数据：粮食生产影响因素.doc

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1、摘要：根据 19852005 年我国粮食作物的产量，Y 为粮食产量，X1 为国家财政用于农业 支出（亿元） ，X2 为有效灌溉面积（千公顷） ，X3 为化肥施肥量（万吨） 、X4 为农业机械 总动力（万千瓦） 、X5 为受灾面积（千公顷、X6 为粮食作物播种面积（千公顷） ，根据 Y 与 X1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6 六个变量之间的联系，分析影响我国粮食作物产量的因素。OLSDependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 10:58Sample: 1985 2005Included observations:

2、21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. X10.5819011.5817790.3678780.7181X2-0.3006510.189465-1.5868430.1334X37.9002170.58442813.517860.0000X4-0.2093980.102884-2.0352890.0599X5-0.1256180.039335-3.1935460.0060obsYX1X2X3X4X5X6198537910.8153.6244035.91775.820912.544365108845198639151.2184.244225.

3、81930.62295047135110933198740473.3195.72444031999.32483642086111268198839408214.0744375.92141.52657550874110123198940755265.9444917.22357.12806746991112205199044624307.8447403.12590.328707.738474113466199143529.3347.5747822.12805.129388.655472112314199244265.8376.0248590.12930.230308.451333110560199

4、345648.8440.4548727.93151.931816.648829110509199444510.1532.9848759.13317.933802.555043109544199546661.8574.9349281.23593.736118.145821110060199650453.5700.4350381.43827.938546.946989112548199749417.1766.3951238.53980.742015.653429112912199851229.51154.7652295.64083.745207.750145113787199950838.6108

5、5.7653158.44124.348996.149981113161200046217.51231.5453820.34146.452573.654688108463200145263.71456.7354249.44253.855172.152215106080200245705.81580.7654354.84339.457929.947119103891200343069.51754.4554014.24411.660386.55450699410200446946.92337.6354478.44636.664027.937106101606200548402.22450.31550

6、29.34766.268397.838818104278X60.4314250.0578757.4544670.0000R-squared0.975997 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared0.967996 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression697.2301 Akaike info criterion16.16706Sum squared resid7291948. Schwarz criterion16.46550Log likelihood-163.7542 Durbin-Watso

7、n stat1.787582相关系数检验： YX1X2X3X4X5X6 Y 1.000000 0.514158 0.741558 0.791528 0.587146 0.038143 0.089944 X1 0.514158 1.000000 0.894436 0.884700 0.978903-0.205490-0.743651 X2 0.741558 0.894436 1.000000 0.983379 0.952616 0.076823-0.539675 X3 0.791528 0.884700 0.983379 1.000000 0.940878 0.068340-0.507767 X

8、4 0.587146 0.978903 0.952616 0.940878 1.000000-0.071327-0.697197 X5 0.038143-0.205490 0.076823 0.068340-0.071327 1.000000 0.135237 X6 0.089944-0.743651-0.539675-0.507767-0.697197 0.135237 1.000000对 Y 关于 x1、x2、x3、x4、x5、x6 建立一元回归模型，如下表：Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:

9、08Sample: 1985 2005Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C42534.971196.80435.540450.0000X12.8294921.0828502.6130040.0171R-squared0.264358 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared0.225640 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression3429.594 Akaike info criterion19

10、.20866Sum squared resid2.23E+08 Schwarz criterion19.30814Log likelihood-199.6910 F-statistic6.827788Durbin-Watson stat0.389017 Prob(F-statistic)0.017104Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:12Sample: 1985 2005Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-Statist

11、icProb. C8062.1257683.7811.0492390.3072X20.7413980.1538794.8180480.0001R-squared0.549908 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared0.526219 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression2682.627 Akaike info criterion18.71737Sum squared resid1.37E+08 Schwarz criterion18.81685Log likelihood-194.5324 F

12、-statistic23.21358Durbin-Watson stat0.568557 Prob(F-statistic)0.000120Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:09Sample: 1985 2005Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C34211.261979.81617.280020.0000X33.1764090.5626395.6455580.0000R-squared0.

13、626516 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared0.606859 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression2443.687 Akaike info criterion18.53080Sum squared resid1.13E+08 Schwarz criterion18.63027Log likelihood-192.5734 F-statistic31.87233Durbin-Watson stat0.701036 Prob(F-statistic)0.000019Dependent Va

14、riable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:10Sample: 1985 2005Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C38670.552115.53418.279340.0000X40.1563660.0494573.1616690.0051R-squared0.344741 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared0.310253 S.D. dependent var3897

15、.367S.E. of regression3236.802 Akaike info criterion19.09295Sum squared resid1.99E+08 Schwarz criterion19.19243Log likelihood-198.4760 F-statistic9.996148Durbin-Watson stat0.470836 Prob(F-statistic)0.005137Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:09Sample: 1985 2005Included

16、observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C43687.347790.2525.6079490.0000X50.0267430.1607320.1663820.8696R-squared0.001455 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared-0.051100 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression3995.705 Akaike info criterion19.51422Sum squared resid3.03

17、E+08 Schwarz criterion19.61370Log likelihood-202.8993 F-statistic0.027683Durbin-Watson stat0.358114 Prob(F-statistic)0.869614Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/09/08 Time: 12:10Sample: 1985 2005Included observations: 21VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C35499.4024087.581.

18、4737640.1569X60.0866720.2201730.3936520.6982R-squared0.008090 Mean dependent var44975.35Adjusted R-squared-0.044116 S.D. dependent var3897.367S.E. of regression3982.407 Akaike info criterion19.50755Sum squared resid3.01E+08 Schwarz criterion19.60703Log likelihood-202.8293 F-statistic0.154962Durbin-Watson stat0.280084 Prob(F-statistic)0.698221