气候风险国家概况：印度尼西亚.docx

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1、FORE/ORD iiiiiittiiitiiiitiiiititiiiiiitiiiitlIEY ESSAGES2COUNTRY OVERVIEW2C LIY6Climate Baseline6Overview6Key Trends7Climate Future8Overview8CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS 12HEATWAVeS13Drought and Fire Risk14Flood15Sea Level Rise16Cyclones18CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS18Natural Resources18Water18Fisheri

2、es and CorAL19Forests and Biodiversity20Economic Sectors20Agriculture20Urban22Communities24Poverty and Inequality24Gender26Human Health27POLICIES AND PROGRAMS28National Adaptation Policies and SItategies28Climate Change Priorities of ADB and the WBG29TABLE 3, Projections of AverAGE temperATURe anoma

3、ly () in Indonesia for different seasons (3-monthly time slices) over different time horizons and emissions pathways, showing the median esTimates of the full CCKP model ensemble and the 10th and 90th percentiles in brACKets 29Scenario2040-20592080-2099Jun-AugDec-FebJun-AugDec-FebRCP2.60.90.90.90.8(

4、0.3, 1.6)(0.4, 1.4)(0.3, 1.6)(0.3, 1.5)RCP4.51.21.21.71.6(0.6, 1.8)(0.6, 1.7)(1.0, 2.4)(1.0, 2.4)RCP6.01.11.02.11.9(0.5, 1.6)(0.5, 1.6)(1.3, 2.8)(1.3, 2.8)RCP8.51.71.63.53.3(1。2.3)(1.0, 2.2)(2.6, 4.6)(2.5, 4.4)Xcsiro_mk3_6_01Xgiss_e2_h X加人ipsl_cm5a_mr XX X 文权jxXMedian, 10th and 90thPercentileso。) A-

5、euJoue a一 dE9 MeModel EnsembleClimate projections presented in this document are derived from datasets available through the CCKP, unless otherwise stated. These datasets are processed outputs of simulations performed by multiple General Circulation Models (GCM) (for further information see Flato et

6、 al.z 2013).Flato, G., Marotzke, J., Abiodun, B., Braconnot, P., Chou, S. C.z Collins, W.,. . Rummukainen, M. (2013). Evaluation of Climate Models. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climat

7、e Change, 741-866. URL: : climatechange2013.org/images/report/WGlAR5_ALL_ FINAL.pdf Collectively, these different GCM simulations are referred to as the model ensemble7, Due to the differences in the way GCMs represent the key physical processes and interactions within the climate system, projection

8、s of future climate conditions can vary widely between different GCMs, this is particularly the case for rainfall related variables and at national and local scales. The range of projections from 16 GCMs for annual average temperature change and annual precipitation change in Indonesia under RCP8.5

9、is shown in Figure 4. Spatial representation of future projections of annual temperature and precipitation for mid and late century under RCP8.5 are presented in Figure 5.FIGURE 4, Projected AverAGE temperATURe anomaly and projected annual pain fall anomaly7 in Indonesia Outputs of 16 models within

10、the ensemble simulating RCP8 5 over the period 20802099 Models shown represent the subset of models within the ensemble that provide projections across all RCPs and therefore ARe most robust for comparison 29Three models ARe labelled 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%Average a

11、nnual precipitation anomaly (%)Spatial VariationFIGURE 5. CMIP5 ensemble projected change (32 GCMs) in annual temperATURe (bottom) and prECiPlTATiON (top) by 2040-2059 (left) and by 2080-2090 (right) rELATlve to 1986-2005 baseline under RCP8 531FIGURE 5. CMIP5 ensemble projected change (32 GCMs) in

12、annual temperATURe (bottom) and prECiPlTATiON (top) by 2040-2059 (left) and by 2080-2090 (right) rELATlve to 1986-2005 baseline under RCP8 531Temperature ChangesProjections of future temperature change are presented in three primary formats. Shown in Table 2 are the changes (anomalies) in daily maxi

13、mum and daily minimum temperatures over the given time period, as well as changes in the average temperature. Figures 6 and 7 display the annual and monthly average temperature projections. While similar, these three indicators can provide slightly different information. Monthly/annual average tempe

14、ratures are most commonly used for general estimation of climate change, but the daily maximum and minimum can explain more about how daily life might change in a region, affecting key variables such as the viability of ecosystems, health impacts, productivity of labor, and the yield of crops, which

15、 are often disproportionately influenced by temperature extremes.Projections for annual average temperature rise for Indonesia from the CCKP model ensemble are less than the global average: 3.4 compared to 3.7 under the RCP8.5 emissions pathway by the 2080s through the end of the century. Under the

16、same pathway and time-period, the annual averages of maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to increase at a similar rate average temperature 3.4. Warming projections suggest a rise of ambient temperatures from approximately 26.5 towards 29-30, significantly increasing the frequency of days

17、with temperatures 30. However, all these projections are distorted by the inability of current global climate models to distinguish between ocean and land cover over Indonesia/s smaller islands. The KNMI Climate Explorer, which can interpolate to finer spatial scales, suggests that significantly hig

18、her rates of warming may be experienced in Indonesias inland regions. WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP 2021). Indonesia. Climate Data. Projections. URL: s:climatedata.world bank. org/CRMePortal/web/agriculture/crops-and-land-management?country=IDN&period=2080-2099 KNMI (2019). Climate Explo

19、rer: CMIP5 projections. URL: s:climexp.knmi.nl/start.cgi For example, warming by the end of the century under RCP8.5 approaches 4 over central regions of Kalimantan and Sumatra. As such, adaptation planning should take account of potentialFIGURE 6. Historic and projected AVer age annual temperATURe

20、in Indonesia under two emissions pathways esTimated by the model ensemble Shading represents the standarcI deviATiON of the model ensemble Red depicts RCP8 5 AND Blue depicts RCP2 6 The solid line represents the median of the model ensemble with the shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33FI

21、GURE 6. Historic and projected AVer age annual temperATURe in Indonesia under two emissions pathways esTimated by the model ensemble Shading represents the standarcI deviATiON of the model ensemble Red depicts RCP8 5 AND Blue depicts RCP2 6 The solid line represents the median of the model ensemble

22、with the shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33Year Historical RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 6.0 RCP 8.5FIGURE 7, Projected change (anomaly) in monthly temperATURe, shown by month, for Indonesia for the period 20802099 under RCP8 5 The value shown represents the median of the model ensemble with the

23、 shaded areas showing the 10th-90th percentile 33temperatures rises higher than those shown in Tables 2 and 3. As Table 3 and Figure 7 show, there is very little seasonal variation in temperature changes projected by the CMIP5 ensemble of models under any emissions pathway and over any time period.P

24、recipitation ChangesFIGURE 8. Boxplots showing the projected AVer AGE ANNUAL prECIPITATION for INDONESIA in the period 2080-2099 33FIGURE 8. Boxplots showing the projected AVer AGE ANNUAL prECIPITATION for INDONESIA in the period 2080-2099 33Projections of future rainfall are more uncertain than tem

25、perature. The CCKP model ensemble suggests increases in median annual rainfall under all emissions pathways. However, there is large uncertainty in this estimate (as seen in the interquartile range shown in Figure 8). This shows a slight increase in precipitation levels under all emissions pathways

26、by the 2080s and 2090s. For example, median annual precipitation is projected to increase by 7% under RCP6.0 pathway and 11% under RCP8.5 pathway, from the historical baseline median of 2,884 mm. WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP, 2021). Indonesia. Interactive Dashboard. URL: s:/climatedata.

27、worldbank.org/ CRMePortal/web/energy/oil-gas-and-coal-mining?country=IDN&period=2080-2099While considerable uncertainty clouds projections of local future precipitation changes, some global trends are still evident. The intensity of sub-daily extreme rainfall events appears to be increasing with tem

28、perature, a finding supported by evidence from different regions of Asia. Westra, S., Fowler, H. J.; Evans, J. P.z Alexander, L. V., Berg, P.; Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Roberts, N. (2014). Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of G

29、eophysics, 52, 522-555. URL: s: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.eom/doi/epdf/10.1002/2014RG000464While considerable uncertainty clouds projections of local future precipitation changes, some global trends are still evident. The intensity of sub-daily extreme rainfall events appears to be increasing with

30、 temperature, a finding supported by evidence from different regions of Asia. Westra, S., Fowler, H. J.; Evans, J. P.z Alexander, L. V., Berg, P.; Johnson, F., Kendon, E. J., Lenderink, G., Roberts, N. (2014). Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews

31、of Geophysics, 52, 522-555. URL: s: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.eom/doi/epdf/10.1002/2014RG000464 However, this phenomenon is highly dependent on local geographical contexts and more research focusing on Indonesia is required to understand impacts to the country. Downscaling studies for Indonesia su

32、ggest considerable variability and uncertainty regarding spatial and temporal distribution. For example, one study points to western Indonesia experiencing a significantly increased number of dry days by the 2060s through end of the century, under RCP8.5 emissions pathway. Polade, S., Pierce, D., Ca

33、yan, D., Gershunov, A., Dettinger, M. (2014). The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes. Scientific reports. 4. 4364. 10.1038/srep04364. URL: s: nature /articles/srep04364.pdf Another study finds rainfall trajectories in the 2060s in Lombok and Sumbawa islands t

34、o be uncertain between December and February; decreasing up to 10% between March and May; with little change for other seasons. McGregor, J.L., Nguyen, K.C., Kirono, D.G. and Katzfey, J J. (2016). High-resolution climate projections for the islands of Lombok and Sumbawa, Nusa Tenggara Barat Province

35、, Indonesia: Challenges and implications. Climate Risk Management, 12, 32-44.URL: s: sciencedirect /science/article/pii/S2212096315000340Indonesia is ranked in the top-third of countries in terms of natural hazard risk (59th out of 191) by the 2019 INFORM Risk Index European Commission (2019). INFOR

36、M Index for Risk Management. Indonesia Country Profile. URL: s:drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ inform-index/Countries/Country-Profile-Map (Table 4). In particular, Indonesia has high exposure to flooding, (ranked 17th most at risk from this natural hazard). Indonesia is similarly highly exposed to tropical

37、cyclones (ranked the 23rd). Despite this high exposure to natural hazards, Indonesia ranks moderately in terms of its coping capacity and vulnerability, where it is ranked in the top half (104th and 81st respectively). The section that follows analyses climate change influences on the exposure compo

38、nent of risk in Indonesia. As seen in Figure 1, the ND-GAIN Country Index presents an overall picture of a countrys climate vulnerability and capacity to improve its resilience. In addition, the INFORM Risk Index identifies specific risks across a country to support decisions on prevention, prepared

39、ness, response and a countrys overall risk management.TABLE 4, Selected indicators from the INFORM 2019 Index for Risk MANAGEMENt for Indonesia For the sub-categories of risk (e g Flood) higher scores represent grEATER risks Conversely the most AT-risk country is rANKed 1st Global AverAGE scores ARe

40、 shown in brACKetsFlood (0-10)Tropical Cyclone (0-10)Drought (0-10)Vulnerability (0-10)Lack of Coping Capacity (0-10)Overall Inform Risk Level (0-10)Rank (1-191)8.1 4,56.1 1.73.4 3,23.2 3,64.5 4.54.7 3,859HeatwavesIndonesia regularly experiences high maximum temperatures, with an average monthly max

41、imum of around 30.6. Indonesia has a very stable temperature regime, with the hottest month, October, experiencing a maximum temperature of 31.1. The current median probability of a heat wave (defined as a period of 3 or more days where the daily temperature is above the long-term 95th percentile of

42、 daily mean temperature) is around 2%.Indonesia is positioned as one of the most vulnerable countries to extreme heatwaves according to climate model projections.3839 Under all emissions pathways, the likelihood of experiencing conditions that would historically (as based against the baseline period

43、: 1986-2005) class as a heatwave increases dramatically by the 2080s through the end of the century: approximately 71% under the RCP6.0 pathway and 96% under the RCP8.5 pathway. In their study introducing a new Heat Wave Magnitude Index, Russo et al. (2014) suggest Indonesia might experience an extr

44、eme heatwave as often as once every two years by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 emissions pathways. Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, LR.Z Powell, F.E., Geronimo, R.C., Bielecki, C.R., Counsell, C.W., Dietrich, B.S., Johnston, E.T, Louis, L.V. and Lucas, M.P. (2017). Global risk of dead

45、ly heat. Nature Climate Change, 7, 501-507. URL: s:tools.niehs.nih.gov/cchhl/ index.cfm/main/detail?reference_id=15041 Matthews, T., Wilby, R.L. and Murphy, C. (2017). Communicating the deadly consequences of global warming for human heat stress. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 114,

46、 3861-3866. URL: s: pnas.org/content/pnas/114/15/ 3861.full.pdf Russo, S., Dosio, A., Graversen, R., Sillmann, J., Carrao, H., Dunbar, M.z Singleton, A., Montagna, P., Barbosa, P., Vogt, J.z (2014). Magnitude of extreme heat waves in present climate and their projection in a warming world. Journal o

47、f Geophysical Research Atmospheres. 19. 12500-12512. URL: s:/agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley /doi/epdf/10.1002/2014JD022098 However, as these indices are in part a reflection of Indonesias historically stable baseline climate, and the continual rise in temperatures away from these conditions, extreme he

48、at should also be explored through other indicators.FIGURE 9. Boxplots showing hisTORlCAL (1986-2005) and projected (2080-2099) annual number of days with Heat Index 35 under four emissions pathways 33Heat Index is another measure of climate condition, which better captures the effective temperature experienced by the human body by factoring in relative humidity. A Heat Index of 35 is often highlighted as a threshold beyond which conditions become extremely danger