股利政策-毕业论文外文文献翻译.docx

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1、Dividend policy作者：Eugene F. Brigham. Joel F.Houston刊物：Fundamentals of financial，2004，（8）:23-25.Abstract Dividend policy p lays an important role in business decision-ma king in the stock is the companys core financial issues. Thus the dividend distribution policy has been the companys stakeholders s

2、hares are closely watched. On the basis of the text of the introduction and dividend policy basic types of traditional and modern theories of dividend policy elaborate on, focusing on the status of the dividend distribution policy of listed companies, the dividend policy choice should consider facto

3、rs were analyzed, and deal with the problems raised corresponding constructive comments. Keywords: Dividend theory; dividend distribution; policy recommendations 1. Introduction Profitable companies regularly face three important questions: (1) How much of its free cash flow should it pass on to sha

4、reholders? (2) Should it provide this cash to shareholders by raising the dividend or by repurchasing stock? (3) Should it maintain a stable, consistent payment policy, or should it let the payments vary as conditions change?When deciding how much cash to distribute to shareholders, finance manager

5、must keep in mind that the firms objective is to maximize shareholder value. Consequently, the target pay rate ratiodefine as the percentage of net income to be paid out as cash dividendsshould be based in large part on investors preference for dividends versus capital gains: do investors prefer (1)

6、 to have the firm distribute income as cash dividends or (2) to have it either repurchase stock or else plow the earnings back into the business, both of which should result in capital gains? This preference can be considered in terms of the constant growth stock valuation model:If the company incre

7、ases the payout ration, the raises.This increase in the numerator, taken alone, would cause the stock price to rise. However, ifis raised, then less money will be available for reinvestment, that will cause the expected growth rate to decline, and that will tend to lower the stocks price. Thus, any

8、change in payout policy will have two opposing effects. Therefore, the firms optimal dividend policy must strike a balance between current dividends and future growth so to maximize the stock price. In this section, we examine three theories of investor preference: (1)the dividend irrelevance theory

9、, (2)the bird-in-the-hand theory ,and(3) the tax preference theory. 2.dividend theoryDIVIDEND IRRELEVANCE THEORY It has been argued that dividend policy has no effect on either the price of a firms stock or its cost of capital. If dividend policy has no significant effects, then it would be irreleva

10、nce .The principal proponents of dividend irrelevance theory are Merton Miller and Franco Modigliani(MM).They argued that the firms is determined only by its basic earning power and its business risk. In other words, MM argued that the value of firm depends only on the income produced by its assets,

11、 not on how this income is split between dividends and retained earnings. To understand MMs argument that dividend policy is irrelevance, recognize that any shareholder can in theory construct his or her own dividend policy .If investors could buy and sell shares and thus create their own dividend p

12、olicy without incurring costs, then the firms dividend policy would truly be irrelevant. Note, though, that investors who want additional dividends must incur brokerage cost to sell shares, and investors who do not want dividends must first pay taxes on the unwanted dividends and then incur brokerag

13、e cost to purchase shares with the after-tax dividends. Since taxes and brokerage costs certainly exist, dividend policy may well be relevant.In developing their dividend theory, MM made a number of assumptions especially the absence of taxes and brokerage costs. Obviously, tax and brokerage costs d

14、o exist, so the MM irrelevance theory may not be true. However, MM argued that all economic theories are based on simplifying assumptions, and that the validity of a theory must be judged by empirical test, not by the realism of its assumptions.BIRD-IN-THE-HAND THEORYThe principal conclusions of MMs

15、 dividend irrelevance theory is that dividend policy does not affect the required rate of return on equity, Ks. This conclusion has been hotly debated in the academic circles .In particular, Myron Gordon and John Lintner argued that Ks decreases as the dividend payout is increase because investor ar

16、e less certain of receiving the capital gains which are supposed to result from retaining earnings than they are of receiving dividend payments MM disagreed .They argued that Ks independent of dividend policy, which implies that investors are indifferent between D1/P0 and g and, hence, between divid

17、ends and capital gains. MM called the Gordon-Lintner argument the bird-in-the-hand fallacy because, in MMs view, most investors plan to reinvest their dividends in the stock of the same or similar firms, and, in any event, the riskiness of the firms cash flows to investors in the long run is determi

18、ned by the riskiness of operating cash flows, not by dividend payout policy.TAX PREFERENCE THEORYThere are three tax-related reasons for thinking that investors might prefer a low dividend payout to a high payout: (1) Recall from Chapter II that long-term capital gains are taxed at a rate of 20 perc

19、ent, whereas dividend income is taxed at effective rates which go up to 39.6 percent. Therefore, wealthy investors might prefer to have companies retain and plow earnings back into the business. Earnings growth would presumably lead to stock prices increases, and thus low- taxed capital gains would

20、be substituted for higher-taxed dividends. (2)Taxes are not paid on the gains until a stock is sold. Due to time value effects, a dollar of taxes paid in the future has a lower effective cost than a dollar paid today. (3) If a stock is held by someone until he or she dies, no capital gains tax is du

21、e at all-the beneficiaries who receive the stock can use the stocks value on the death day as their cost basis and thus completely escape the capital gains tax.Because of these tax advantages, investors may prefer to have companies retain most of their earnings. IF so, investors would be willing to

22、pay more for low-payout companies than for otherwise similar high- payout companies.There three theories offer contradictory advice to corporate managers, so which, if any, should we believe? The most logical way to proceed is to test the theories empirically. Many such tests have been conducted, bu

23、t their results have been unclear. There are two reasons for this(1)For a valid statistical test, things other than dividend policy must be held constant; that is, the sample companies must differ only in their dividend policies, and(2)we must be able to measure with a high degree of accuracy each f

24、irms cost of equity. Neither of these two conditions holds: We cannot find a set of publicly owned firms that differ only in their dividend policies, nor can we obtain precise estimates of the cost of equity.Therefore, no one can establish a clear relationship between dividend policy and the cost of

25、 equity. Investors in the aggregate cannot be seen to uniformly prefer either higher or lower dividends. Nevertheless, individual investors do have strong preferences. Some prefer high dividends, while others prefer all capital gains. These differences among in dividends help explain why it is diffi

26、cult to reach any definitive conclusions regarding the optimal dividend payout. Even so ,both evidence and logic suggest that investors prefer firms that follow a stable, predictable dividend policy. 3.the relevant recommendationsBecause we discuss how dividend policy is set in practice, we must exa

27、mine two other theoretical issues that could affect our view toward dividend policy: (1)the information content, or signaling, hypothesis and(2) The clientele effects. MM argued that investors reactions to change in dividend policy do not necessarily show that investors prefer dividends to retained

28、earnings. Rather, they argued that price change following dividend actions simply indicate that there is an important information, or signaling, content in dividend announcements.The clientele effects to the extent that stockholders can switch, a firm can change from one dividend payout policy to an

29、other and then let stockholders who do not like the new policy sell to other investors who do. However, frequent switching would be inefficient because of(1)brokerage costs,(2)the likelihood that stockholders who are selling will have to pay capital gains taxes, and (3) a possible shortage of invest

30、ors who like the firms newly adopted dividend policy. Thus, management should be hesitant to change its dividend policy, because a change might cause current stockholders to sell their stock, forcing the stock price down. Such a price decline might be temporary, but it might also be permanent if few

31、 new investors are attracted by the new dividend policy, then the stock price would remain depressed. Of course, the new policy might attract an even larger clientele than the firm had before, in which case the stock price would rise.In many ways, our discussion of dividend policy parallels our disc

32、ussion of capital structure: we presented the relevant theories and issues, and we listed some additional factors that influence dividend policy, but we did not come up with any hard-and-fast guidelines that manager can follow. It should be apparent from our discussion that dividend policy decisions

33、 are exercises in informed judgment, not decisions that can be based on precise mathematical model.In practice, dividend policy is not an independent decision the dividend decisions is made jointly with capital structure and capital budgeting decisions. The underlying reason for this joint decisions

34、 process is asymmetric information, which influences managerial actions in two ways: 1, In general, managers do not want to issue new common stock. First, new common stock involves issuance cost - - commissions, fees, and so on-and those costs can be avoided by using retained earnings to finance the

35、 firms equity needs. Also, asymmetric information causes investors to view common stock issues as negative signals and thus lowers expectations regarding the firms future prospects. The end result is that the announcement of a new stock issue usually leads to a decrease in the stock prices. Consider

36、ing the total costs involved, including both issuance and asymmetric information costs, managers strongly prefer to use retained earnings as their primary source of new equity.2, Dividend changes provide signal about managers beliefs as to their firms future prospects, Thus, dividend reductions, Or

37、worse yet, omissions, generally have a significant negative effect on a firms stock price . Since managers recognize this, they try to set dollar dividends low enough so that there is only a remote chance that the dividend will have to be reduce in the future. Of course, unexpectedly large dividend

38、increases can be used to provide positive signals. the actual payout ratio in any. The dividend decision is made during the planning process, so there is uncertainty about future investment opportunities and operating cash flows. Thus, the actual payout ratio in any year will probably be above or be

39、low the firms long-range target. However, the dollar dividend should be maintained, or increase as planned policy simply cannot be maintained. A steady or increasing steam of dividends over the long run signals that the firms financial condition is under control. Further, investors uncertain is decr

40、eased by stable dividend, so a steady dividend stream reduces the negative effect of a stock issue, should one become absolutely necessary.In general, firms with superior investment opportunities should set lower payouts, hence retain more earnings, than firms with poor investment opportunities. The

41、 degree of uncertainty also influences the decision. If there is a great deal of uncertainty in the forecasts of free cash flows, which are defined here as the firms operating cash flows minus mandatory equity investments, then it is best to be conservative and to set a lower current dollar dividend

42、. Also, firms with postponable investment opportunities can afford to set a higher dollar dividend, because in times of stress investments can be postponed for a year or two, thus increasing the cash available for dividends. Finally, firms whose cost of capital is largely unaffected by change in the

43、 debt ratio can also afford to set a higher payout ratio, because they can, in times of stress, more easily issue additional debt to maintain the capital budgeting program without having to cut dividends or issue stock.Firms have only one opportunity to set the opportunity payment from scratch. Ther

44、efore, todays dividend decisions are constrained by policies that were set in the past, hence setting a policy for the next five years necessarily begins with a review of the current situation. Although we have outlined a rational process for managers to use when setting their firms dividend policie

45、s, dividend policy still remains one of the most judgmental decisions that firms must make. For this reason, dividend policy is always set by the board of directors the financial staff analyzes the situation and makes a recommendation, but the board makes the final decision. 股利政策 1 引言盈利的公司常常面临 三个重要问

46、题：（1）自由现金流量 有多少应该分配给股东？（2）怎么样把 这些现金分配给股东，是通过增发股利还是回购本公司股票？（3）需要保持 一个不变的股利支付政策，还是让股利支付随着各年度的情况不同而不同？当财务经理 决定应该付多少现金给股东时，他一定要记住，公司的目标是股东价值最大化，目标支付率作为现金股利支付的净收益占总收益的百分比，应该是根据投资者更偏好的股利还是资本利得来决定。投资者是偏好（1）以现金股利形式分配收益；还是偏好（2）回购股票或者吧收益重新投资到公司？这两者都会导致资本利得。这方面的偏好可以通个稳定增产的股票价值评估模型来考虑：如果公司 增加了股利支付率 就增加,单独分子可能会导

47、致股票价格上升。然而,如果提高了,就会减少钱用在再投资，会引起预期 增长率下降,那就有可能降低股票的价格。因此,股利政策有任何改变将有两个相反的结果。所以,公司最优股利政策是必须在现在行 使的股利和未 来增长之间取得一个平衡，使股票价格达到最高。在这一部分文献中，我们将分析评价了投资者偏好的三个理论：（1）股利无关理论；（2）“一鸟在手”理论；（3）税收偏好理论。2 股利理论2.1股利无关理论有很多人认为，股利分配政策对公司股票价值和资本成本都是没有任何影响。如果股利政策没有显著的影响，那这个股利政策就是不相关。股利无关理论的主要提出的人是默顿H米勒和佛朗哥莫迪哥 莱尼。公司价值只是由于基本盈

48、利能力和经营风险所决定。换一句话说，MM理论作者认为，公司价值只是由其资产所创造的收益来决定的，而不是由于股利和留存收益之间是如何分割来决定的。要如何理解MM理论关于股利政策无关的观点，我们需要认识到，一个股东在理论上都是能构建自己的股利政策。但是如果投资者能够随意的购买或者卖出股票，他就能够实现他所期望的鼓励政策，而不用支付额外的费用。因此，鼓励政策是不相关的。要注意的是，那些想要得到额外股东在卖掉股票是必须支付一定的费用；而那些不想要额外股利的股东不想为那部分鼓 励交税而且用税后股利购买额外的股份还得支付交易费用。既然税收和交易费用的存在是必然的，那么鼓励政策也很可能是相关的。在建立股利理

49、论时，MM理论作了一系列的假设，尤其是关于不存在税收和交易费用的假设。显然，税收和交易费用是确实存在的，因此MM股利无关理论可能是不正确的。但是MM理论提出，所有的理 论都是基于简化了的假设，理论的正确与否必须经过实践的检验，而不是其假设的真实性。2.2“一鸟在手”理论MM股利无关理论的主要结论是：鼓励政策不影响要求的权益收益率Ks。该观点在学术界引起广泛争论。迈伦林特纳就认为，随着股利支付的增加，Ks会下降，因为虽然可以假定留存收益会带来 相应的资本利得，但是与得到支付的股利相比，投资者获得收益的确定性要小。MM理论对这有反对意见。他们认为，Ks与股利政策是没有关系的，这就说投资者对于D1P0和资本利得是没有偏好。MM理论认为，高顿和林特纳为“一鸟在手”理论的假象 所迷惑，因为在MM理论看来，大部分投资者都打算将其股利所得再投资于同一家或类似的企业。而且在任何情况下，对于投资者 来说，从长远来看，公司现金流量的风险是由该公司的经营现金流量风险来决定的，却不是由股利政策