2020&2021Q1新能源板块总结.docx

《2020&2021Q1新能源板块总结.docx》由会员分享，可在线阅读，更多相关《2020&2021Q1新能源板块总结.docx（21页珍藏版）》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。

1、内容目录1 .前言 6.光伏板块：光伏分化明显，龙头恒强 92.1.2020. 2021Q1龙头企业增长持续，各环节景气度明显分化922 2020年及2021Q1盈利能力稳定1123 2021 一季度应收账款、预收账款、存货增长13.风电板块：盈利拐点，零部件表现持续优异 151.1. 2020年营收和利润大幅上升，一超多强格局持续1532 2020年毛利率略有下滑、归母净利率有所提升、2021Q1毛利率同比上升，归母净利率同比上升162020第四季度应收账款增加、存货环比降低，预收账款环比减少183 .核电板块2020年整体收入、利润增长；两大龙头持续领跑 20增长势头不减，2020年收入、

2、利润皆增长204.1. 2020年和21Q1毛利率下滑、归母净利率上调20.投资建议225 .风险提不234/24表15 :光伏公司毛利率和归母净利率变动情况分析表毛利率归母净利润率代码公司名称2020同比20Q420Q4同比21Q121QI同比2020同比20Q420Q4同比21Q121Q1同比硅料17.09%-1.60%18.37%1.54%20.75%3.78%8.40%1.26%2.20%-1.91%7.98%3.58%600438.SH通威股份17.09%-1.60%18.37%1.54%20.75%3.78%8.40%1.26%2.20%-1.91%7.98%3.58%硅片23.3

3、0%-2.62%19.59%-8.99%22.57%-5.11%13.97%0.12%9.55%-3.62%13.47%-2.60%601012.SH隆基股份24.62%-4.28%19.37%-12.37%23.21%-8.66%15.94%-0.95%10.58%-7.01%15.78%-5.89%002129.SZ中环股份18.85%-0.64%18.82%-3.17%20.34%0.31%7.74%0.27%4.27%0.13%7.26%1.67%6O3185.SH上机数控27.47%-11.48%28.01%-0.26%26.54%2.23%17.65%534%17.74%7.90%

4、19.55%5.20%电池14.90%-3.17%17.66%7.31%9.71%-1.51%8.34%-1.30%12.66%8.02%3.35%-1.02%600732.SH爰旭股份14.90%-3.17%17.66%7.31%9.71%-1.51%8.34%-1.30%12.66%8.02%3.35%-1.02%组件20.58%-4.28%12.56%-11.87%17.98%-9.41%10.87%-0.56%5.49%-3.67%10.18%-3.79%601012.SH隆基股份24.62%-4.28%19.37%-12.37%23.21%-8.66%15.94%-0.95%10.5

5、8%-7.01%15.78%-5.89%002459.SZ晶澳科技16.36%-4.90%5.26%-15.98%10.78%-13.16%5.99%-0.08%2.35%-3.81%2.25%-3.97%3OO118.SZ东方日升13.65%-7.27%-1.69%-24.47%9.44%-11.39%1.47%-5.32%-9.21%-13.32%1.45%-3.64%玻璃39.70%11.62%48.34%18.40%48.49%13.68%21.94%11.54%30.52%24.34%33.57%18.29%601865.SH福莱特46.54%14.98%58.51%23.66%58

6、.24%18.36%26.02%11.10%36.41%21.71%40.74%22.85%002623.SZ亚玛顿15.96%1.98%13.16%2.26%13.71%-0.26%7.79%15.71%10.15%36.98%7.99%3.44%胶膜28.36%7.99%35.44%13.42%28.97%7.12%18.65%3.68%23.73%3.33%17.59%7.33%603806.SH福斯特28.36%7.99%35.44%13.42%28.97%7.12%18.65%3.68%23.73%3.33%17.59%7.33%逆变器23.92%-0.76%20.96%-1.50%

7、29.98%-0.55%10.73%3.39%10.69%4.35%12.43%2.19%300274.SZ阳光电源23.07%-0.74%20.29%-1.04%29.56%1.19%10.24%3.23%10.29%4.48%11.56%2.92%300763.SZ锦浪科技31.82%-2.75%27.65%-12.81%32.22%-12.44%15.26%4.15%14.72%-0.07%17.20%-3.58%运营41.51%-5.42%28.48%-10.32%39.22%680%18.20%-1.02%3.80%-1.17%17.84%1.02%601222.SH林洋能源35.1

8、9%-10.00%26.49%-9.83%40.74%-1.44%17.27%-3.67%4.48%2.73%18.03%-1.11%000591.SZ太阳能48.42%0.32%30.27%-10.04%38.30%-10.32%19.22%1.15%3.18%-3.74%17.72%2.47%设备32.47%-1.66%33.45%4.03%35.49%2.69%16.01%-0.66%15.39%1.78%21.97%6.19%300316.SZ晶盛机电36.60%1.06%41.97%11.32%36.35%2.93%22.35%2.29%25.23%10.21%30.86%12.12

9、%300751.SZ迈为股份34.02%0.21%32.55%-6.15%38.21%6.01%16.93%-0.03%17.90%2.51%19.01%3.13%601908.SH京运通32.58%-1.88%31.36%14.52%39.62%8.18%11.03%-2.40%2.26%-14.73%19.83%8.23%300724.SZ捷佳伟创26.43%-5.63%24.44%-3.58%28.97%-4.43%12.65%-2.16%7.55%1.87%17.95%0.54%835368.OC连城数控35.05%0.27%33.62%-2.99%37.62%2.33%20.09%2

10、.97%21.97%4.61%24.65%8.47%光伏公司小计22.66%-1.71%19.24%-4.17%22.88%-2.27%11.47%0.92%8.03%0.03%11.84%1.13%数据来源：Wind,2021Q1光伏板块现金流同环比大幅下降。2020年现金流为净流入311.88亿元，2019 年同期现金流为净流入277.78亿元，同比上升12.28%。2021 一季度，板块现金流净流出 32.66亿，同比下降2980.64%,与2020四季度净流入133.66亿元相比，环比降低124.32%。2020年现金流增速看：玻璃,设备运营硅片逆变器,硅料组件胶膜,电池， 2021Q

11、1现金流增速看：硅料运营玻璃设备逆变器,组件,胶膜,硅片,电池。表16 :光伏板块2019年2021 一季度经营净现金流情况（亿元）代码公司名称2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 2020Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 20Q4 同比 2019202020 年同比 2021Q1 21Q1 同比硅料 3.058.0110.591.924.345.8210.229.86413.41%23.5730.2528.31%16.85288.22%12/24东吴证券研究所600438.SH通威股份3.058.0110.591.924.345.8210.229.86413.

12、41%23.5730.2528.31%16.85288.22%硅片12.5719.7620.3453.071.7513.0271.3453.450.71%105.74139.5631.99%-7.48-526.71%601012.SH隆基股份9.3814.8815.8741.44-5.368.7559.2147.5514.74%81.58110.1535.02%-16.15-201.24%002129.SZ中环股份3.694.834.811.756.14.1411.746.61-43.72%25.0728.5914.04%8.9847.26%603185.SH上机数控-0.50.05-0.34

13、-0.121.020.130.39-0.71-486.99%-0.910.83190.61%-0.31-130.67%电池0.18-0.569.756.510.504.98-6.183.41-47.61%15.872.7182.93%-8.72-1829.52%600732.SH爱旭股份0.18-0.569.756.510.504.98-6.183.41-47.61%15.872.71-82.93%-8.72-1829.52%组件14.6022.4423.8283.72-7.7613.4065.0768.95-18%144.58139.66-3.40%-24.52-216.07%601012.

14、SH隆基股份9.3814.8815.8741.44-5.368.7559.2147.5514.74%81.58110.1535.02%-16.15-201.24%002459.SZ晶澳科技-0.30-0.06-0.0937.35-3.654.232.6919.96-46.57%36.9122.65-38.63%-10.68-192.38%300118. SZ东方日升5.527.618.034.931.260.423.741.45-70.63%26.096.86-73.69%2.3183.93%玻璃2.2-0.251.513.531.246.589.71.91-46.10%7.0019.4317

15、7.66%1.6028.97%601865.SH福莱特2.06-0.981.072.9517.048.850.13-95.73%5.1017.01233.43%1.3939.23%002623.SZ亚玛顿0.14().730.440.590.24-0.460.861.78203.96%1.892.4227.47%0.21-13.81%胶膜-1.852.680.922.59-1.373.660.85-0.42-116.17%4.352.72-37.38%-7.71-461.94%603806.SH福斯特-1.852.680.922.59-1.373.660.85-0.42-116.17%4.35

16、2.72-37.38%-7.71-461.94%逆变器-7.491.23-1.0633.55-8.879.446.6627.30-18.64%26.2434.5331.61%-24.57-177.20%3OO274.SZ阳光电源-7.230.77-1.432.65-9.48.466.0225.80-20.98%24.8030.8924.52%-24.83-164.15%3OO763.SZ锦浪科技-0.260.460.340.90.540.990.631.4966.22%1.433.65154.23%0.26-52.04%运营0.81.64154.82-1.295.9916.3912.33156

17、.14%22.2633.4250.19%-0.4465.93%601222.SH林洋能源0.39-0.181.752.05-0.383.463.765.38161.88%4.0212.23204.12%-1.99-422.62%000591.SZ太阳能0.411.8213.252.76-0.912.5212.636.95151.87%18.2421.2016.25%1.55270.49%设备-4.912.422.549.714.871.898.714.42-54.50%9.7519.74102.36%6.1822.90%3OO316.SZ晶盛机电-0.772.522.523.514.723.1

18、1.410.31-91.26%7.799.5422.54%0.38-92.04%300751.SZ迈为股份0.43-0.07-1.390.19-0.28-0.24-0.364.632361.02%-0.843.75545.57%1.10489.82%601908.SH京运通-3.142.314.092.53-1.94-0.624.341.93-23.90%5.803.71-36.09%1.53179.07%300724.SZ捷佳伟创-0.94-2.95-1.622.972.37-0.353.72-2.41-181.09%-2.543.34231.27%2.9825.57%835368.OC连城

19、数控-0.50.61-1.060.500-0.41-0.04-108.00%-0.45-0.60-32.80%0.1819.48%光伏公司小计9.7842.4967.54157.98-1.2156.04123.55133.66-15.40%277.78311.8812.28%-32.66-2980.64%数据来源：Wind,23 2021 一季度应收账款、预收账款、存货增长2021 一季度应收账款、预收账款环比增长。2020年末光伏板块应收账款为469.21亿 元，环比上升1.90%；预收账款211.87亿元，环比下降11.49%。2021年一季度末光伏板 块应收账款为509.90亿元,环比上

20、升8.67%；预收账款232.17亿元,环比上升9.58%。 其中，隆基股份21Q1应收账款83.47亿元，环比增加14.81%；预收账款48.89亿元，环 比减少2.56%。通威股份21Q1应收账款13.26亿元,环比增加24.01%,预收账款33.50 亿元，环比增加43.31%。晶澳科技21Q1预收账款11.21亿元，环比减少0.76%,锦浪科 技21Q1预收账款0.56亿元，环比增加63.33%o表17 :光伏公司应收账款、预收账款变动情况分析表(亿元)应收账款预收账款代码公司名称2020Q32020Q420Q4 环比 2021Q121Q1 环比 2020Q32020Q420Q4 环比

21、 2021Q121Q1 环比硅料 19.2410.69-44.42%13.2624.01%19.5523.3819.58%33.5043.31%13/24东吴证券研究所6OO438.SH通威股份19.2410.69-44.42%13.2624.01%19.5523.3819.58%33.5043.31%硅片8295.0615.93%106.8112.36%83.0970.03-15.71%68.22-2.59%601012.SH隆基股份59.4272.7122.36%83.4714.81%62.5350.18-19.75%48.89-2.56%002129.SZ中环股份20.7520.840.

22、42%22.065.89%17.6217.21-2.34%17.873.85%603185.SH上机数控1.831.52-17.08%1.27-16.08%2.942.65-9.89%1.46-44.83%电池0.480.44-8.06%0.96117.05%7.066.20-12.23%2.2763.32%600732.SH爰旭股份0.480.44-8.06%0.96117.05%7.066.20-12.23%2.27-63.32%组件130.51145.0911.17%161.7911.51%87.0969.76-19.90%67.53-3.19%601012.SH隆基股份59.4272.

23、7122.36%83.4714.81%62.5350.18-19.75%48.89-2.56%002459.SZ晶澳科技36.5635.12-3.94%45.7930.40%12.3111.30-8.24%11.21-0.76%300118.SZ东方日升34.5437.277.90%32.53-12.72%12.258.28-32.38%7.43-10.29%玻璃16.6218.6011.90%15.30-17.74%L181.5127.88%1.8522.76%601865.SH福莱特9.9513.8839.54%10.37-25.31%0.350.91160.51%1.2436.54%00

24、2623.SZ亚玛顿6.674.71-29.33%4.934.54%0.830.60-28.05%0.611.71%胶膜17.4623.8236.44%24.884.46%0.380.30-21.10%0.62105.39%603806.SH福斯特17.4623.8236.44%24.884.46%0.380.30-21.10%0.62105.39%逆变器64.9668.956.15%79.2814.97%21.6114.4333.25%20.6443.08%300274.SZ阳光电源62.1165.856.03%75.4214.52%21.1714.08-33.49%20.0842.58%3

25、00763.SZ锦浪科技2.843.109.14%3.8624.61%0.440.34-21.62%0.5663.33%运营127.55122.02-4.33%132.118.26%2.732.927.07%2.27-22.27%601222.SH林洋能源45.1237.82-16.17%40.757.73%1.091.111.39%1.132.26%000591.SZ太阳能82.4284.202.16%91.368.50%1.641.8210.85%1.14-37.19%设备61.0457.23-6.24%58.983.05%79.2273.53-7.18%84.1514.45%300316

26、.SZ晶盛机电12.1714.4118.38%12.30-14.60%22.2420.03-9.92%23.9119.34%300751.SZ迈为股份6.645.87-11.66%5.931.05%16.2915.98-1.88%17.9112.04%601908.SH京运通22.2521.84-1.85%23.115.84%2.891.06-63.46%1.2719.88%300724.SZ捷佳伟创16.5110.00-39.40%15.0250.09%32.9533.250.91%37.3612.37%835368.OC连城数控3.475.1247.41%2.62-48.87%4.853.

27、20-33.92%3.7115.74%光伏公司小计460.45469.211.90%509.908.67%239.38211.87-11.49%232.179.58%数据来源：Wind,光伏板块21年一季度存货有所增长。整体板块2021Q1末存货538.32亿元，环比增 加32.36%o隆基股份Q1末存货151.88亿元，环比增长32.61%。通威股份Q1末存货 39.04亿元,环比增长40.77%,晶澳科技Q1末存货70.87亿元,环比增加42.08%,锦浪 科技Q1末存货6.45亿元，环比增长40.63%o表18 ：光伏板块2020-2021Q1存货变动情况（亿元）代码公司名称2020Q3

28、2020Q420Q4环比2021Q121Q1环比硅料33.4427.73-17.07%39.0440.77%600438.SH通威股份33.4427.73-17.07%39.0440.77%硅片131.13143.049.08%185.7029.82%60I012.SH隆基股份106.04114.528.00%151.8832.61%002129.SZ中环股份20.1921.446.20%25.7720.20%603185.SH上机数控4.917.0844.10%8.0513.80%14/24东吴证券研究所电池4.524.550.73%16.17255.20%600732.SH爱旭股份4.52

29、4.550.73%16.17255.20%组件174.3179.983.26%246.0836.72%601012.SH隆基股份106.04114.528.00%151.8832.61%002459.SZ晶澳科技49.6349.880.50%70.8742.08%300118.SZ东方日升18.6415.58-16.41%23.3449.78%玻璃6.346.09-3.93%9.9062.53%601865.SH福莱特5.164.79-7.09%8.1069.03%002623.SZ亚玛顿1.181.3()9.93%1.8()38.49%胶膜8.699.7412.05%13.5739.38%6

30、03806.SH福斯特8.699.7412.05%13.5739.38%逆变器43.9543.32-1.44%52.9022.12%300274.SZ阳光电源39.5638.73-2.09%46.4519.92%300763.SZ锦浪科技4.394.584.43%6.4540.63%运营7.439.1322.92%9.837.58%601222.SH林洋能源6.217.6122.51%7.39-2.82%000591.SZ太阳能1.221.5224.98%2.4359.45%设备86.9797.6312.26%117.0119.85%300316.SZ晶盛机电19.1425.8034.82%3

31、0.9319.88%300751.SZ迈为股份18.7820.9711.69%25.2820.52%601908.SH京运通6.375.93-6.84%7.3824.42%300724.SZ捷佳伟创32.5638.2317.40%45.2518.38%835368.OC连城数控10.116.69-33.79%8.1721.98%光伏公司小计390.72406.704.09%538.3232.36%数据来源：Wind,.风电板块：盈利拐点，零部件表现持续优异3.1. 2020年营收和利润大幅上升，一超多强格局持续2020年风电板块营收增长，利润上升。风电板块共选取企业24家，2020年风电板 块

32、收入1,729.34亿元,同比增长43.36%,归母净利润132.47亿元,同比上升2129.79%。 2020年收入同比增长增幅为负的公司有6家,增幅为0-30%的公司共有4家，增幅为30% 以上的公司共有14家。归母净利润2020年同比增长增幅为负的公司共有2家，增幅为 0.30%的公司共有3家，增幅为30%以上的公司共有19家，亏损1家，扭亏3家。2021第一季度，风电板块营收增长，盈利状况较20Q1增长。风电板块24家公司21 年Q1收入312.39亿元,同比增长40.61%,归母净利润43.81亿元,同比增长144.72%。风电板块龙头表现一般，明阳智能、日月股份、中材科技、天顺风能

33、等业绩亮眼，盈 利明显增长。金风科技2020年收入562.65亿，占风电板块32.54%,同比增长47.12%, 归母净利润29.64亿，占板块利.49%,同比上升34.10%； 2021第一季度收入68.22亿, 同比增长24.78%；归母净利润9.72亿，同比增加8.62%。明阳智能2020年归母净利润同 增92.84%, 21Q1归母净利润同增73.65%o天顺风能2020年归母净利润同增40.60%, 21Q1归母净利润同增273.78%。中材科技2020年归母净利润同增48.70%, 21Q1归母净 利润同增140.02% o15/24东吴证券研究所板块内分化明显，风电零部件厂商表现

34、突出。风电主轴制造商金雷风电业绩增长迅 速，2020年、2021Q1归母净利润同增154.5%、114.28%。铸造龙头日月股份2020年、 2021Q1归母净利润同增94.11%、108.88%o天能重工2020年、2021Q1归母净利润同增 58.67%、106.20%；天顺风能2020年、2021Q1归母净利润同增40.60%、273.78%；中材 科技2020年、2021Q1归母净利润同增48.70% 140.02%；零部件厂商整体表现远超其 他。表19 ：风电公司收入和归母净利润变动情况分析表营业收入（亿元）归母净利润（亿元）代码公司名称2020同比20Q420Q4同比21Q121Q

35、1同比2020同比20Q420Q4同比21Q121Q1同比002202.SZ金风科技562. 6547. 12%192. 3442. 37%68. 2224. 78%29. 6434. 10%8.9444.48%9. 728. 62%601615.SH明阳智能224. 57114. 02%73.31123.31%43. 3445. 54%13. 7492. 84%4.41121.81%2. 5673. 65%300772.SZ运达股份114. 78129. 09%45. 2596. 56%20. 1796. 69%1.7362. 33%1.0740.81%0.43943. 22%6(X)483

36、.SH福能股份95. 57-3. 90%33. 8233. 24%28. 3874. 16%14. 9520.21%6. 84161.38%5. 50397. 14%600416.SH*ST湘电46. 96-9. 77%9.30-7.41%11.6536. 90%0. 75104.77%-0. 1697. 67%0. 30142. 28%600290.SH*ST华仪8. 39-22. 72%2.64-5. 13%0. 52-0. 06%0. 34101. 17%1.29104.41%-0. 5638. 47%000862.SZ银星能源12. 02-11.40%2.90-21. 95%3.312

37、9. 24%0. 3418. 57%0. 04-20. 27%0. 751316. 11%002080.SZ中材科技187. 1137. 68%57.9142. 75%39.4136. 40%20. 5248. 70%5. 0439. 60%5.81140. 02%002009.SZ天奇股份35.9213. 77%10. 4814. 69%7.2635. 28%0.61-15. 20%0. 081830. 62%0. 40759. 66%002531.SZ天顺风能80.5134. 94%26. 0920. 63%13. 9063. 46%10. 5040. 60%2.4119. 94%4. 9

38、7273. 78%300129.SZ泰胜风能36. 0462.41%13. 6998. 03%3. 5337. 50%3.49127. 02%1.23556. 06%0. 76416. 88%002359.SZ*ST北讯3.5122.51%0. 00100. 00%0. 00-100. 00%-6. 5650. 80%0. 00100. 00%0. 00100. 00%002122.SZ*ST天马7. 22-38. 80%1.95-34. 06%1. 788.64%1.60109. 67%0. 60105.51%0. 141020. 44%300443.SZ金雷股份14. 7731.37%4.2441.93%3. 8548. 58%5.22154. 50%1.86184. 99%1.31114. 28%002487.SZ大金重工33. 2597. 08%13. 07167. 07%6. 0250. 96%4.65164. 75%1.56141. 14%0. 7751.53