咨询管理战略组织项目麦肯锡工具评估 Study_megatrends_suppliers2000.pdf

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1、- 1 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionNine Mega-Trendsre-shape the Automotive Supplier Industry A trend study to 2010 Updated long version - Detroit, July 2000Roland Berger & Partners - Strategy ConsultantsBarcelona Beijing Berlin Brussels Bucharest Budapest Buenos Aires Detroit Dsseldorf Frankfurt

2、Hamburg Kiev Lisbon LondonMadrid Milan Moscow Munich New York Paris Prague Riga Rome So Paulo Shanghai Stuttgart Tokyo Vienna Warsaw Zurich- 2 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionPreface There is no doubt in the views of our interviewees, the change is the only thing thatis certain even in the future.

3、 We have not dared to attempt a prediction of the futurenor to be complete in our trend analysis we hope to raise some critical issuesassisting you in thinking about your agenda 2010. The automotive industry continues to reinvent itself with a focus on perceivedcustomer needs driving OEMs to radical

4、ly adapt their marketing/sales and serviceefforts and OES following suit in entering former OEM territory as well as targetingfinal consumers. For those suppliers which want to stand out as winners in thefuture there is a clear need to adapt their business system accordingly. In thisstudy we talk ab

5、out trend impact on the supplier business system. Over the past decade, Roland Berger & Partners have conducted more than 600projects for more than 200 clients worldwide in the automotive and supplier industry.We are looking very much forward to further support our clients to meet thechallenge 2010.

6、 Lets talk!- 3 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionContentPageA.Study approach: 70 interviews with key decision makers worldwide 3complemented by our expertise in the industryB.Present situation: The global top-100 suppliers achieved 11% sales growth 8and 10% total shareholder return over the last thr

7、ee yearsC.Nine mega-trends will shape the automotive supplier industry in 17 the next decadeD.Conclusion: What should be on the supplier CEOs agenda 2010 to win 82 the future - 4 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionThe objective and approach of the studySource: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supp

8、lier trend studyStudy approach 70 structured,personalinterviews withkey decisionmakers of thetop-100 suppliersand selectedOEMs Complementedby Roland Berger& Partnersresearch andprojectexperience1 Identification of keytrends in thesupplierindustry to 2010 Identification oftrend impact on thesupplier

9、businesssystem2 Assessment of gapbetween thesuccess factors ofthe 1990s and the2000s Identification ofneed for change inautomotive supplierindustry and thecorresponding CEOagenda3 Case studies onselected issues(follow up on thisstudy)4Fact FindingAnalysisSetting up the CEOs agenda 2010Follow up- 5 -

10、DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionIndustryIndustryHeadquarter location of company1)Headquarter location of company1)Roland Berger & Partners conducted a total of 70 interviews withcompanies in the triad with a clear focus on the supplier industrySource: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier tr

11、end studyDuration of study:April to July 1999Duration of study:April to July 1999USA10CompaniesEurope31 CompaniesJapan23CompaniesServicecompanies,industry experts:6 interviewsOEMs:12 InterviewsAutomotivesuppliers:52 interviews74%9%17%1) Total of 70 interviews- 6 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionSiz

12、e of suppliers interviewedSales, US$ bnSize of suppliers interviewedSales, US$ bnTotal sales volumeUS$ bnTotal sales volumeUS$ bnFocus on the global leaders of the supplier industry the interviewsrepresent 17% of worldwide market volume1) OEM and aftermarket business14%12%34%21%12%7% $ 10 bn $ 0.5 b

13、nGlobal market volume automotive supplierindustry:US$ 930 bn1)Total turnover ofsuppliersinterviewed:US$ 155 bn(Euro 134 bn)Total: 52 suppliersSource: CLEPA; Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier trend study$ 1-2.5 bn$ 5-10 bn$ 2.5-5 bn 70% share of automotive salesCAGR automotive sales 199519

14、98 %Totalshareholderreturn19956/1999%6340%3642-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%100%45678910111213141617192021222324252627282930323435373839404446474849505154575866687172737475778284858892949799100-20%-10%0% = 10%1)20%30%60% = 11%LabinalTextronVDOSiemens Aut.BridgestoneLinamarIntermetEatonLearRieterFeder

15、al MogulFaureciaHayes LemmerzDuraAutomotiveSystemsIllinoisToolworksTower AutomotiveJCIBorg-WarnerMagnaThyssen BuddContinentalShare ofautomotivesales 70%Share ofautomotivesales 70% share of automotive sales 2) Defined as % of sales outside home continent based on group data3) Subject to different acc

16、ounting proceduresSource: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier trend studyNorth American (50)CAGRautomotive salesTotal shareholder return1)Share ofinternational sales2)Japanese (12)European (38)7.5%12.0%31%3.6%0.3%3)20%13.5%10.3%34%Headquarter locationof supplier(no. of companies)No. of comp

17、anies as basis of calculation5021411268381123- 13 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionThe global top-100 suppliers: Key financials (1)Source: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier trend study1) Asset data based on group 2) Automotive data based in Coating Division 3) Total sales = Alcoa Inc.Ran

18、-kingCompanyCountryTotal Sales in 1000 Euro 1998Total Share-holder Return 1995-6/1999Automotive sales in 1000 EURO 1998Share of total sales 1998CAGR 1995-1998 automo-tive salesROS 1998 automo-tiveNet Asset Turnover 1998Return on Net Assets 19981Delphi Automotive Systems Corp.USA25,385,04125,385,0411

19、00%-3%-0.78%311.31%-2.42%2Bosch GmbHGermany25,508,76416,116,24063%16%5.66%181.44%10.27%3Visteon Automotive SystemsUSA15,832,33615,832,336100%4%6.36%279.28%17.75%4Michelin GroupFrance12,376,7289%12,376,728100%7%6.84%299.72%20.49%5Dana Corp.USA11,142,00020%11,142,000100%6%4.73%222.21%10.51%6Goodyear C

20、orp.USA11,254,57915%9,712,70486%-1%5.08%138.64%7.04%7Denso Corp.Japan9,077,0906%8,262,75091%1%5.23%127.92%6.69%8Johnson Controls Inc.USA11,219,54829%8,257,55974%25%5.72%148.63%8.50%9Lear Corp.USA8,074,83023%8,074,830100%24%3.78%223.87%8.46%10Navistar InternationalUSA7,028,37429%6,800,18597%6%15.27%1

21、63.75%25.01%11Continental AGGermany6,683,98220%6,683,982100%9%4.64%129.02%5.98%12TRW Inc.USA10,594,70515%6,417,79261%4%7.88%118.25%9.31%13Mitsubishi Electric Corp.Japan18,924,263-7%6,163,74733%11%3.92%92.87%3.64%14Valeo SAFrance5,966,218-1%5,966,218100%16%7.10%157.36%11.18%15LucasVarity PLCUK6,910,5

22、605,942,10886%22%9.96%170.40%16.98%16Magna International Inc.Canada5,533,04512%5,533,045100%24%7.73%162.16%12.53%17Bridgestone/Firestone Inc.Japan5,138,03822%5,015,09898%14%15.62%66.05%10.32%18ZF Friederichshafen AGGermany5,140,9794,061,49579%12%6.73%179.20%12.06%19Federal Mogul Corp.USA3,983,22025%

23、3,983,220100%31%4.15%74.90%3.11%20Faurecia SAFrance3,902,82517%3,902,825100%32%5.13%206.51%10.59%21Magneti Marelli SpAItaly3,745,440-3%3,745,440100%8%1.48%420.69%6.24%22Meritor Automotive Inc.USA3,419,2577%3,419,257100%7%7.79%324.81%25.32%23Mannesmann VDO AGGermany3,308,89756%3,308,897100%24%2.07%19

24、5.30%4.04%24GKN PLCUK5,471,16838%3,292,14960%5%11.03%217.56%24.00%25Aisin Seiki Co. Ltd.Japan3,440,790-1%3,192,33593%2%1.63%138.28%2.26%26Freudenberg and NOK GroupUSA5,348,160-8%3,119,76058%41%27Autoliv Inc.Sweden3,109,688-12%3,109,688100%35%10.15%113.49%11.52%28Thyssen Budd Automotive GmbHGermany3,

25、084,38512%3,084,385100%8%3.95%193.42%7.63%29PPG Industries Inc.USA6,694,11414%3,083,21446%7%15.78%116.23%18.35%30Alcoa Fujikura Ltd.USA13,673,28429%2,996,75222%7%4.91%96.61%4.74%31Tenneco Inc.USA6,771,6622,885,33243%9%7.66%95.46%7.31%32Siemens AG AutomotiveGermany59,648,33338%2,838,0805%21%3.05%280.

26、00%8.55%33Yazaki Corp.Japan3,571,8172,746,72577%1%0.99%185.60%1.84%34United Technologies Corp.USA23,374,13342%2,640,20811%-1%5.71%168.23%9.60%West EuropeEast EuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia, PacificJapannot specified1581227420601581443253227571240825265027649325996628658107616528748334151011560

27、14761453234597924416775208058232652783818440385842173610616121148525743Sales 1998 by region % (based on group sales)1)1)1)1)1)2)3)1)1)- 14 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionThe global top-100 suppliers: Key financials (2)Source: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier trend studyRan-kingCompany

28、CountryTotal Sales in 1000 Euro 1998Total Share-holder Return 1995-6/1999Automotive sales in 1000 EURO 1998Share of total sales 1998CAGR 1995-1998 automo-tive salesROS 1998 automo-tiveNet Asset Turnover 1998Return on Net Assets 199835Cummins Engine Corp.USA5,585,2627%2,609,90247%3%3.42%155.56%5.31%3

29、6Arvin Industries Inc.USA2,227,24115%2,227,241100%8%6.83%237.20%16.20%37Tomkins PLCUK2,226,11310%2,226,113100%40%10.35%290.71%30.08%38AlliedSignal Inc.USA13,484,49436%2,175,81016%-29%4.34%126.73%5.50%39Illinois Tool Works Inc.USA5,034,30235%2,146,84543%45%19.28%121.05%23.34%40Textron Automotive Corp

30、.USA8,631,03934%2,143,72125%16%7.44%108.48%8.07%41Mannesmann Sachs AGGermany2,131,0942,131,094100%3%6.84%191.66%13.10%42Detroit Diesel Corp.USA2,006,0953%2,006,095100%3%3.34%234.61%7.83%43Mahle GmbHGermany1,925,1301,925,130100%15%7.13%142.04%10.12%44Sommer Allibert SAFrance3,435,5625%1,900,78755%25%

31、6.84%164.16%11.23%45American Axle & Manufacturing Inc.USA1,818,8901,818,890100%1%2.46%173.97%4.28%46Pilkington PLCUK3,631,69821%1,750,89248%0%4.47%175.34%7.84%47Eaton Corp.USA5,905,26018%1,731,91229%22%10.91%132.82%14.49%48Krupp Hoesch Automotive GmbHGermany12,719,16012%1,692,20513%7%7.58%127.80%9.6

32、8%49Borg-Warner Inc.USA1,637,25021%1,637,250100%11%9.62%132.50%12.75%50Tower Automotive Inc.USA1,636,96447%1,636,964100%102%9.57%121.71%11.64%51Collins & Aikman Corp.USA1,627,1500%1,627,150100%26%5.39%163.28%8.81%523M Automotive Co.USA13,389,1191,503,72411%3%18.26%109.90%20.07%53Benteler AGGermany2,

33、326,2121,479,85664%21%2.52%191.65%4.82%54Kolbenschmidt-Pierburg AGGermany1,460,3951%1,460,395100%6%4.20%183.03%7.69%55MascoTech Inc.USA1,457,8191,457,819100%-1%5.96%88.27%5.26%56Behr GmbH & Co.Germany1,538,1381,454,00995%11%4.26%247.35%10.54%57Solvay SABelgium7,451,00015%1,431,00019%3%5.24%126.33%6.

34、62%58Labinal SAFrance2,322,92625%1,383,65560%14%6.85%147.31%10.10%59Companie de Saint Gobain GroupFrance17,674,0881,378,2148%12%9.96%60Panasonic Co.USA1,340,6051,340,605100%-1%61New Venture Gear Inc.USA1,337,0401,337,040100%4%62BTR Automotive GroupUSA4,912,2851,241,66425%8%7.18%274.04%19.67%63Breed

35、Technologies Inc.USA1,234,801-42%1,234,801100%51%-4.67%85.77%-4.01%64Hutchinson SAFrance1,947,4831,226,91363%26%65Hella KG Hueck & Co.Germany1,212,9241,212,924100%7%258.27%66Hayes Lemmerz International Inc.USA1,131,13614%1,131,136100%33%2.47%72.15%1.79%67Brose GmbH & Co. KGGermany1,114,9601,114,9601

36、00%22%68TI GroupUK3,200,7667%1,105,74935%1%11.01%136481323555105347266437711273796922731611292606030100148462-614779955197740264816107124417661268614070302287009913036142049510751968466407030West EuropeEast EuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia, PacificJapannot specifiedSales 1998 by region % (based

37、on group sales)1)1)1)1)1)1)1)1)1)1)1)1) Asset data based on group 2) Automotive data based in Coating Division 3) Total sales = Alcoa Inc.- 15 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionThe global top-100 suppliers: Key financials (3)Source: Roland Berger & Partners-Automotive supplier trend study69Mark IV A

38、utomotive Inc.Sweden1,969,9061,077,65455%18%10.98%111.92%12.28%70Compagnie Plastic Omnium GroupFrance1,372,1701,054,21377%15%0.88%71Calsonic Corp.Japan1,040,086-15%1,040,086100%-4%2.67%253.41%6.76%72NHK Spring Co. Ltd.Japan1,040,0797%1,040,079100%13%2.97%116.04%3.45%73Rieter Automotive Management AG

39、Switzerland1,626,00026%1,009,56062%25%6.71%74Excel Industries Inc.USA985,936-20%985,936100%23%2.85%249.55%7.11%75Standard Products Co.USA966,0435%966,043100%0%4.43%200.40%8.87%76Desc SA de CVMexico2,099,744872,47942%21%15.24%87.84%13.38%77Linamar Corp.Canada889,84532%855,61196%22%8.16%192.02%15.66%7

40、8Siebe Automotive PLCUK841,491841,491100%6%79Peregrine Inc.USA837,878837,878100%47%80Webasto AGGermany827,098827,098100%8%4.50%204.35%9.20%81Kostal GmbH & Co. KGGermany861,560810,88094%6%82Intermet Corp.USA750,16720%750,167100%16%8.99%173.48%15.59%83Findlay Industries Inc.USA719,328719,328100%27%84N

41、SK Ltd.Japan2,243,662-3%699,39931%-21%2.93%92.26%2.70%85Donnelly Corp.USA680,3857%680,385100%26%2.67%277.49%7.41%86W. Karmann GmbHGermany668,976668,976100%6%87Woodbridge GroupCanada659,606659,606100%5%88Dura Automotive Systems Inc.USA659,13121%659,131100%43%9.64%89.55%8.63%89Guardian Industries Corp

42、.USA641,779641,779100%6%90Harvard Industries Inc.USA615,106615,106100%3%-5.03%187.45%-9.42%91Takata Corp.Japan615,062615,062100%6%4.08%133.27%5.44%92Stanley Electric Co. Ltd.Japan969,594-10%597,69362%0%1.49%153.26%2.28%93Steyr-Daimler-Puch AG & Co. KGAustria1,023,836564,56555%10%6.56%180.48%11.83%94

43、Kiekert AGGermany519,1664%519,166100%10%11.05%188.70%20.85%95AP Automotive Systems Inc.USA475,986475,986100%-13%96Marmon GroupUSA467,964467,964100%7%97Stoneridge Inc.USA449,086-4%449,086100%22%11.26%91.89%10.35%98A.G. Simpson Co.Canada442,471442,471100%8%9.97%175.80%17.53%99Showa Corp.Japan675,883-9

44、%414,99161%-10%6.20%182.76%11.34%100Tokico Ltd.Japan540,287-16%409,36376%-3%-1.86%203.33%-3.78%6040841331619263021583049278151227710393229553653110100015841338581345510101077582377015850188201148329134222780955412118021123813Ran-kingCompanyCountryTotal Sales in 1000 Euro 1998Total Share-holder Retur

45、n 1995-6/1999Automotive sales in 1000 EURO 1998Share of total sales 1998CAGR 1995-1998 automo-tive salesROS 1998 automo-tiveNet Asset Turnover 1998Return on Net Assets 1998West EuropeEast EuropeNorth AmericaSouth AmericaAsia, PacificJapannot specifiedSales 1998 by region % (based on group sales)Tota

46、l/average13%6%172%10%9%1)298,243,8281)1)1)1)1)1) Asset data based on group 2) Automotive data based in Coating Division 3) Total sales = Alcoa Inc.- 16 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionSix core capabilities have been crucial for automotive suppliers in the1990sSource: Roland Berger & Partners-Autom

47、otive supplier trend study123456Customer relationmanagementInnovationmanagementCost managementIntegrationmanagementGlobal deliverymanagementCooperationmanagement Dedicated customer organization Manage key processes at customer interface Deal-winning account strategies Provide leading-edge technology

48、 Efficient and effective R&D and Simultaneous Engineering processes Access to premium OEMs as entry point for innovations Scale: achieve top-3 position in relevant products Optimized production network with low-cost locations Lean structures Simultaneous Engineering capabilities Ability to integrate

49、 systems/modules within and beyond own component scope JIT-delivery capabilities Global presence at OEM locations through subsidiaries or partnerships Global launch coordination Ability to manage project-based cooperations Organizational structures to allow focused partnerships M&A and Post-Merger I

50、ntegration management- 17 -DTW-0090-97000-06-01_long versionContentPageA.Study approach: 70 interviews with key decision makers worldwide 3complemented by our expertise in the industryB.Present situation: The global top-100 suppliers achieved 11% sales growth 8and 10% total shareholder return over t