氢气专题报告.docx

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1、Policy ContributionIssue n08/21 | April 2021Navigating through hydrogenBEN MCWILLIAMS (ben. mcwilliamsbruegel.org) is a Research Analyst at BruegelGEORg ZaCHMANN (georg. zachmannbruegel.org) is a Senior Fellow at BruegelExecutive summaryHydrogen is seen as a means to decarbonise sectors with greenho

2、use gas emissions that are hard to reduce, as a medium for energy storage, and as a fallback in case halted fossil-fuel imports lead to energy shortages. Hydrogen is likely to play at least some role in the European Unions achievement by 2050 of a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions target.However, pr

3、oduction of hydrogen in the EU is currently emissions intensive. Hydrogen supply could be decarbonised if produced via electrolysis based on electricity from renewable sources, or produced from natural gas with carbon, capture, and storage. The theoretical production potential of low-carbon hydrogen

4、 is virtually unlimited and production volumes will thus depend only on demand and supply cost.Estimates of final hydrogen demand in 2050 range from levels similar to todays in a low-demand scenario, to ten times todays level in a high-demand scenario. Hydrogen is used as either a chemical feedstock

5、 or an energy source. A base level of 2050 demand can be derived from looking at sectors that already consume hydrogen and others that are likely to adopt hydrogen. The use of hydrogen in many sectors has been demonstrated. Whether use will increase depends on the complex interplay between competing

6、 energy supplies, public policy, technological and systems innovation, and consumer preferences.Policymakers must address the need to displace carbon-intensive hydrogen with low-carbon hydrogen, and incentivise the uptake of hydrogen as a means to decarbonise sectors with hard-to-reduce emissions. C

7、ertain key principles can be followed without regret: driving down supply costs of low-carbon hydrogen production; accelerating initial deployment with public support to test the economic viability and enable learning; and continued strengthening of climate policies such as the EU emissions trading

8、system to stimulate the growth of hydrogen-based solutions in the areas for which hydrogen is most suitable.Recommended citationMcWilliams, B. and G. Zachmann (2021) Navigating through hydrogen, Policy Contribution 08/2021, BruegelbruegelFCEVs in the heavy goods vehicle stock (European Commission, 2

9、018). Least optimistic scenarios would see 0-3 percent FCEV deployment. Some additional indirect hydrogen demand might occur through electrically derived fuels.Light-commercial vehiclesHydrogen potential: Upper demand: 60 TWh. Medium: 15 TWh. Lower: 0 TWh2.3 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissionsVan

10、s and light commercial vehicles occupy the middle ground between passenger vehicles and heavy-duty vehicles. They tend to be slightly larger than passenger vehicles, giving hydrogen an advantage because of its higher energy density, but not comparable to heavy-duty vehicles, meaning it is still very

11、 possible that this market will be dominated by BEVs. Currently, over 90 percent oflight commercial vehicles in the EU are diesels (European Commission, 2018). The deployment of hydrogen fuel cells in this sector may likely depend on the initial success of hydrogen fuel cell deployment elsewhere (pa

12、rticularly in heavy-duty vehicles). However, similarly to passenger vehicles, current market dynamics would still suggest that BEVs will dominate this market.Transport: RailHydrogen potential: Demand: likely to be very close to zero0.11 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissionsThe strongest decarbonisa

13、tion opportunities are in electrifying rail tracks, shifting away from diesel consumption. Electrifying tracks implies significant upfront fixed costs. Tracks electrified so far are those which are the most heavily used in order to increase the ratio of returns to a fixed investment. For less-used t

14、racks, the returns are not large enough to justify the significant upfront capital costs of electrification. On these tracks, hydrogen fuel cells are an attractive option (IEA, 2019).The potential scope is still relatively small as approximately 50 percent of European tracks have already been electr

15、ified (Donat, 2020). Take up of hydrogen for trains on non-electrified tracks can be aided by falls in the costs of fuel cells, driven by deployment elsewhere. Battery electric trains are another option.Overall, rail is not likely to be a leading candidate sector for large volumes of hydrogen consum

16、ption.Transport: ShippingHydrogen potential: Upper demand: 120 TWh. Middle demand: 70 TWh. Lower demand: 20 TWh Figures estimated using the growth rates in light commercial figures to 2050 from European Commission (2018). Upper bound assumes 20 percent hydrogen fuel cell composition for 2050 light-d

17、uty fleet, medium and lower bounds assume 5 percent and 0 percent respectively. Figures estimated on the basis of hydrogen-optimistic and hydrogen-pessimistic scenarios for final energy demand in the shipping sector from European Commission (2018). These figures exclude indirect demand for hydrogen

18、that would arise if ammonia were used as a fuel. 6.6 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissionsThe maritime-fuel mix in the EU and globally is dominated by heavy fuel oil. Policy restrictions on sulphur emissions and planned controls on greenhouse gas emissions mark an attempt to move beyond heavy fuel

19、oil. The European Commission is considering including shipping in the EU emissions trading system.Hydrogen fuel cells may work for short-distance light shipping, for which power requirements are not too large. This is likely to be in competition with battery electric ships. Liquefied hydrogen, synth

20、etic fuels derived from hydrogen and ammonia (Middlehurst, 2020), have greater potential in terms of decarbonising longer distance shipping. Like hydrogen, ammonia can be used to produce energy either by combustion within an internal combustion engine, or by producing electricity through a fuel cell

21、. Biofuels are likely to be another com- petitor for hydrogen in the maritime sector.A challenge will be to transform bunkering, or fuelling, facilities, which currently store heavy fuel oils, so they can store hydrogen or hydrogen-derived fuels. Here, a global coordination problem arises as ships m

22、ust refuel in multiple locations, normally in different coun- tries. For this reason, it is quite likely that one or two fuels will become dominant. Hydrogen might be boosted by other uses in port operations. Forklift trucks are already a big adopter of hydrogen, with 25,000 deployed globally, for e

23、xample. Port hydrogen storage and distribution infrastructure will become economically more efficient with multiple end-use cases.Transport: AviationHydrogen potential: For short-distance flights, electricity and pure hydrogen could make a significant contribution Upper demand: 340 TWh. Middle deman

24、d: 180 TWh. Lower demand: 0 TWh Total energy demand &)r aviation sector in EU taken from European Commission (2018). Upper demand assumes 30 percent of demand met by direct hydrogen (ie fuel cell + combustion). Of the remaining 70 percent, jet fuel or equivalent substitutes are used. Of this demand,

25、 20 percent is assumed to be met by synthetic fuel production from hydrogen. Lower demand is zero in the case that hydrogen technology does not develop. Medium is midpoint. 3.60 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissionsFor short-distance flights of less than 3,000 kilometres (encompassing most European

26、 flights; Madrid to Helsinki is about 2950km, for example), electricity and pure hydrogen could make a significant contribution. This may be through battery or fuel cell (hydrogen) electric planes, or through direct combustion of hydrogen. Hybrid options, combining the two (electricity and hydrogen

27、combustion) are also possible.Airbus has released three concept designs for hydrogen planes which they state could enter service by 2035 (Airbus, 2020. The proposed planes are of a hybrid nature, combusting hydrogen in modified gas-turbines and producing electricity through fuel cells.Longer distanc

28、e flights require fuels with higher energy densities. Advanced biofuels and synthetic fuels Synthetic fuel broadly refers to the concept of a chemical fuel synthesis in which hydrogen is reacted with carbon from carbon dioxide in order to produce hydrocarbons with a significant commercial value (eg

29、methane). When hydrogen is produced from green electrolysis and carbon dioxide is captured from the air, this can theoretically be a zero carbon emission fuel. derived from hydrogen are the most promising decarbonisation options. Synthetic jet fuel can be a drop-in replacement for current jet fuel.

30、However; options are today far too expensive The implied mitigation cost of using power-to-liquid to produce synthetic jet fuel would be in the order of 800/ tonne CO2 (Pavlenko et al, 2019). Significant policy support and cost reductions would be required for synthetic fuels to be a realistic decar

31、bonisation option.For longer distance flights, the evolution ofbiofuels will be a key determinant for the potential of hydrogen fuels. Biofuel production is constrained by land availability Biofuels from seaweed could address this issue but are not yet commercially proven (Bellona Europa, 2020). and

32、 any constraints on biofuel production will provide a stimulus for investment into hydrogen. A further influencing factor will be the extent to which biofuels are demanded by other economic sectors.Therefore, there are two separate considerations for future hydrogen demand in aviation: directly thro

33、ugh use in a fuel cell/combustion to power short-distance flights, or indirectly producing synthetic jet fuels which are then combusted during flight. We estimate an upper bound of 210 TWh of direct hydrogen use in aviation, and 130 TWh indirect hydrogen use for producing synthetic fuels.However, av

34、iation remains firmly in the hard-to-decarbonise box, with technologies at a very immature stage of development. It will take many years of research and development before the potential of hydrogen relative to alternatives is clarified. Moreover, as one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise, aviatio

35、n is a strong contender for residual emissions in a net- zero 2050 scenario that involves significant use of negative emissions technologies. Aviation may therefore to some extent carry on burning conventional fossil fuels and emitting greenhouse gases.3.2 IndustryCurrently, over 90 percent of hydro

36、gen produced in Europe is used as a feedstock in oil refining, ammonia and methanol production (Cihlar et al, 2020). The possibility of substituting hydrogen for fossil fuels used in steel production is one of the most commonly discussed future uses for hydrogen. These four sectors together account

37、for up to 41 percent of the EUs industrial emissions Up to 41 percent with chemical sector emissions used to represent methanol and ammonia.Currently, over 90 percent of hydrogen produced in Europe is used as a feedstock in oil refining, ammonia and methanol production (Cihlar et al, 2020). The poss

38、ibility of substituting hydrogen for fossil fuels used in steel production is one of the most commonly discussed future uses for hydrogen. These four sectors together account for up to 41 percent of the EUs industrial emissions Up to 41 percent with chemical sector emissions used to represent methan

39、ol and ammonia.Chemicals 14%Chemicals 14%Other 59%Steel 16%Oil refining 11%Source: Bruegel.Chemical sector: ammonia and methanol3.2 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissions For the whole chemical sector; not just ammonia and methanol. 3.2 percent of EU greenhouse gas emissions For the whole chemical s

40、ector; not just ammonia and methanol.The ammonia and methanol sectors both require hydrogen as a feedstock. The most convenient and cost-effective source is fossil-fuel derived hydrogen.Ammonia productionHydrogen potential: Upper demand: 240 TWh. Medium: 160 TWh. Lower: 100 TWh Based on the assumpti

41、on of a 178 kilogramme hydrogen requirement per tonne of ammonia. The variation arises from different final demands for ammonia in the EU in 2050. 2015 demand: 129TWhOver 80 percent of ammonia produced worldwide is for the manufacture of fertilisers (Bazzanella and Ausfelder, 2017). Other uses are f

42、or nitric acid, pharmaceuticals and cleaning products.In Europe, natural gas is the most important feedstock. Hydrogen is extracted from natural gas (methane) before being combined with nitrogen from the air to produce ammonia, or NH3. Green hydrogen would therefore be able to directly reduce emissi

43、ons from ammonia production by eliminating the need for production of hydrogen from methane Production of hydrogen from methane emits 1.83 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of ammonia (Bazzanclla and Ausfeldcr, 2017). Such green ammonia projects are already underway For example, a 100MW wind-powered renewable

44、 hydrogen production plant in the Netherlands developed by power company Orsted and fertiliser company Yara (Durakovic, 2020).Europe currently produces 17 million tonnes of ammonia annually and the future evolution of demand is uncertain. As the global population increases, demand for ammonia-based

45、fertilisers will increase; food production must become more efficient to feed an increasing number of mouths from the same amount of land. However, public policy may drive out ammonia in favour of biological fertilisers or higher levels of organic production. The EU in 2019 updated fertiliser rules

46、to promote fertilisers based on organic materials rather than chemicals See s: covsilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/05/21/eu-adopts-new-rules-on-fertilisers/.Our analysis is based on traditional uses of ammonia, but ammonia demand could rise significantly if ammonia becomes a significant

47、 future energy carrier. Ammonia could be a preferable option for transporting the energy contained in a hydrogen atom (ammonias physical properties make it easier to transport than hydrogen). Ammonia could help in transporting energy from areas of renewable energy abundance to areas of demand. Moreo

48、ver, non-traditional demands for ammonia may arise in shipping (section 3.1) and potentially even in the power sector Ammonia can be combusted to produce electricity. On a small scale, it is currently co-fired in coal plants to produce electricity with lower emissions. Such a scenario would significantly increase hydrogen demand for ammonia production.Methanol productionHydrogen potential: Upper demand: 30TWh. Medium demand: 25TWh. Lower demand: 15TWh Based on assumption of 189 kilogrammes hydrogen per tonne of methanol. Variation arises from differences in EU final methanol demand in