急转债116.26-0.8010.76128037.SZ岩土转债107.83-0.8016.41123113.SZN仙乐转120.93-0.8113.39123109.SZ昌红转债117.00-0.836.62123002.SZ国祯转债110.52-0.842.32113050.SH南银转债117.68-0.84343.44128137.SZ洁美转债130.50-0.855.95123112.SZ万讯转债118.43-0.8622.36名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（百万）128087

36、.SZ孚日转债103.00-0.8619.98127033.SZ中装转2108.25-0.8873.27110068.SH龙净转债104.57-0.898.56123075.SZ贝斯转债112.30-0.8920.53127035.SZ濮耐转债109.01-0.9021.71128075.SZ远东转债124.05-0.9113.85113610.SH灵康转债111.14-0.9136.40127034.SZ绿茵转债108.10-0.9284.83128013.SZ洪涛转债107.71-0.9226.63113012.SH骆驼转债133.00-0.9735.99123076.SZ强力转债102.

37、40-0.987.27113039.SH嘉泽转债120.45-1.03125.98123062.SZ三超转债123.87-1.0565.23127030.SZ盛虹转债186.00-1.06395.84110079.SH杭银转债113.15-1.07308.35113046.SH金田转债106.42-1.0721.70123083.SZ朗新转债129.00-1.086.62123071.SZ天能转债119.00-1.0911.39127036.SZ三花转债136.00-1.0961.54127032.SZ苏行转债113.95-1.1056.65123064.SZ万孚转债115.70-1.115.

38、27128082.SZ华锋转债121.89-1.1542.85127023.SZ华菱转2136.89-1.16314.06123092.SZ天壕转债117.00-1.175.92127028.SZ英特转债108.58-1.2018.42123082.SZ北陆转债110.54-1.2015.04123067.SZ斯莱转债188.00-1.21238.62127029.SZ中钢转债166.50-1.222,400.72113570.SH百达转债107.39-1.223.49127020.SZ中金转债113.00-1.2215.58123046.SZ天铁转债240.00-1.27220.35113591.SH胜达转债104.83-1.2915.93110053.SH苏银转债121.35-1.33410.66113593.SH沪工转债109.09-1.343.97113040.SH星宇转债141.99-1.35163.26