层次分析法---文献翻译(共12页).doc

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1、精选优质文档-倾情为你奉上888大学毕业设计(论文)文献翻译题 目 层次分析法 院、系(部) 计算机科学与技术学院 专业及班级 计科0903班 姓 名 888 指 导 教 师 888 日 期 2013年3月 Analytic Hierarchy Process The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a structured technique for helping people deal with complex decisions. Rather than prescribing a correct decision, the AHP helps

2、people to determine one that suits their needs and wants. Based on mathematics and psychology, it was developed by Thomas L. Saaty in the 1970s and has been extensively studied and refined since then. The AHP provides a comprehensive and rational framework for structuring a problem, for representing

3、 and quantifying its elements, for relating those elements to overall goals, and for evaluating alternative solutions. It is used throughout the world in a wide variety of decision situations, in fields such as government, business, industry, healthcare, and education.Several firms supply computer s

4、oftware to assist in using the process.Users of the AHP first decompose their decision problem into a hierarchy of more easily comprehended sub-problems, each of which can be analyzed independently. The elements of the hierarchy can relate to any aspect of the decision problemtangible or intangible,

5、 carefully measured or roughly estimated, well- or poorly-understoodanything at all that applies to the decision at hand.Once the hierarchy is built, the decision makers systematically evaluate its various elements, comparing them to one another in pairs. In making the comparisons, the decision make

6、rs can use concrete data about the elements, or they can use their judgments about the elements relative meaning and importance. It is the essence of the AHP that human judgments, and not just the underlying information, can be used in performing the evaluations.The AHP converts these evaluations to

7、 numerical values that can be processed and compared over the entire range of the problem. A numerical weight or priority is derived for each element of the hierarchy, allowing diverse and often incommensurable elements to be compared to one another in a rational and consistent way. This capability

8、distinguishes the AHP from other decision making techniques.In the final step of the process, numerical priorities are derived for each of the decision alternatives. Since these numbers represent the alternatives relative ability to achieve the decision goal, they allow a straightforward considerati

9、on of the various courses of action.Uses and applicationsWhile it can be used by individuals working on straightforward decisions, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is most useful where teams of people are working on complex problems, especially those with high stakes, involving human perceptions and

10、 judgments, whose resolutions have long-term repercussions. It has unique advantages where important elements of the decision are difficult to quantify or compare, or where communication among team members is impeded by their different specializations, terminologies, or perspectives.Decision situati

11、ons to which the AHP can be applied include: Choice - The selection of one alternative from a given set of alternatives, usually where there are multiple decision criteria involved. Ranking - Putting a set of alternatives in order from most to least desirable Prioritization - Determining the relativ

12、e merit of a set of alternatives, as opposed to selecting a single one or merely ranking them Resource allocation - Apportioning resources among a set of alternatives Benchmarking - Comparing the processes in ones own organization with those of other best-of-breed organizations Qualitymanagement - D

13、ealing with the multidimensional aspects of quality and quality improvement The applications of AHP to complex decision situations have numbered in the thousands, and have produced extensive results in problems involving planning, Resource allocation, priority setting, and selection among alternativ

14、es. Other areas have included forecasting, toreotal quality management, business process re-engineering ,quality function deployment， and the Balanced Scorecard.Many AHP applications are never reported to the world at large, because they take place at high levels of large organizations where securit

15、y and privacy considerations prohibit their disclosure. But some uses of AHP are discussed in the literature. Recently these have included: Deciding how best to reduce the impact of global climate change (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) Quantifying the overall quality of software system(Microsoft corp

16、oration) Selecting university faculty(Bloomsburg University of Pennsy) Deciding where to locate offshore manufacturing plants(University of Cambridge) Assessing risk in operating cross-country prtroleum pipelines(American Society of Civil Engineers) Deciding how best to manage U.S. watersheds(U.S. D

17、epartment of Agriculture)AHP is sometimes used in designing highly specific procedures for particular situations, such as the rating of buildings by historic significance. It was recently applied to a project that uses video footage to assess the condition of highways in Virginia. Highway engineers

18、first used it to determine the optimum scope of the project, then to justify its budget to lawmakers. AHP is widely used in countries around the world. At a recent international conference on AHP, over 90 papers were presented from 19 countries, including the U.S., Germany, Japan, Chile , Malaysia,

19、andNepal. Topics covered ranged from Establishing Payment Standards for Surgical Specialists, to Strategic Technology Roadmapping, to Infrastructure Reconstruction in Devastated Countries. AHP was introduced in China in 1982, and its use in that country has expanded greatly since thenits methods are

20、 highly compatible with the traditional Chinese decision making framework, and it has been used for many decisions in the fields ofeconomics,energy,management,environment,traffic,agriculture, industry, and the military.Though using AHP requires no specialized academic trainning, the subject is widel

21、y taught at the university levelone AHP software provider lists over a hundred colleges and universities among its clients. AHP is considered an important subject in many institutions of higher learning, including schools of engineering and . AHP is also an important subject in the quality field, an

22、d is taught in many specialized courses including Six Sigma, Lean Six Sigma, and QFD. In China, nearly a hundred schools offer courses in AHP, and many doctoral students choose AHP as the subject of their research and dissertations. Over 900 papers have been published on the subject in that country,

23、 and there is at least one Chinese scholarly journal devoted exclusively to AHP.ImplementationAs can be seen in the examples that follow, using the AHP involves the mathematical synthesis of numerous judgments about the decision problem at hand. It is not uncommon for these judgments to number in th

24、e dozens or even the hundreds. While the math can be done by hand or with a calculator, it is far more common to use one of several computerized methods for entering and synthesizing the judgments. The simplest of these involve standard spreadsheet software, while the most complex use custom softwar

25、e, often augmented by special devices for acquiring the judgments of decision makers gathered in a meeting room.Steps in using the processThe procedure for using the AHP can be summarized as:1. Model the problem as a hierarchy containing the decision goal, the alternatives for reaching it, and the c

26、riteria for evaluating the alternatives. 2. Establish priorities among the elements of the hierarchy by making a series of judgments based on pairwise comparisons of the elements. For example, when comparing potential real-estate purchases, the investors might say they prefer location over price and

27、 price over timing. 3. Synthesize these judgments to yield a set of overall priorities for the hierarchy. This would combine the investors judgments about location, price and timing for properties A, B, C, and D into overall priorities for each property. 4. Check the consistency of the judgments. 5.

28、 Come to a final decision based on the results of this process. CriticismsThe AHP is now included in most operations research and management science textbooks, and is taught in numerous universities; it is used extensively in organizations that have carefully investigated its theoretical underpinnin

29、gs. While the general consensus is that it is both technically valid and practically useful, the method does have its critics.In the early 1990s a series of debates between critics and proponents of AHP was published in Management Science and The Journal of the Operational Research Society. These de

30、bates seem to have been settled in favor of AHP.Occasional criticisms still appear. A 1997 paper examined possible flaws in the verbal (vs. numerical) scale often used in AHP pairwise comparisons. Another from the same year claimed that innocuous changes to the AHP model can introduce order where no

31、 order exists. A 2006 paper found that the addition of criteria for which all alternatives perform equally can alter the priorities of alternatives. An in-depth paper discussing the academic criticisms of AHP was published in Operations Research in 2001.Most of the criticisms involve a phenomenon ca

32、lled rank reversal, discussed in the following section.Rank reversalMany people hear about rank reversal and assume that there is some sort of proven principle about it that needs to be upheld in making decisions. That assumption has led to much misunderstanding of AHP and other decision making tech

33、niques. In actuality, rank reversal is a complex matter about which there are many conflicting ideas and opinions. This section offers a simplified explanation of the situation.Decision making involves ranking alternatives in terms of criteria or attributes of those alternatives. It is an axiom of s

34、ome decision theories that when new alternatives are added to a decision problem, the ranking of the old alternatives must not change. But in the real world, adding new alternatives can change the rank of the old ones. These rank reversals do not occur often, but the possibility of their occurrence

35、has substantial logical implications about the methodology used to make decisions, the underlying assumptions of various decision theories, etc.A simple example will demonstrate the phenomenon of rank reversal:Consider a pretty girl in a small town. Shes having a party next week, and she wants to bu

36、y a dress that will impress her guests. She visits the towns only dress store and goes to the rack of party dresses. There are five such dresses, and after long consideration she ranks them by desirability as follows:RankStyleColorPrice1Style ABlue$1092Style AGreen$1093Style BRed$1194Style CYellow$9

37、95Style DOff-White$149Now imagine that she enters the back room and sees the stores entire inventory of dresses. The dresses she has looked at in Styles B, C, and D are the only ones of their kind, but there are four more Style A dresses in green and eight more Style A dresses in blue. In the langua

38、ge of decision science, these dresses are copies of the existing alternatives. In our one-store small town scenario, theres a reasonable chance that one or more party guests would buy and wear one of the copies. When made aware of these new alternatives, our fashion-conscious girl might rank her cho

39、ices in a different order. Considering her great embarrassment if a guest were to wear the same dress that she did, she might rank her choices like this:RankOld RankStyleColorPrice13Style BRed$11924Style CYellow$9935Style DOff-White$14942Style AGreen$10951Style ABlue$109Notice that the rankings of t

40、he two Style A dresses have reversed (since there are more copies of the blue dress than of the green one). Not only that, but Style A has gone from the most preferred style to the least preferred. Rank reversal has occurred. Axioms of decision theories have been violated. Scholars and researchers c

41、an cry foul, or impugn the method by which the girl has made her choice, but there is no denying that in the world of our example, ranks have been reversed. There is no doubt that the reversal is due to the introduction of additional alternatives that are no different from the existing ones.The abov

42、e is but one example of rank reversal. Rank reversal can also occur when additional alternatives are added/removed that are not copies of the original alternatives (e.g., red and yellow dresses in completely different styles). Another example of rank reversal occurred in the 2000 U.S. presidential e

43、lection. Ralph Nader was an irrelevant alternative, in that he was dominated by both the Democrat and Republican candidates. However, since he attracted more votes from those who would have voted Democrat rather than Republican, his presence caused the ranks to reverse. Put another way, if Nader wer

44、e not in the race, it is widely accepted that Al Gore would have won.There are two schools of thought about rank reversal. One maintains that new alternatives that introduce no additional attributes should not cause rank reversal under any circumstances. The other maintains that there are both situa

45、tions in which rank reversal is not reasonable as well as situations where they are to be expected. The current version of the AHP can accommodate both these schools its Ideal Mode preserves rank, while its Distributive Mode allows the ranks to change. Either mode is selected according to the proble

46、m at hand.层次分析法层次分析法（AHP）是一种帮助人们处理复杂决策的结构化技术，比起一种指定的“正确”的方法，层次分析法能帮助人们决定哪一种是更适合他们的需求。基于数学和心理学，Thomas L. Saaty于1970年深入研究了层次分析法，从此以后，层次分析法被广泛的学习和重定义。AHP为构建一个问题，描述和权衡它的因素，相关那样的因素达到整体的目标，评估交互的解决方法提供了一种广泛的和理性的框架结构。在这个世界中，它被广泛的应用在各种决策形式：像政府，商业，工业，医疗保健和教育等各种领域。一些公司提供计算机软件来支持这些过程。AHP的用户一开始把他们的决策分解成更简单的包含各种子

47、问题的层次结构，每一种子问题都能够单独的分析。这种层次架构的各种因素关系到决策问题的各种方面，包括明确的和不明确的问题，仔细的估量和粗略的估计，好的和不好的任何事情。这些方面的问题用于当前的决策。一旦层次结构建立，决策者系统评估其各个组成部分，比较彼此在对。在作出这一比较，决策者可以使用的具体数据内容，也可以利用其判断的因素的相对意义和重要性。这是AHP的本质，人类的判断，而不仅仅是基本的信息，可用于履行的评价。层次分析法评价转换这些数值，可处理和比较在整个范围内的问题。数值重量或优先源自各层次的每个因素，允许让不同的而且往往不可加以比较的要素以一个以合理和一致的方式进行比较。这是AHP区分其

48、他决策方法的能力。在最后一步的过程中，数值的优先权得出每一个可供选择的决定。由于这些数字表示以实现决策的目标相对能力，他们可以从各种复杂的行动中找出直接的方案。使用和应用虽然它可用于个人从事简单的决定，层次分析法（ AHP ）是最有用的地方是一个团队正在努力处理复杂的问题，尤其是那些高风险，涉及人权的认识和判断，其决议具有长期影响。它具有独特的优势在于其重要组成部分的决定都是难以量化或比较的，或在团队成员之间阻碍了他们难以沟通的不同专业，术语，或观点。AHP在以下决策情况下使用：选择由一组给定的替代品中选择一个替代品，通常当市场上有多个决策标准参与。排序从最不理想的方案中实施了一套替代方案。优先级确定一套替代方案的相对优点，而不