Chinese Car Market Customer Requirements.pdf

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1、VOLKSWAGEN Group China1VOLKSWAGEN Group ChinaXu JianVice President Strategy&Corporate DevelopmentVolkswagen Group ChinaChinese Car Market&Customer RequirementsAnalyst/Investor ConferenceShanghai,24 May 2006VOLKSWAGEN Group China21.Chinese Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group Chi

2、na31.Chinese Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group China4The Chinese car market will continue to develop towards the sophistication of developed countries1.Continuing stable growthWill become world No.2 by 2010Chinese Car Market2.Proliferation of small/fuel efficient carsA,A0 and

3、 A00 account for 2/3 of total market3.Rate of price erosion declines 10-12%cum.for the next 5 years4.Diesel cars becoming more popularAccounting 10%of total market by 20105.Used car business picking upGrowth rate tripled in line with new car salesChinese Car MarketTrendsVOLKSWAGEN Group China5The Ch

4、inese passenger car market has been growing by over 40%p.a.over the last 5 years.This trend will continue at a lower speedChinese car market sales forecast 1),conservative scenario million unitsSource:CAAM and internal analysisChinese Car MarketContinuing Stable Growth2.61.40.82.3CAGR*=+42%3.33.64.5

5、5.6CAGR=+6%200120022003200420052006E2010E2015E*Compound Annual Growth Rate1)Optimistic scenario:3.8 mio.units in 2006 and 5.0 mio.units in 2010VOLKSWAGEN Group China62082412682903033117148278809549956557588429129099323453834564764881,0211,6431,6011,5341,4161,2401,071298010002000300040005000200520062

6、007200820092010A,A0 and A00 will account for more than 2/3 of the total market.Proliferation of small and fuel-efficient carsForecast only refers to Mainland ChinaChinese Car MarketSegment Development(2005-2010)3,2943,6003,9204,2464,4314,547A00(Mini)A0(Polo)A(Golf)B(Passat)C(Audi A6)D(Phaeton)000 un

7、itsVOLKSWAGEN Group China7Diesel powered cars will grow faster to reach 10%share by 2010Passenger car market structure by fuel type(2005-2010E)%Source:VGC internal analysis,External expert interviews20052007E2010E100%100%100%99%8795%2%03%510%98%PetrolDieselHybrid and alternative technologies1%3.33.9

8、4.5million unitsChinese Car Market Passenger Car Market Structure by Fuel Type IllustrativeVOLKSWAGEN Group China8Passenger car25%20%15%10%5%0123455%3%8%9%12%15%20%1.52.5New consumption tax system imposes higher tax for passenger vehicles with engine above 2.0 litresSources:Ministry of Finance of PR

9、C;VGC internal analysis,External publice information and interviewsNew consumption tax Old consumption taxSUV25%20%15%10%5%0123455%3%9%12%15%20%2.5New consumption tax Old consumption tax1.55%Tax%Tax%Engine size(liter)Engine size(liter)Chinese Car Market New Consumption Tax since April 1,2006 VOLKSWA

10、GEN Group China9Chinas used car market is still in its infancy.We expect stronger growth of over 30%per annum up to 2010Source:Mercer Management Consulting;KPMG estimates,desktop researchGrowth of Chinas used car market (2004-2010)Comparison of total car sales in China and U.S.units:millionunits:000

11、*:Data in 2003Forecast20042006E2007E2009E2010E2008E20054605327801,0801,4501,8152,4006.82010E35%65%48U.S.*75%25%Used carsNew cars 3.87200514%86%ChinaCAGR=+32%Chinese Car Market Development of Used Car MarketVOLKSWAGEN Group China10The sales channels of used cars will change in favor of OEMs dealers a

12、nd independent online platformsDevelopment of used car sales channels Units:millionSpecialized used car markets0.53200580%10%10%2.42010E30%50%20%Online platformsOEMs dealersSource:;dealer survey;desktop researchChinese Car Market Development of Used Car Sales ChannelsVOLKSWAGEN Group China111.Chines

13、e Car Market2.Customer RequirementsOverviewVOLKSWAGEN Group China12Chinese customers are becoming more diversified and individual.More mainstream buyers?From elite to mainstream white collarYounger and more female buyers?Age from 40s to 30s?Female buyers increase from 15%to 25%In search of freshness

14、 of design and maximum features/equipments?Fresh design?Maximum features and equipmentDiversified buying preference?German and Japanese carmore preferred?Exclusive bodytypeto reflect individuality?Authorized shops and Auto finance becoming popularIIIIIIIVCustomer RequirementsTrendsChinese customersV

15、OLKSWAGEN Group China13SocialStatus高层高层高层高层High现代，性能，卓越现代，性能，卓越现代，性能，卓越现代，性能，卓越Modernity,Performance and Excellence 生活方式生活方式生活方式生活方式&技术技术技术技术Lifestyle&Technology声望声望声望声望&攀比攀比攀比攀比Prestige&Competition多功能性多功能性多功能性多功能性&经济经济经济经济Versatility&Economy低预算低预算低预算低预算&耐久性耐久性耐久性耐久性Low Budget&Durability传统豪华传统豪华传统豪华

16、传统豪华Traditional Luxury中层中层中层中层MiddleMiddle中上层中上层中上层中上层UpperMiddleSources:SIGMA SENSOR China 2005 StudyChinese Customer 7 Automotive Segments/MilieusValue Orientation地位地位地位地位&舒适舒适舒适舒适Status&ComfortModernTraditionalVOLKSWAGEN Group China14Customer RequirementsCustomer Characteristics&Buying BehaviorWe

17、 sub-divide the market by:-Characteristics of the potential customer and-Buying power of the householdVOLKSWAGEN Group China15The potential car buyers are becoming younger and there will be more female buyers.AgeGender46-60yr36-45yr26-35yr18-25yr9%20%40%41%35%28%16%11%OwnerPotentialBuyerMaleFemale15

18、%25%85%75%OwnerPotentialBuyerSource:VGC branding project,Customer survey data(China,April 2005,n=6123,18-60 yrs)Customer RequirementsDevelopment of Customer ClustersVOLKSWAGEN Group China16Chinese customers are demanding.At a given quality level 90%of potential car buyers will purchase a car with ma

19、ximum performance and features.Potential buyer structure*Over-spenderMaximum-features drivenBest-performance drivenLowest-costdrivenDont know*Assuming quality and function to be equal-I will purchase a car with the lowest price-I will buy a car with the best performance within my budget-I will buy a

20、 car with the most features/equipmentwithin my budget-I can accept a higher price in order to get a better car-I dont know/have not decidedSource:VGC branding project,Customer survey data(China,April 2005,n=6123,18-60 yrs)Customer RequirementsBuyer Structure2%24%27%41%6%VOLKSWAGEN Group China1711%15

21、%1%1%2%64%5%Consumers are looking for more specific cars that express their personalityOwner preference-body stylePotential buyer preference-body styleSource:VGC branding project,Customer survey data(China,April 2005,n=6123,18-60 yrs)4%82%1%10%3%CoupeMPVSUV3-door HB5-door HB4-door NBsedan2-door HBMP

22、VSUV3-door HBsedan5-door HB sedan4-door NB sedanCustomer survey results-body type preferencesCustomer RequirementsPreferences Body StyleTodayTrendVOLKSWAGEN Group China18VOLKSWAGEN Group ChinaXu JianVice President Strategy&Corporate DevelopmentVolkswagen Group ChinaChinese Car Market&Customer Requir

23、ementsAnalyst/Investor ConferenceShanghai,24 May 2006DisclaimerThis presentation contains forward-looking statements and information on the business development of the Volkswagen Group.These statements may be spoken or written and can be recognized by terms such as“expects”,“anticipates”,“intends”,“

24、plans”,“believes”,“seeks”,“estimates”,“will”or words with similar meaning.These statements are based on assumptions relating to the development of the economies of individual countries,and in particular of the automotive industry,which we have made on the basis of the information available to us and

25、 which we consider to be realistic at the time of going to press.The estimates given involve a degree of risk,and the actual developments may differ from those forecast.Consequently,any unexpected fall in demand or economic stagnation in our key sales markets,such as in Western Europe(and especially

26、 Germany)or in the USA,Brazil or China,will have a corresponding impact on the development of our business.The same applies in the event of a significant shift in current exchange rates relative to the US dollar,sterling and the yen.If any of these or other risks occur,or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect,the actual results may significantly differ from those expressed or implied by such statements.We do not update forward-looking statements retrospectively.Such statements are valid onthe date of publication and can be superceded.