经济学人经典翻译八篇.docx

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1、印度的救赎IN MAY Americas Federal Reserve hinted that it would soon start to reduce its vast purchases of Treasury bonds. As global investors adjusted to a world without ultra-cheap money, there has been a great sucking of funds from emerging markets. Currencies and shares have tumbled, from Brazil to In

2、donesia, but one country has been particularly badly hit.今年五月,美国联邦储备委员会(Federal Reserve)暗示,它将很快开始缩减大量购买国债的规模。随着全球投资者开始调整策略,以适应没有超廉价资金的世界,大量资金开始逃离新兴市场。从巴西到印度尼西亚,货币及股票纷纷暴跌,但有一个国家受创尤其严重。Not so long ago India was celebrated as an economic miracle. In 2008 Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, said growth

3、of 8-9% was Indias new cruising speed. He even predicted the end of the “chronic poverty, ignorance and disease, which has been the fate of millions of our countrymen for centuries”. Today he admits the outlook is difficult. The rupee has tumbled by 13% in three months. The stockmarket is down by a

4、quarter in dollar terms. Borrowing rates are at levels last seen after Lehman Brothers demise. Bank shares have sunk.不久前,印度还以经济奇迹而闻名。2008年,该国总理曼莫汉辛格(Manmohan Singh)表示,8%至9%的增长率是印度新的”巡航速度”。他甚至预测,”几个世纪来一直是我们无数同胞宿命的长期贫困、愚昧和疾病”将宣告结束。现在他承认,前景不容乐观。卢比3个月内下跌了13%。以美元计算,股市下跌了四分之一。借款利率已处于雷曼兄弟倒闭后的水平。银行股票一片暴跌。On

5、 August 14th jumpy officials tightened capital controls in an attempt to stop locals taking money out of the country (seearticle). That scared foreign investors, who worry that India may freeze their funds too. The risk now is of a credit crunch and a self-fulfilling panic that pushes the rupee down

6、 much further, fuelling inflation. Policymakers recognise that the country is in its tightest spot since the balance-of-payments crisis of 1991.8月14日,紧张不安的官员收紧了资本控制,试图阻止当地人把钱转移到国外。这一举措吓到了外国投资者,他们担心印度可能也会冻结他们的资金。现在的风险是信贷紧缩,以及自我实现的恐慌,后者将进一步推动卢比下跌,从而推高通货膨胀。政策制定者承认,该国正处于1991年国际收支差额危机以来的最紧急时刻。How to lose

7、 friends and alienate peopleIndias troubles are caused partly by global forces beyond its control. But they are also the consequence of a deadly complacency that has led the country to miss a great opportunity.如何失去盟友并疏远人民印度的麻烦部分源于其控制范围之外的全球性力量。但同时,它们又是印度致命的自满情绪造成的,后者让该国错过了一个很好的机会。During the 2003-08

8、boom, when reforms would have been relatively easy to introduce, the government failed to liberalise markets for labour, energy and land. Infrastructure was not improved enough. Graft and red tape got worse.在2003至2008年的繁荣中,实施改革会相对容易,但政府未能让劳动力、能源和土地市场自由化,基础设施也没有得到足够的改善,贪污和官僚风气则更加猖獗。Private companies

9、have slashed investment. Growth has slowed to 4-5%, half the rate during the boom. Inflation, at 10%, is worse than in any other big economy. Tycoons who used to cheer Indias rise as a superpower now warn of civil unrest.如今,私营公司已削减了投资。经济增长率已放缓至4%至5%,只有繁荣时期的一半。通货膨胀达到10%,比任何其它大型经济体都严重。大亨们曾欢呼,印度将崛起成为一个

10、超级大国,如今他们发出了关于国内动乱的警告。As well as undermining 1.2 billion peoples hopes of prosperity, failure to reform dragged down the rupee. Restrictive labour laws and weak infrastructure make it hard for Indian firms to export. Inflation has led people to import gold to protect their savings. Both factors have

11、 swollen the current-account deficit, which must be financed by foreign capital. Add in the foreign debt that must be rolled over, and India needs to attract $250 billion in the next year, more than any other vulnerable emerging economy.未能改革不仅让12亿人对繁荣的希望破灭,它还导致卢比下跌。限制性的劳动法律和落后的基础设施让印度企业难以出口。通货膨胀促使人们

12、进口黄金,以保护自己的储蓄。这两个因素都让国家的经常帐户赤字变得庞大,而这必须由外资提供资金。加上必须延缓付款的外债,印度明年需吸引2500亿美元,这超过了所有其它脆弱新兴经济体所需的规模。A year ago the new finance minister, Palaniappan Chidambaram, tried to kick-start the economy. He has attempted to push key reforms, clear bottlenecks and help foreign investors. But he has lukewarm suppor

13、t within his own party and faces obstructionist opposition. Obstacles to growth, such as fuel shortages for power plants, remain. Foreign firms find nothing has changed. Meanwhile, bad debts have risen at state-run banks: 10-12% of their loans are dud. With an election due by May 2014, some fear tha

14、t the Congress-led government will now take a more populist tack. A costly plan to subsidise food hints at this.一年前,新的财政部长帕拉尼亚潘奇丹巴拉姆(Palaniappan Chidambaram)试图强力推动经济。他努力推进关键性改革,清除发展瓶颈,为外国投资者提供帮助。但他在本党内得不到有力的支持,且面临着阻挠者的反对。发电厂的燃料短缺等增长障碍仍然存在。外国企业发现,一切都没有改变。同时,国有银行的坏账已大大增加,10%到12%的贷款已成为坏账。随着2014年5月大选的临近

15、,一些人担心,现在这个由国大党领导的政府将采取更民粹主义的行动方针。一个耗资巨大的食品补贴计划正暗示了这一点。Stopping the rotTo prevent a slide into crisis, the government needs first to stop making things worse. Those capital controls backfired, yet the urge to tinker runs deep: on August 19th officials slapped duties on televisions lugged in through

16、airports. The authorities must accept that 2013 is not 1991. Then the state nearly bankrupted itself trying to defend a pegged exchange rate. Now the rupee floats, and the state has no foreign debt to speak of. A weaker currency will break some firms with foreign loans, but poses no direct threat to

17、 the governments solvency.停止衰败为了防止陷入危机,政府首先需要制止形势继续恶化。资本控制的结果事与愿违,而修修补补的冲动却根深蒂固。当局必须接受的是,现在是2013年,而非1991年。当时,为了稳住盯住美元汇率制度,印度政府几乎破产。现在卢比在浮动,但国家却已没有值得担忧的外债。疲软的货币将让一些有国外贷款的企业破产,但对政府的偿付能力却没有直接威胁。And so the Reserve Bank of India must let the rupee find its own level. The currency has not yet wildly overs

18、hot estimates of fundamental value. Raghuram Rajan, the central banks incoming head, should aim to control inflation, not micromanage one of the worlds most traded currencies.因此,印度储备银行(Reserve Bank of India)必须让卢比自己定位。该货币尚未过分超出对其基本价值的估测。该央行即将上任的行长格赫拉姆拉扬(Raghuram Rajan)应把目标放在控制通货膨胀上,而不是微观管理这个全球交易量最大的货

19、币之一。Second, the government must get its finances in order. The budget deficit has been as high as 10% of GDP in recent years. This year the government must hold down its deficit (including those of individual states) to 7% of GDP. It is already cutting fuel subsidies, andnotwithstanding the pressure

20、s in the run-up to an electionshould do so faster.其次,政府必须让其财政回到正轨。最近几年,印度预算赤字已高达国内生产总值(GDP)的10%。今年,政府必须让其赤字(包括各邦的赤字)有所下降,达到国内生产总值的7%。政府已经在削减燃油补贴,而且应该更快进行,哪怕有大选的压力。This is not enough to fix the governments finances, though. Only 3% of Indians pay income tax, so the governments tax take is puny. A pro

21、posed tax on goods and services, known as GST, would drag more of the economy into the net. It is stuck in endless cross-party talks. If the government can rally itself before the election to push for one long-term reform, this is the one it should go for.虽然,要改善政府的财政状况,这还是不够的。只有3%的印度人缴纳所得税,因此,政府的税收收

22、入极少。拟议中对商品和服务征收的消费税(GST)将会让更多的经济纳入税收体系之中。但该税收方案却因无休止的两党会谈而遥遥无期。如果政府能够在大选前团结起来,推动长期的改革,那么上述税收改革就是政府应该努力的方向。Last, the government, with the central bank, should force the zombie public-sector banks to recapitalise. In 2009 America did “stress tests” to repair its banks. India should follow. Injecting f

23、unds into banks would widen the deficit, but the surge in confidence would be worth it.最后,政府和中央银行应迫使僵化的国有银行进行资本重组。2009年,美国为恢复其银行状况,进行了”压力测试”。印度也应该效仿之。向银行注入资金会扩大赤字,但这样会让信心大增,这一结果是值得的。There are glimmers of hope: exports picked up in July, narrowing the trade gap. But India faces a difficult year, with

24、 jittery global markets and an election to boot. Even if it scrapes past the election without a full-blown financial crisis, the next government must do much, much more to change India. Over the coming decade tens of millions of young people will have to find jobs where none currently exists. Genera

25、ting the growth to create them will mean radical deregulation of protected sectors (of which retail is only the most obvious); breaking up state monopolies, from coal to railways; reforming restrictive labour laws; and overhauling Indias infrastructure of roads, ports and power.希望的曙光是存在的,7月的出口已有所回升,

26、缩小了贸易差额。但印度面临着困难的一年,全球市场紧张不安,而大选又即将展开。即使在没有全面爆发金融危机的情况下大选顺利结束,下届政府也必须要做更多努力,才能改变印度。在未来十年内,数百万年轻人将需要就业机会,但当前毫无新工作机会可言。为创造就业机会而促进增长,这将意味着要对受保护的部门(其中零售业是最明显的)彻底放松管制,从煤炭到铁路都要打破国家垄断,此外还要改革限制性的劳动法,并对印度的道路、港口和电力基础设施进行大幅改善。The calamity of 1991 led to liberalising reforms that ended decades of stagnation and

27、 allowed a spurt of fast growth. This latest brush with disaster could produce a positive legacy, too, but only if it persuades voters and the next government of the importance of a new round of reforms that deal with the economys flaws and unleash its mighty potential.1991年的灾难带来了自由化改革,这一改革结束了几十年的经济

28、停滞,并促成了井喷式的快速增长。这次的灾难威胁也可能带来好的影响,但前提是它能让选民和下届政府认识到新一轮改革的重要性,让改革解决该经济的缺陷,并释放其巨大的潜力。The adidas method阿迪达斯模式A German firms unusual approach to designing its productsTEN years ago sportswear-makers were cramming ever more features and futuristic designs into their products. They were convinced that the

29、consumer bought, say, training shoes based on their technical specifications. But in 2004 James Carnes, today adidass creative director for sportswear, and a Danish consultant named Mikkel Rasmussen met at a conference in Oslo at which Mr Rasmussen challenged this notion. A mobile phone, he said, ma

30、y have 72 functions, but that is 50 more than most people wanted, or used.十年前,运动用品生产商们一直往产品中填塞更多的功能和前卫设计。它们深信,消费者愿意购买它们的产品,比如训练鞋,是因为它们的技术规格。但在 2004年,现任阿迪达斯(adidas)运动创意总监詹姆斯卡恩斯(James Carnes)在奥斯陆的一次会议上遇见了丹麦顾问麦克尔拉斯穆森(Mikkel Rasmussen),此次会议上,拉斯穆森对卡恩斯的观点提出了质疑。他称,一部手机可能有72个功能,但其中有50多个是大多数人不想用或不会用的功 能。Mr C

31、arnes was intrigued, and so began an almost decade-long engagement for ReD, the small consultancy Mr Rasmussen co-founded in Copenhagen. In that decade adidass sales and share price have grown steadily, alongside those of Nike, an American firm that is the global leader in sportswear (see chart). It

32、 remains far ahead of Puma, its crosstown rival. The two German firms, based in Herzogenaurach in Bavaria, were founded by brothers, Adi Dassler (hence adidass name) and the older Rudolf (Puma), who fell out.这引起了卡恩斯的兴趣,于是在此后的十多年里,他开始与小型顾问公司ReD合作,该公司是由拉斯穆森在哥本哈根与他人共同创办的。其间,阿迪达斯的 销售额及股价稳步增长,而全球运动用品领导品牌

33、美国的耐克(Nike)也与其并驾齐驱。但它仍然遥遥领先于位于同城市另一区的竞争对手彪马(Puma)。 这两家德国公司的总部位于巴伐利亚黑措根奥拉赫市,创办人是兄弟俩,前者是由弟弟阿迪达斯勒(Adi Dassler)(阿迪达斯的名称由此而来)创立的,后者是由后来出走的哥哥鲁道夫(Rudolf)(彪马)创立的。Nikes brash marketing is based on offering big cheques to star athletes to endorse its products. Puma spends an even greater share of its revenues

34、 on marketing, and has pushed into non-sporting casual clothes. Its sales have grown, but they remain far behind its main rivals. Adidas takes a quieter approach, spending less of its revenues on marketing than the other two. Although about a third of adidass sales are also “lifestyle” goods, sports

35、wear remains at the firms core.耐克浮华的营销策略是高价聘请明星运动员来为产品代言。而彪马在市场营销方面的投入占其收入的比重则更大,并开始进军非运动类的休闲服领域。虽然其 销售额不断增长,但仍远远落后于主要竞争对手。阿迪达斯采取的方式更为低调,与其它两家公司相比,其市场营销方面的投入占其收入的比重最低。虽 然”lifestyle”系列产品的销售额还是占阿迪达斯总销售额的三分之一左右,但运动用品仍然是公司的核心业务。To succeed in a business with tight margins, adidas has had to get the nuts

36、and bolts right. Like its rivals it has outsourced production to cut costs, for example. But with ReDs help it has also made handsome stuff that American rappers mention in their lyrics, and it now has prominent designers offering to co-operate on projects. Mr Carnes gives generous credit to the gee

37、ks at ReD, saying that they have had “a general effect on everything”.要在利润微薄的业务领域成功,阿迪达斯就必须注重所有细节。例如,与竞争对手一样,它已利用生产外包来降低成本。但在ReD的帮助下,它也设计出不 俗的产品,甚至美国说唱歌手在他们的歌词中也提到了这些产品,现在阿迪达斯拥有杰出的设计师从事各项目的合作。卡恩斯将大部分功劳归功于ReD的极客们, 称他们”无所不能”。ReD has some curious methods. It hires ex-academics, largely anthropologists

38、and ethnologists, to study customers motivations intimately. ReD trained a group of adidas design staff in basic techniques, and sent each of them to spend 24 hours with a customer: to have breakfast, run and do yoga with them, and find out what made them exercise. In a related project, an anthropol

39、ogy doctoral student working for ReD mailed dozens of customers a disposable camera, asking them to photograph something that made them work out. Of 30 women who responded, 25 sent a picture of a little black dress, says Mr Carnes. The company had assumed that most customers were training to be good

40、 at specific sports; in fact for many, fitness itself was their “sport”.ReD的方法令人称奇。公司聘用具有专业知识的前任学者来密切研究客户的动机,这些学者大多是人类学家和民族学家。ReD为阿迪达斯培养了一批具有 基本技术的设计人员,并安排他们每人与一名顾客共度24小时的时光:吃早餐、跑步、跟他们一起做瑜伽,并了解他们运动的动机。在一个相关的项目中,一位为 ReD工作的人类学博士生给几十个客户邮寄了一次性相机,请求他们拍摄那些激发他们去运动的事物。卡恩斯称,在给予回复的30名妇女中,25名回复了一张 黑色小礼服的图片。该公司

41、曾假设,大多数客户是想通过训练让自己擅长某些特定的体育训练项目;但事实上,对于大多数人来说,保持身材才是”运动”的目的。Spending weeks with both the professional and amateur divisions of Bayern Munich football club, ReDs researchers asked not how long the studs on their boots should be, but what would determine the success of a footballer in ten years time.

42、They learned that top European clubs had all become proficient at teaching the necessary skills. The thing that could not be taught, and could only to a small extent be trained, was speed. So adidas adapted one of its track shoes into an exceptionally light football boot. When released in 2010 it be

43、came an instant hitand it scored far and away the most goals in that years World Cup.ReD的研究员曾分别与拜仁慕尼黑足球俱乐部的职业和业余球队共度了几周时间,他们并没有向队员询问鞋球鞋上的鞋钉应该做多长,而重点关注十年的时 间内,决定足球运动员成功的关键之所在。他们了解到,欧洲的顶级俱乐部都已了解如何教授必要的技能。但速度却是无法授予或只能在小范围内训练的技能。所以 阿迪达斯将其一款钉鞋打造为极轻的足球鞋。该足球鞋在2010年问市时一炮而红,而这款鞋也无疑为当年的世界杯(World Cup)贡献了最多的进球。

44、Intimate study of customers has influenced aesthetic design too. Adidas got the job of creating the host countrys uniforms for last years London Olympics. ReD found that for all their patriotism, Brits did not get terribly moved by traditional images like the monarchy and double-decker buses. So adi

45、das and ReD told Stella McCartney, their chosen designer (pictured, centre), to think “untraditionally British”. She made a splash by putting the Union Jacks red only on shoes, socks and trim, while making elements of the flag so big that on some shirts they were unrecognisable. Despite some initial

46、 criticism it was a commercial hit.对消费者的密切研究也影响了美学设计。在去年的伦敦奥运会(Olympics)上,阿迪达斯负责设计东道国的制服。ReD发现,尽管英国人具有爱国 主义情节,但君主制和双层巴士等传统图像并不会令他们动容。因此,阿迪达斯和ReD向他们指定的设计师斯特拉麦卡特尼(Stella McCartney)表示,以”非传统的英国”方式思考。她仅将英国国旗(Union Jack)的红色用在了鞋子、袜子和装饰上,而国旗的各种元素夸大地应用在一些衬衫中,以至于人们几乎认不出来,由此引起了巨大轰动。尽管最初遭到了一些 批评,但无疑获得了商业成功。Simi

47、lar research into national identity is going into next years football World Cup uniforms. When Russians were interviewed about what made them proud, “nothing past 1970 ever came up,” says Mr Carnes. Instead they mentioned Dostoevsky, the second world war and winning the race into space. So Russias u

48、niforms will feature a curve representing Yuri Gagarins view from orbit.明年的足球世界杯设计制服,阿迪达斯也对民族认同开始了同样的调研。当俄国人被问及何事令他们感到自豪时,卡恩斯说:”1970年以后就没什么值得 骄傲的了。”。与之相反,他们提到了陀思妥耶夫斯基(Dostoevsky)、第二次世界大战和赢得太空竞赛。因此,俄罗斯的制服将以一条曲线为主题,象 征尤里加加林(Yuri Gagarin)从轨道俯视地球的视角。Adidas has set an ambitious 2 billion ($2.7 billion) s

49、ales target for its football division alone in 2014, up from 1.5 billion in 2010, the last World Cup year. Overall, the company wants 17 billion in sales by 2015, at the same time increasing operating-profit margins to 11% (from 8% now). Zany as some of its methods sound, equity analysts seem convinced that they will continue to pay off. In a recent poll of 34 analysts by Reuters news agency, none recommended selling the shares, and 25 labelled them as “buy” or “

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