管理概論Chapter4.pptx

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1、管理概論管理概論Chapter 4Foundation of Decision Making1硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Learning Outcomes Describe the steps in decision-making process.Identify the assumptions of rational decision-making model.Identify the two types of decision problems and the two types of decisions that are used

2、 to solve them.Define heuristics and explain how they affect the decision-making process.Describe the advantages and the disadvantages of group decision. 2硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 The Decision-Making ProcessIdentification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of

3、weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness3硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 1：Identification of a problemA discrepancy between an existing and desired state of af

4、fairs.Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness4硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 2：Id

5、entification of decision criteriaA manager has to assess what factors are relevant in his decision.Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the altern

6、ativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness5硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 3：Allocation of weights to criteriaIt is necessary to allocate weights to the items listed in step 2 in order to give them their relative priority in the decision. Identification of a problemIdentification of de

7、cision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness6硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 4：Development of alternativesNo attempt is made in this s

8、tep to appraise these alternatives, only to list them. Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness7硬商

9、品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 5：Analysis of alternativesEach alternative is evaluated by appraising it against the criteria. Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of a

10、n alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness8硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 6：Selection of an alternativeWe merely have to choose the alternative that generated the highest score in step 5. Identification of a problemIdentification of decision cr

11、iteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness9硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 7：Implementation of the alternativeThis step is concerned with put

12、ting the decision into action. Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness10硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交

13、易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Step 8：Evaluation of decision effectivenessThe last step in the decision-making process appraises the result of decision to see whether it has corrected the problem.(Chapter 13)Identification of a problemIdentification of decision criteriaAllocation of weights to criteriaDevelopment

14、 of alternativesAnalysis of alternativesSelection of an alternativeImplementation of the alternativeEvaluation of decision effectiveness11硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Making Decisions：The Rational ModelThe problem is clear and unambiguous.A single well-defined goal is to be achieved.All

15、 alternatives and consequences are known.Preferences are clear.Preferences are constant and stable.No time or cost constraints exist.Final choice will maximize economic payoff. 12硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Modification of the Rational Model Bounded RationalityWhat the managers do is c

16、onstruct simplified models that extract the essential features from problems without capturing all of their complexities.A decision in which “good enough” solutions are selected. 13硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Common Errors are Committed in the Decision-making ProcessHeuristicsvJudgment

17、 shortcuts Availability heuristicRepresentative heuristic Escalation of commitment14硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 How Do Problems DifferWell-structured problemsStraightforward, familiar, easily defined problems.Ill-structured problemsNew problems in which information is ambiguous or inco

18、mplete.15硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 How Do Decisions DifferProgrammed decisionA repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.vProcedurevRulevPolicyNonprogrammed decisionSuch decisions are unique and nonrecurring.16硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Types of Pro

19、blems, Types of Decision, and Level in the Organization Ill-StructuredWell-StructuredType of problem Top LowerLevel in organizationProgrammed decisionsNonprogrammed decisions17硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Decision Making Styles AnalyticConceptualBehavioralDirectiveHighLowRationalIntuiti

20、veWay of ThinkingTolerance for Ambiguity18硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Advantages of Group Decision Making provide more complete information bring a diversity of experience and perspectives generate more alternatives increases acceptance of a solution increases legitimacy19硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品

21、买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Disdvantages of Group Decision Making time-consuming inefficient members of a group are never perfectly equal pressures to conform (group think) ambiguous responsibility20硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴硬商品买卖在阿里巴巴 软商品交易在阿里巧巧软商品交易在阿里巧巧 Improve Group Decision Making Brainstorming An idea-genera

22、ting process that encourages alternatives while withholding criticism. Nominal group technique A decision-making technique in which group members are physically present but operate independently. Electronic meeting A type of nominal group technique in which participants are linked by computer.21Thank you!22