主要内容：菲利普斯曲线的定义菲利普斯曲线的推导长期菲利普斯曲线短期菲利普斯曲线的移动.ppt

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1、主要内容：菲利普斯曲线的定义菲利普斯曲线的推导长期菲利普斯曲线短期菲利普斯曲线的移动 Still waters run deep.流静水深流静水深,人静心深人静心深 Where there is life,there is hope。有生命必有希望。有生命必有希望失业和通货膨胀lOriginsofthePhillipsCurvelIn1958,aneconomistnamedA.W.PhillipswroteanarticlediscussingthenegativecorrelationbetweeninflationratesandunemploymentratesintheUnitedK

2、ingdom.ThePhillipsCurveInflation rateUnemploymentratePhillips CurvePhillipsCurvelThebeliefwasthatlowunemploymentisrelatedtohighaggregatedemand,andhighaggregatedemandputsupwardpressureonwagesandprices.lHighunemploymentisrelatedtolowaggregatedemand,andlowaggregatedemandpullspricelevelsdown.l低失业时候，由于总需

3、求高，推高物价和工资水平。l高失业时，总需求减少，物价水平下降。高失业低通胀导致美国经济下行风险增加l记者国外媒体获悉，根据美联储美联储昨天发布的2010年6月份货币政策决策例会纪要，今年美国经济美国经济预计增长3.0%到3.5%，低于4月份的预测值。l美联储认为，美国经济增长面临的下行风险增加，未来经济走势将显现“两低一高”特征，即低增长、低通胀与高失业率。低增长低增长l美联储说，调低今年经济增长预期的一个重要原因是，欧洲主权债务危机导致全球金融市场紧张形势再度加剧。企业融资的风险溢价显著上升，股票价格大幅缩水，美元对多数主要货币汇率走高，这些变化有可能导致企业和家庭开支在未来几个季度受到抑

4、制。l美联储认为，住房市场持续疲软、经济刺激政策效果减退、就业形势难见起色以及信贷紧缩状况改善缓慢，将继续制约复苏步伐。高失业率高失业率l美联储预计，2010年美国失业率将达到9.2%到9.5%，略高于4月份预测的9.1%到9.5%。2011年和2012年失业率有所回落，预计分别为8.3%到8.7%、7.1%到7.5%，也都高于4月份预测值，且远远高于美联储认为的5.0%到5.3%的长期均衡水平。l今年6月份，美国失业率较上月下降0.2个百分点，至9.5%，但这主要是求职者总数下降所致。6月份，美国失业者平均失业时间为35周，创下第二次世界大战结束以来的新高低通胀低通胀l美联储认为，美国通货膨

5、胀率目前仍处于较低水平，且呈现下行趋势。l在衡量通货膨胀走势的核心消费价格指数方面，美联储预测今年该指数增幅将在0.8%至1.0%，低于4月份预期的0.9%至1.2%l。l美联储称，大宗商品价格及名义工资增长缓慢，加之美元升值导致美国进口商品价格下降，对通货膨胀产生抑制作用。美联储一些官员甚至认为，美国近期有陷入通货紧缩的风险。超低利率将维持超低利率将维持l最近两个月美国消费价格指数连续出现下跌。过去12个月，扣除能源和食品的核心消费价格指数只增长了0.9%，为1966年以来的最缓慢增幅。l低通胀为美联储继续实施超低利率提供了政策空间。为应对金融危机和经济衰退，美联储自将利率由5.25降至00

6、.25，此后一直保持在这一历史最低水平。l美联储认为，为确保可持续复苏，必须将这一超低利率“延长一段时间”，过早加息有扼杀经济复苏萌芽的风险。美国核心通胀率料仍维持在美联储目标美国核心通胀率料仍维持在美联储目标区间内区间内l2011年年4月月26日日l美国债国债券交易商协会及穆迪(Moodys)周一(25日)公布的一项调查结果显示，美国2012年底前核心通胀率料仍将维持在美联储(FED)的目标区间内。l接受上述机构调查的经济学家的预期中值显示，美国2011年整体通货膨胀率为2.8%，但在2012年这一指标将下降至1.7%。l2011年不包括食品及能源的核心通胀率将维持在相对较低的水平1.3%，

7、2012年为1.4%。l数据表明，2012年年底之前美国核心通胀率仍将维持在美联储(Fed)2%的目标区间内，但今年余下时间内食品及能源价格的上涨将推动整体通胀率的上升。l调查结果符合大多数美联储官员的预期。他们认为尽管通货膨胀在加剧，但物价的上涨将是暂时的。lPhillipsCurve:lacurvethatshowstheshort-runtradeoffbetweeninflationandunemployment.lSamuelsonandSolowbelievedthatthePhillipscurveofferedpolicymakersamenuofpossibleeconomi

8、coutcomes.lPolicymakerscouldusemonetaryandfiscalpolicytochooseanypointonthecurve.l政府利用货币财政政策的选择，可以使经济在该曲线上变动。菲利普斯曲线的推导lAggregateDemand,AggregateSupply,andthePhillipsCurvelThePhillipscurveshowsthecombinationsofinflationandunemploymentthatariseintheshortrunduetoshiftsintheaggregatedemandcurve.总需求曲线的移动

9、ShiftsintheADcurvelGiventhatmonetaryandfiscalpolicycanbothshifttheaggregate-demandcurve,thesetypesofpoliciescanmovetheeconomyalongthePhillipscurve.la.Increasesinthemoneysupply,movestheeconomytoapointonthePhillipscurvewithlowerunemploymentandhigherinflation.增加货币供给,总需求上升，降低失业率.lb.Decreasesinthemoneysu

10、pply,decreasesingovernmentspending,movetheeconomytoapointonthePhillipscurvewithhigherunemploymentandlowerinflation.减少货币供给,降低通货膨胀,提高失业率.ShiftsintheADcurveABAD1ASAD2PriceLevelOutputThePhillipsCurveInflation rateUnemploymentratePhillips CurveBAShiftsinthePhillipsCurve:TheRoleofExpectationslTheLong-RunP

11、hillipsCurvelIn1968,economistMiltonFriedmanarguedthatmonetarypolicyisonlyabletochooseacombinationofunemploymentandinflationforashortperiodoftime.弗里德曼提出货币供给的变化只在短期影响失业和通货膨胀。长期菲利普斯曲线lInthelongrun,wewouldnotexpecttheretobearelationshipbetweenunemploymentandinflation.lThePhillipscurveisvertical.lThevert

12、icallong-runPhillipscurveisoneexpressionoftheclassicalidealofmonetaryneutrality.古典理论的货币中性,使长期菲力普斯曲线是垂线.TheLongRunPhillipsCurveLong Run Phillips CurveInflation ratelThelong-runaggregate-supplycurveoccursattheeconomysnaturalrateofoutput;thus,thelong-runPhillipscurveoccursatthenaturalrateofunemployment

13、.l长期菲利普斯曲线上失业率等于自然失业率。ShiftoftheLongRunPhillipsCurveChangeinProductivityShiftontheLongRunPhillipsCurveChangeintheNaturalrateofunemploymentl如果长期总供给曲线向右移动，自然失业率降低，那么长期菲利普斯曲线会向左移动。l自然失业率和劳动生产效率的变化会使长期的非力普斯曲线产生移动。ExpectationsandtheShort-RunPhillipsCurvelThe expected rate of inflationisonevariablewhichde

14、terminesthepositionoftheshort-runaggregate-supplycurve.预期通货膨胀决定短期菲利普斯曲线。Unemployment=lnaturalrateofunemploymenta*(actualinflation-expectedinflation)lHigheractualinflationisassociatedwithlowerunemployment.ShiftsinthePhillipsCurvelIntheshort-run,peoplesexpectationsaresomewhatfixed.ll-WhentheFedincreas

15、esthemoneysupply,aggregatedemandincreasesalongtheupwardslopingshort-runaggregate-supplycurve.Outputgrows(unemploymentfalls)andthepricelevelrises(inflationincreases).FromAtopointB.政府增加货币供给，使产量上升物价水平上涨，失业减少。l-Eventually,peoplewillbeginexpectingahigherrateofinflation.预期物价上涨。ShiftsinthePhillipsCurvel-Wh

16、enexpectedinflationrises,thePhillipscurveshiftsupward.l当预期通货膨胀上升,菲力普斯曲线向上移动.l-Theeconomyendsupatapointwithhigherinflationandwiththesamelevelofunemployment.FromBtopointC.l最后经济移动到C点，通货膨胀上升，失业率不变。ShiftsinthePhillipsCurvelInflationlrateACBUnemployment rate选择题l1.AccordingtothePhillipscurve,policymakerswo

17、uldreduceinflationbutraiseunemploymentiftheyla.decreasedthemoneysupply.lb.increasedgovernmentexpenditures.lc.decreasedtaxes.ld.Noneoftheaboveiscorrect.l2.Ifpolicymakersdecreaseaggregatedemand,theninthelongrunla.priceswillbelowerandunemploymentwillbehigher.lb.priceswillbelowerandunemploymentwillbeunc

18、hanged.lc.pricesandunemploymentwillbeunchanged.ld.Noneoftheaboveiscorrect.l3.FriedmanandPhelpsarguedla.thatinthelongrun,monetarygrowthdidnotinfluencethosefactorsthatdeterminetheeconomysunemploymentrate.lb.thatthePhillipscurvecouldbeexploitedinthelongrunbyusingmonetary,butnotfiscalpolicy.lc.thatthesh

19、ort-runPhillipscurvewasverysteep,butnotvertical.ld.thattherewasneitherashort-runnorlong-runtradeoffbetweeninflationandunemployment.l4.IftheFederalReserveincreasestherateatwhichitincreasesthemoneysupply,thenunemploymentislowerla.inthelongrunandtheshortrun.lb.inthelongrunbutnottheshortrun.lc.intheshor

20、trunbutnotthelongrun.ld.inneithertheshortrunnorthelongrun.l5.Howwouldadecreaseinthenaturalrateofunemploymentaffectthelong-runPhillipscurve?la.Itwouldshiftthelong-runPhillipscurveright.lb.Itwouldshiftthelong-runPhillipscurveleft.lc.Therewouldbeanupwardmovementalongagivenlong-runPhillipscurve.ld.There

21、wouldbeadownwardmovementalongagivenlong-runPhilipscurve.l6.Amovementtotheleftalongagivenshort-runPhillipscurvecouldbecausedbyla.areductioninthenaturalrateofunemploymentorexpansionarymonetarypolicy.lb.expansionarymonetarypolicy,butnotareductioninthenaturalrateofunemployment.lc.eitherareductioninthena

22、turalrateofunemploymentoracontractionarymonetarypolicy.ld.contractionarymonetarypolicy,butnotareductioninthenaturalrateofunemployment.l7.Iftheminimumwageincreased,thenatanygivenrateofinflationla.bothoutputandemploymentwouldbehigher.lb.neitheroutputnoremploymentwouldbehigher.lc.outputwouldbehigherand

23、unemploymentwouldbelower.ld.outputwouldbelowerandunemploymentwouldbehigher.l8.Ifexpectedinflationincreases,whichofthefollowingshiftsright?la.boththeshort-runandthelong-runPhillipscurveslb.theshort-runbutnotthelong-runPhillipscurvelc.thelong-runbutnottheshort-runPhillipscurveld.neitherthelong-runnort

24、heshort-runPhillipscurveTheNaturalExperimentlThePhillipsCurveinthe1960slBeginninginthelate1960s,thegovernmentfollowedpoliciesthatincreasedaggregatedemand.lla.IncreasedgovernmentspendingbecauseoftheVietnamWar.越南战争使政府赤字增加。lb.Increasesinthemoneysupplytotrytokeepinterestratesdown.货币供应上升llThePhillipsCurv

25、ein1960slInflationUnemploymentratel19611.0%7%l19684.2%3.5%l19714.2%6.0%l19736.2%5%l197411%lAsaresultofthesepolicies,theinflationrateremainedfairlyhigh.However,eventhoughinflationremainedhigh,unemploymentdidnotremainlow.l但政策并没有使失业减少。lPolicymakershadlearnedthatFriedmanwereright:thereisnotradeoffbetwee

26、ninflationandunemploymentinthelongrun.l所以，现实证明在长期中并不存在失业和通货膨胀间的取舍关系。ShiftsinthePhillipsCurvelFriedmanhadsuggestedin1968thatchangesinexpectedinflationshifttheshort-runPhillipscurve.l预期物价引起短期曲线移动。ShiftsinthePhillipsCurve:TheRoleofSupplyShockslSupplyShock:供给冲击laneventthatdirectlyaltersfirmscostsandpric

27、es,shiftingtheeconomysaggregate-supplycurveandthusthePhillipscurve.lIn1974,OPECincreasedthepriceofoilsharply.l石油危机Thisincreasedthecostofproducingmanygoodsandservicesandthereforeresultedinhigherprices.供给冲击lWecouldrepresentthissupplyshockasashiftintheshort-runaggregatesupplycurvetotheleft.l供给冲击使短期供给曲线

28、左移.lThedecreaseinequilibriumoutputandtheincreaseinthepricelevellefttheeconomywithstagflation.l经济产生滞胀.菲力普斯曲线右移lGiventhisturnofevents,policymakersareleftwithalessfavorableshort-runtradeoffbetweenunemploymentandinflation.lThePhilipscurveshiftstotheright.l预期物价上升使菲力普斯曲线右移。经济中的失业和通货膨胀的短期取舍变坏了。AScurveshift

29、stotheleft,StagflationPrice levelOutputAS1ThePhillipscurveshiftstotherightPC2PC1Inflation rate ThePhillipscurveshiftstotherightShortrunAScurveShiftleftPhillipscurveShiftrightExpectedinflationincreasesAdverseSupplyshock不利的供给供给冲击国际油价逼近100美元第四次石油危机利剑在悬l中东地区的动荡，搅动全球原油(98.58,-0.43,-0.43%)市场心神不宁。第四次“石油危机”

30、是否到来，仍是一个不确定的问题。l昨日，由于市场担心世界原油供应未来有可能会出现大规模中断，纽约市场原油价格盘中一度超过了100美元/桶。这是2008年10月以来美国原油价格首次达到100美元。23日，伦敦布伦特油价更是一举突破每桶110美元，收于每桶111.25美元。l利比亚的原油产量占全球原油生产的2%，其本身的产量不足以对世界原油供给造成巨大影响。但是市场担心的是利比亚的冲突之后，另一个产油国阿尔及利亚也会出现动乱，进而扩散到沙特阿拉伯等石油大国。三次三次“石油危机石油危机”l中东的局势让人想起了过去几十年间的三次“石油危机”。l第一次发生在1973年，当年10月爆发第四次中东战争，OP

31、EC中的阿拉伯成员国为了打击以色列及其支持者，于12月宣布收回石油标价权，并将积陈原油价格提升两倍多，引发了第二次世界大战后最严重的全球范围内的经济危机，且一直持续了3年。ll第二次是5年之后的1978年底，伊朗亲美的温和派国王巴列维下台，作为世界第二大石油出口国伊朗的政局剧变，加之两伊战争的爆发，令全球石油产量从每天580万桶骤减到100万桶以下。l次年，国际油价成倍暴涨。1980年，原油价格已经从原来的每桶13美元飙升至34美元，且持续超过半年时间。l第三次是1990年8月，伊拉克攻占科威特，美国对伊拉克开战，伊拉克也遭到国际经济制裁，伊原油供应中断，国际油价随之一路猛涨，3个月内从每桶1

32、4美元飙到42美元高点。l从历史上看，中东政局的动荡造成了三次“石油危机”，“石油危机”也给世界经济带来了极大的负面影响。l持续三年的第一次“石油危机”给发达国家经济造成了严重的冲击，所有发达国家经济增长明显放缓，统计数据显示，其中美国的工业生产下降了14%，日本工业生产则猛降了20%以上；第二次危机则成为上世纪70年代末发达国家经济全面衰退的主要原因之一；l第三次危机也令发达国家，尤其是英国和美国加速陷入衰退，全球经济增速在1991年跌破2%，不过由于以沙特为首的OPEC增产稳定石油价格，此次高油价持续的时间不长，和前两次相比，全球经济受到的影响也相对小一些。lIstheadverseshi

33、ftinthePhillipscurvetemporaryorpermanent?l菲力普斯曲线右移是暂时还是持久的？lIfpeopleexpecttheriseininflationasatemporaryevent,expectedinflationdoesnotchange,andthePhillipscurvewillsoonmovetoitsformerposition.当预期通货膨胀不变时，菲力普斯曲线回到原位。判断题练习l1。Accordingtothenaturalratehypothesis,theunemploymentrateshouldequal0percentinth

34、elongrun.Fl2。Thelong-runPhillipscurveisaupward-slopinglineatthenaturalrateofunemployment.Fl3。Adecreaseinthegrowthrateofthemoneysupplyeventuallycausestheshort-runPhillipscurvetoshiftright.Fl4。Anadversesupplyshockshiftstheshort-runPhillipscurverightandtheshort-runaggregate-supplycurveleft.Tl5。Anincrea

35、seininflationexpectationsshiftstheshort-runPhillipscurverightandhasnoeffectonthelong-runPhillipscurve.Tl6。Apolicychangethatreducesthenaturalrateofunemploymentshiftsboththelong-runaggregate-supplycurveandthelong-runPhillipscurveleft.Fl7。InthelongrunpeoplecometoexpectwhateverinflationratetheFedchooses

36、toproduce,sounemploymentreturnstoitsnaturalrate.Tl8。IntheFriedman-Phelpsanalysis,wheninflationislessthanexpected,theunemploymentrateislessthanthenaturalrate.Fl9。Fiscalpolicycannotbeusedtomovetheeconomyalongtheshort-runPhillipscurve.Fl10。IftheFedweretoincreasethemoneysupply,inflationwouldincreaseandu

37、nemploymentwoulddecreaseintheshortrun.Tl11。TheproliferationofInternetusageservesasanexampleofafavorablesupplyshock.TTheCostsofReducingInflationl治理通货膨胀的成本。lToreducetheinflationrate,theFedhastopursuecontractionarymonetarypolicy.l政府采取紧缩的货币政策，治理通货膨胀。lWhenmoneysupplyisgrowingslower,itreducestheaggregated

38、emandandleadstoafallinemployment.TheCostsofReducingInflationlSacrificeRatio:牺牲比率lthenumberofpercentagepointsofannualoutputlostintheprocessofreducinginflationby1percentagepoint.lAtypicalestimateofthesacrificeratiois5.Thisimpliesthatforeachpercentagepointinflationisdecreased,outputfallsby5percen牺牲率t.一

39、般是5，物价水平每减少1%，产量下降5%。lsacrificeratio=%Fallinoutput/l%FallininflationlSacrificeratio=(-30%)/(-6%)=5lInordertoreduceinflationby6%,theannualGDPwouldbefallingby30%.假设物价下降6%，那么产量将减少30%。ThePossibilityofCostlessDisinflationlRationalExpectations:理性预期lthetheoryaccordingtowhichpeopleoptimallyusealltheinformat

40、iontheyhave,includinginformationaboutgovernmentpolicies,whenforecastingthefuture.lThisimpliesthattheshort-runPhillipscurvewouldshiftquicklywithoutanyextendedperiodofhighunemployment.在理性预期下，短期曲线会快速移动，而不会产生长期高失业。l降低通货膨胀的政策可以采取2个方法:l1.紧缩的货币政策,但会引起产量下降,经济进入严重衰退.失业增加。l2.利用理性预期理论.紧缩的货币政策,同时调整预期通货膨胀,会引起产量轻

41、微减少,经济发展基本稳定.ZeroSacrificeratiolIfthegovernmentmadeacommitmenttoapolicyoflowinflation,peoplewouldberationalenoughtolowertheexpectationofinflationquickly.当公众降低通货膨胀预期后，短期曲线将向左移动。失业率和物价水平同时下降。lTheshortrunPhillipscurvewouldshifttotheleft.TheVolckerdisinflationlInflationUnemploymentratel197911.2%6%l19811

42、0.4%7.5%l19836.2%l19833.2%9.5%l19873.6%6.1%lThefallinflationisattributedtotheanti-inflationmonetarypolicybytheFed.lInflationratefellfrom11.2%to3.6%butunemploymentratewasunchanged.ThePhillipsCurveshiftstotheleftInflationPC1PC2TheGreenspanEralIn1986,OPECsagreementwithitsmembersbrokedownandoilpricesfel

43、l.Theresultofthisfavorablesupplyshockwasadropinbothinflationandunemployment.lSincethen,inflationgraduallydropped,approachingzerobytheendofthedecade.lThislikelyimpliesthattheshort-runPhillipscurvehasdriftedleftward,givingtheUnitedStatesamorefavorabletradeoffbetweeninflationandunemployment.llWhatfacto

44、rsshouldcausethelongrunPhillipscurveshifttotheleft?ShiftoftheLongRunPhillipsCurveChangeinProductivityShiftontheLongRunPhillipsCurveChangeintheNaturalrateofunemploymentlCausesofthismovementintheshort-runPhillipscurveinclude:u-reductionsinexpectedinflation,预期通货膨胀降低l-lowercommodityprices,有利的供给冲击l-chang

45、esinthestabilityofthelaborforce,l-technologicaladvancements.科学技术发展ProblemsinBookl2.Ariseinthenaturalrateofunemploymentshiftsthelong-runPhillipscurvetotheright.lTheeconomyisinitiallyonLRPC1andSRPC1ataninflationrateof3percent,whichisalsotheexpectedrateofinflation.Theincreaseinthenaturalrateofunemploym

46、entshiftsthelong-runPhillipscurvetoLRPC2andtheshort-runPhillipscurvetoSRPC2,withtheexpectedrateofinflationremainingequalto3percent.lB.lAdeclineinthepriceofimportedoilshiftstheshort-runPhillipscurvedown,asshowninFigure33-10,fromSRPC1toSRPC2.Foranygivenunemploymentrate,theinflationrateislower,sinceoil

47、issuchasignificantaspectofproductioncostsintheeconomy.lC.Ariseingovernmentspendingrepresentsanincreaseinaggregatedemand,soitmovestheeconomyalongtheshort-runPhillipscurve,.lTheeconomymovesfrompointAtopointB,withadeclineintheunemploymentrateandanincreaseintheinflationrate.l3.1lThedeclineinconsumerspen

48、dingreducesaggregatedemand,shiftingtheaggregate-demandcurvetotheleftfromAD1toAD2.lTheeconomyinitiallyremainsontheshort-runaggregate-supplycurveSRAS1,sothenewequilibriumoccursatpointB.lThemovementoftheaggregate-demandcurvealongtheshort-runaggregate-supplycurveleadstoamovementalongshort-runPhillipscur

49、veSRPC1,frompointAtopointB.l3.2lAsexpectedinflationrisesovertime,theshort-runaggregate-supplycurveshiftsdownfromAS1toAS2,andtheshort-runPhillipscurveshiftsdownfromSRPC1toSRPC2.lInbothdiagrams,theeconomyeventuallygetstopointC,whichisbackonthelong-runaggregate-supplycurveandlong-runPhillipscurve.lAfte

50、rtherecessionisover,theeconomyfacesabettersetofinflation-unemploymentcombinations.l6.Itshowstheeffectsofafallinthepriceofoil.l1.）Theshort-runaggregate-supplycurveshiftstotheright,reducingthepricelevelandincreasingthequantityofoutput.Theshort-runPhillipscurveshiftstotheleft.Inbothdiagrams,theeconomym