股债双涨可持续.docx

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1、目录央行降息猝不及防，股债连续两日上涨1降息周期能够带来股债双牛吗？3降息对国内债市的影响3降息对A股的影响4先债后股的逻辑5资金面市场回顾5市场回顾及观点7可转债市场回顾7可转债市场周观点7股票市场8转债市场9造纸、汽车零部件以及周期板块。高弹性组合建议重点关注参林（百姓）转债、和而转债、国祯转债、洲明转债、水晶 转债、启明转债、哈尔转债、太极转债、南威转债以及金融转债。稳健弹性组合建议关注海尔转债、玲珑转债、蓝思转债、亚泰转债、中来转债、久立 转2和银行转债。风险因素：市场流动性出现大幅波动，宏观经济不如预期，无风险利率大幅波动，正 股股价超预期波动。I股票市场表1:市场概况代码简称收盘价

2、日变，ft （%） 成交额（亿）成交额同比变化（）000001.SH 上证指数2,933.990.851557.717.67399001.SZ深证成指9,889.751.802625.5519.59399300.SZ 沪深 3003,947.041.00399005.SZ 中小板指6,367.112.01399006.SZ 创业板指1,729.082.77000016.SH 上证 503,000.750.66资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部表2：行业涨跌幅榜每日涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（%）每bl跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）传媒4.63银行-0.04建材2.67非银行金融0.59通信2.24石油石化

3、0.69轻工制造2.23食品饮料0.77有色金属2.02交通运输0.86资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部表3：概念板块涨跌幅榜每日涨幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）每日跌幅刖五板块日涨跌幅（）网络游戏6.57证金概念0.82IP流量变现4.72沪股通500.85文化传媒概念3.75北部湾自贸区0.92在线旅游3.66粤港澳自贸区0.95移动互联网3.59国家队0.97资料来源：Wind,中信证券研究部转债市场表4：可转债市场名称收盘价日变化（）中证转债指数334.460.49平价指数89.180.73转债指数110.610.54资料来源：Wind,表5：可转债个券中信证券研究部名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌

4、幅（%）成交额（千万）110030.SH格力转债105.990.161.37110031.SH航信转债113.560.010.11110033.SH国贸转债112.310.260.13110034.SH九州转债106.25-0.200.61110038.SH济川转债106.300.050.05110041.SH蒙电转债115.000.210.29110042.SH航电转债115.130.090.12110043.SH无锡转债103.90-0.112.39110044.SH广电转债129.262.885.47110045.SH海澜转债100.350.170.69113008.SH电气转债112.

5、600.240.96113009.SH广汽转债112.690.930.23113011.SH光大转债121.400.5128.29113012.SH骆驼转债100.750.601.51113013.SH国君转债119.430.022.27113014.SH林洋转债98.170.150.43113016.SH小康转债97.310.060.21113017.SH吉视转债98.820.651.79113019.SH玲珑转债127.81-0.030.27113502.SH嘉澳转债97.520.370.04113503.SH泰晶转债113.611.422.46113504.SH艾华转债108.410.4

6、50.04113505.SH杭电转债99.850.350.38113508.SH新凤转债103.470.520.17113509.SH新泉转债111.392.630.85113510.SH再升转债105.050.480.02113511.SH千禾转债128.00-0.680.40113514.SH威帝转债102.860.430.11113515.SH高能转债115.500.790.17113516.SH苏农转债108.280.260.37113517.SH曙光转债115.130.480.92113518.SH顾家转债122.020.440.66123002.SZ国祯转债122.000.000.

7、81123003.SZ蓝思转债133.200.2311.60123004.SZ铁汉转债99.890.120.26名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）123007.SZ道氏转债104.500.110.41123009.SZ星源转债112.001.350.30123010.SZ博世转债102.10-0.290.11123011.SZ德尔转债112.152.295.75123012.SZ万顺转债115.931.170.12123013.SZ横河转债101.180.460.02123014.SZ凯发转债107.980.350.04123015.SZ蓝盾转债112.001.870.871270

8、03.SZ海印转债104.040.120.18127004.SZ模塑转债96.20-0.120.35127005.SZ长证转债115.700.431.16127006.SZ敖东转债104.460.320.14127007.SZ湖广转债108.001.741.93128010.SZ顺昌转债104.20-0.030.14128012.SZ辉丰转债99.05-0.060.43128013.SZ洪涛转债102.020.202.96128014.SZ永东转债99.250.000.06128015.SZ久其转债96.220.030.41128016.SZ雨虹转债123.800.941.92128017.S

9、Z金禾转债115.000.880.13128018.SZ时达转债96.32-0.220.13128019.SZ久立转2119.37-0.151.74128020.SZ水晶转债123.720.013.54128021 .SZ兄弟转债111.891.730.22128022.SZ众信转债100.580.480.45128023.SZ亚太转债94.380.060.11128025.SZ特一转债108.990.590.48128026.SZ众兴转债93.69-0.020.27128028.SZ赣锋转债107.001.042.71128029.SZ太阳转债120.870.470.14128030.SZ天

10、康转债171.291.3616.58128032.SZ双环转债95.510.020.08128033.SZ迪龙转债100.450.560.03128034.SZ江银转债108.00-0.050.86128035.SZ大族转债108.900.290.52128036.SZ金农转债111.570.060.39128037.SZ岩土转债95.71-0.150.23128038.SZ利欧转债125.861.170.95128039.SZ三力转债111.510.841.20128040.SZ华通转债108.300.900.46128041 .SZ盛路转债150.503.161.47128042.SZ凯中

11、转债100.900.660.21128043.SZ东音转债187.000.540.66128044.SZ岭南转债100.100.020.68128045.SZ机电转债113.00-0.181.77名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128046.SZ利尔转债102.980.570.33113520.SH百合转债125.632.252.28128048.SZ张行转债112.83-0.421.33113519.SH长久转债107.510.180.25123016.SZ洲明转债117.090.290.96113521.SH科森转债105.311.172.55110047.SH山鹰转债109

12、.560.512.03113522.SH旭升转债119.752.050.45113020.SH桐昆转债119.501.532.93110046.SH圆通转债124.000.804.53128049.SZ华源转债100.070.070.25123017.SZ寒锐转债123.193.793.66127008.SZ特发转债195.901.042.97113523.SH伟明转债125.922.684.58128050.SZ钧达转债104.600.451.84110048.SH福能转债118.080.140.91113524.SH奇精转债102.340.560.33128051 .SZ光华转债104.0

13、0-0.100.24113525.SH台华转债103.00-0.210.70110049.SH海尔转债128.842.2916.87128052.SZ凯龙转债160.601.651.13110050.SH佳都转债124.242.860.30123018.SZ溢利转债112.900.710.23113526.SH联泰转债127.650.850.23113527.SH维格转债93.03-1.041.61128053.SZ尚荣转债104.090.130.75128054.SZ中宠转债114.310.280.34113021.SH中信转债108.050.473.92113528.SH长城转债99.33

14、0.080.06128056.SZ今飞转债99.090.030.35123019.SZ中来转债110.80-0.021.52110051.SH中天转债105.370.330.47123021 .SZ万信转2124.601.474.76113022.SH浙商转债106.720.240.56123020.SZ富祥转债118.111.120.17110052.SH贵广转债116.741.480.98128057.SZ博彦转债112.191.120.89128059.SZ视源转债124.131.640.38113529.SH绝味转债155.21-1.235.54128055.SZ长青转2114.700

15、.970.33110053.SH苏银转债110.800.1616.50127011.SZ中鼎转2105.92-0.080.15110055.SH伊力转债110.120.020.20128058.SZ拓邦转债112.310.100.39123022.SZ长信转债125.601.301.74名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）110054.SH通威转债120.901.603.64128060.SZ中装转债150.62-3.078.62110056.SH亨通转债108.800.451.59123023.SZ迪森转债99.200.480.85123024.SZ岱勒转债100.250.000.

16、05113530.SH大丰转债107.390.552.50123025.SZ精测转债109.19-0.420.46113531.SH百姓转债126.821.490.36113533.SH参林转债150.092.934.86113532.SH海环转债104.100.190.15128063.SZ未来转债104.710.110.04128062.SZ亚药转债92.77-0.030.91128061 .SZ启明转债129.450.490.68113024.SH核建转债102.85-0.050.37127012.SZ招路转债108.170.282.90110057.SH现代转债108.82-0.070

17、.20113534.SH鼎胜转债102.100.450.94113025.SH明泰转债109.101.231.29128064.SZ司尔转债97.750.350.16113026.SH核能转债104.480.151.60110058.SH永鼎转债98.82-0.140.56128065.SZ雅化转债96.950.520.36128066.SZ亚泰转债106.160.410.19127013.SZ创维转债111.000.000.59128067.SZ一心转债112.200.090.77113535.SH大业转债99.210.000.20113536.SH三星转债104.400.480.26128

18、068.SZ和而转债131.204.477.61123026.SZ中环转债106.900.600.24123027.SZ蓝晓转债115.551.771.02113537.SH文灿转债103.610.520.54113028.SH环境转债119.50-0.070.14113027.SH华锌转债100.320.050.35128069.SZ华森转债102.21-0.010.08123028.SZ清水转债102.320.560.18113538.SH安图转债161.482.465.93128070.SZ智能转债100.30-0.010.17113539.SH圣达转债127.46-3.376.1411

19、3540.SH南威转债116.891.972.54113541.SH荣晟转债102.810.590.44113542.SH好客转债107.140.480.18113543.SH欧派转债120.000.214.07123029.SZ英科转债115.340.510.08128073.SZ哈尔转债105.100.390.08123030.SZ九洲转债103.580.270.20名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（千万）128071 .SZ合兴转债107.201.230.38128072.SZ翔鹭转债105.200.190.07123031.SZ晶瑞转债122.403.9812.19113544.

20、SH桃李转债120.44-0.341.24128074.SZ游族转债117.716.0518.42123032.SZ万里转债100.50-0.010.50128075.SZ远东转债104.420.351.06128077.SZ华夏转债111.030.940.63113545.SH金能转债103.400.4011.20128076.SZ金轮转债104.110.101.17128078.SZ太极转债128.291.372.38110059.SH浦发转债104.840.89178.77资料来源:Wind,中信证券研究部表6：可转债正股名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（）成交额（亿）600185.SH格力地

21、产4.930.610.15600271 .SH航天信息21.481.231.84600755.SH厦门国贸7.071.290.39600998.SH九州通13.431.971.01600566.SH济川药业23.161.400.98600863.SH内蒙华电2.570.000.50600372.SH中航电子13.311.370.29600908.SH无锡银行5.340.190.35600831.SH广电网络8.772.931.28600398.SH海澜之家7.821.030.37601727.SH上海电气4.691.300.43601238.SH广汽集团11.422.611.34601818.

22、SH光大银行4.33-0.692.88601311.SH骆驼股份9.021.580.47601211.SH国泰君安16.960.412.38601222.SH林洋能源4.452.530.34601127.SH小康股份12.801.510.17601929.SH吉视传媒2.043.550.38601966.SH玲珑轮胎21.50-0.921.46603822.SH嘉澳环保22.471.310.07603738.SH泰晶科技16.552.031.05603989.SH艾华集团18.761.190.45603618.SH杭电股份5.332.110.25603225.SH新凤鸣11.651.660.2

23、2603179.SH新泉股份17.372.361.23603601 .SH再升科技6.681.210.15603027.SH千禾味业23.28-0.601.19603023.SH威帝股份4.221.690.11603588.SH高能环境9.760.830.74603323.SH苏农银行5.050.400.36名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）603019.SH中科曙光34.341.216.00603816.SH顾家家居40.510.101.38300388.SZ国祯环保9.921.430.41300433.SZ蓝思科技13.930.229.32300197.SZ铁汉生态3.030.6

24、60.21300409.SZ道氏技术11.422.700.61300568.SZ星源材质24.245.390.67300422.SZ博世科10.231.790.49300473.SZ德尔股份39.052.930.46300057.SZ万顺新材5.933.130.84300539.SZ横河模具6.962.050.10300407.SZ凯发电气7.401.370.15300297.SZ蓝盾股份5.625.051.67000861 .SZ海印股份2.641.150.10000700.SZ模塑科技3.802.150.27000783.SZ长江证券6.400.790.68000623.SZ吉林敖东15.

25、701.230.51000665.SZ湖北广电4.892.090.21002245.SZ澳洋顺昌3.622.260.16002496.SZ辉丰股份2.980.680.16002325.SZ洪涛股份3.101.310.20002753.SZ永东股份7.701.180.04002279.SZ久其软件6.042.370.79002271 .SZ东方雨虹24.641.654.33002597.SZ金禾实业18.681.140.65002527.SZ新时达4.950.810.12002318.SZ久立特材9.03-1.853.20002273.SZ水晶光电13.820.587.37002562.SZ兄弟

26、科技4.850.410.45002707.SZ众信旅游5.353.880.90002284.SZ亚太股份4.603.370.10002728.SZ特一药业16.290.560.06002772.SZ众兴菌业6.600.610.06002460.SZ赣锋锂业25.458.3016.45002078.SZ太阳纸业8.782.091.42002100.SZ天康生物13.34-1.045.26002472.SZ双环传动5.211.360.06002658.SZ雪迪龙6.562.180.04002807.SZ江阴银行4.400.460.25002008.SZ大族激光36.650.775.09002548

27、.SZ金新农9.10-0.330.53002542.SZ中化岩土3.781.070.14002131.SZ利欧股份2.161.412.15002224.SZ三力士6.181.810.82002758.SZ华通医药10.704.190.47名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）002446.SZ盛路通信10.353.194.84002823.SZ凯中精密8.681.050.11002793.SZ东音股份12.220.410.44002717.SZ岭南股份4.600.220.21002013.SZ中航机电6.470.940.58002258.SZ利尔化学11.632.650.29603313

28、.SH梦百合17.902.460.93002839.SZ张家港行5.801.050.64603569.SH长久物流10.341.170.14300232.SZ洲明科技8.350.970.79603626.SH科森科技8.615.390.82600567.SH山鹰纸业3.190.950.64603305.SH旭升股份32.561.431.23601233.SH桐昆股份13.233.682.34600233.SH圆通速递12.681.930.70002787.SZ华源控股6.191.640.10300618.SZ寒锐钻业61.507.224.80000070.SZ特发信息10.792.571.72

29、603568.SH伟明环保22.073.421.16002865.SZ钧达股份20.801.963.33600483.SH福能股份9.031.120.18603677.SH奇精机械12.642.760.67002741 .SZ光华科技11.211.540.16603055.SH台华新材6.560.610.05600690.SH海尔智家18.333.338.56002783.SZ凯龙股份10.703.080.52600728.SH佳都科技9.052.031.54300381 .SZ溢多利8.522.160.16603797.SH联泰环保10.971.570.34603518.SH锦泓集团6.58

30、2.170.10002551 .SZ尚荣医疗4.521.570.07002891.SZ中宠股份23.130.300.51601998.SH中信银行6.11-0.161.20603897.SH长城科技17.351.230.11002863.SZ今飞凯达5.392.860.13300393.SZ中来股份13.99-1.131.07600522.SH中天科技8.320.851.35300168.SZ万达信息16.341.555.41601878.SH浙商证券8.581.060.87300497.SZ富祥股份17.331.880.37600996.SH贵广网络8.252.100.58002649.SZ

31、博彦科技9.452.381.23002841 .SZ视源股份87.223.071.51603517.SH绝味食品44.39-1.072.54002391.SZ长青股份7.761.310.10名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）600919.SH江苏银行6.98-0.713.85000887.SZ中鼎股份8.100.620.36600197.SH伊力特15.471.110.52002139.SZ拓邦股份4.943.560.66300088.SZ长信科技7.491.635.61600438.SH通威股份12.314.944.79002822.SZ中装建设9.37-3.002.3560048

32、7.SH亨通光电16.000.314.46300335.SZ迪森股份5.511.470.09300700.SZ岱勒新材19.662.130.27603081 .SH大丰实业16.680.483.51300567.SZ精测电子36.97-1.912.80603883.SH老百姓72.433.981.67603233.SH大参林54.814.402.54603817.SH海峡环保6.381.750.06002631.SZ德尔未来7.081.430.18002370.SZ亚太药业6.992.641.08002439.SZ启明星辰34.410.912.45601611.SH中国核建6.791.190.

33、22001965.SZ招商公路8.091.250.14600420.SH现代制药8.721.280.50603876.SH鼎胜新材13.361.370.17601677.SH明泰铝业10.860.740.28002538.SZ司尔特4.531.800.31601985.SH中国核电4.801.050.66600105.SH永鼎股份3.743.310.29002497.SZ雅化集团5.922.070.68002811.SZ亚泰国际14.811.790.13000810.SZ创维数字11.150.002.85002727.SZ一心堂24.031.780.53603278.SH大业股份8.621.5

34、30.08603578.SH三星新材19.061.650.06002402.SZ和而泰12.367.017.06300692.SZ中环环保12.281.990.14300487.SZ蓝晓科技34.313.881.38603348.SH文灿股份16.651.220.37601200.SH上海环境11.171.360.42601020.SH华钮矿业8.671.640.31002907.SZ华森制药14.690.270.15300437.SZ清水源10.292.180.13603658.SH安图生物108.582.431.78002877.SZ智能自控7.811.030.17603079.SH圣达生

35、物39.93-7.141.35603636.SH南威软件10.892.250.69603165.SH荣晟环保17.402.900.24名称简称收盘价（元）涨跌幅（%）成交额（亿）603898.SH好莱客15.01-0.330.16603833.SH欧派家居104.391.221.46300677.SZ英科医疗16.273.110.36002615.SZ哈尔斯5.380.750.06300040.SZ九洲电气5.311.720.08002228.SZ合兴包装4.132.740.45002842.SZ翔鹭鸨业11.762.530.37300655.SZ晶瑞股份24.058.142.54603866

36、.SH桃李面包47.35-0.110.83002174.SZ游族网络16.9010.035.91300591.SZ万里马5.531.470.15002406.SZ远东传动5.151.380.06002928.SZ华夏航空11.022.990.68603113.SH金能科技10.271.180.34002722.SZ金轮股份14.840.340.27002368.SZ太极股份36.000.064.26600000.SH浦发银行12.23-0.083.59资料来源:Wind,中信证券研究部插图目录图1：近两日（11月18日、19日）股市走势2图2：今年9月以来股市走向2图3：近两日（11月18日、19日）债市走势2图4今年九月以来T1912走势2图5：2008年以来中国三次降息3图6：货币宽松与A股的相关性并不强5图7： 2018年1月1日至2019年11月19日公开市场操作和到期监控6图8： 2017年1月1日至2019年11月19日流动性投放和回笼统计6图9： 2019年11月19日人民币对各币种汇率当前值相对